Market CloseNº 46·3Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
Gold Closes Below $4,000 at $3,987.70 as New York Sells the Asian Rebound
Gold fell $44.82 (1.11%) on a day with no U.S. data and no bond trading. It is gold’s first close below $4,000 since Nov 3. Silver held a 0.28% gain at $51.67.
By the Ausecure Trading Desk · 7 min read
Gold
$3,987.70
−1.11% from $4,032.52 Tuesday
−2.0% from $4,070.59 Nov 6 close
+2.9% from $3,875.65 Oct 30 close
−7.2% from $4,341.10 Dec 31, futures
Silver
$51.67
+0.28% from $51.53 Tuesday
−0.5% from $51.94 Nov 6 close
+5.2% from $49.13 Oct 30 close
−27.1% from $70.13 Dec 31, futures
Fed odds from fed funds futures (our calculation); next Fed decision Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET. The YTD tab uses COMEX futures daily closes. For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 11, 2026. For the Asian rebound and the morning levels, see the pre-market note.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $3,987.70 an ounce at the 5:00 PM ET close, down $44.82 (1.11%) from Tuesday’s $4,032.52.
- The day: gold rose to $4,067.10 in Asian hours, then fell $79.40 from there. The dollar index rose to its highest since April 2025, Reuters reported.
- New York: gold fell $14.89 in the first 15 minutes after the stock market opened. It fell again when oil jumped on Iran’s nuclear stance, and closed a 15-minute bar below $4,000 at 1:00 PM ET.
- The Fed: no Fed speakers and no data, with federal offices closed. Fed funds futures still price a December hike as certain.
- Silver price today: $51.67, up $0.14 (0.28%). It gave back most of a 2.4% morning gain. The gold/silver ratio fell to 77.2 from 78.3.
Why is gold down today?
Our pre-market note had gold at $4,038.78 at 8:30 AM ET. It flagged the night low of $4,026.60 below, with Tuesday’s low of $4,013.64 behind it. Gold broke both in the first hour of New York trading.
- The dollar, overnight. Gold’s high was $4,067.10 at 2:30 AM ET. By 9:15 AM ET it was $4,031.04, down $36.06. The dollar index rose from 102.33 to 102.90 over the same hours.
- The stock open. Gold fell $14.89 in the 15 minutes to 9:45 AM ET, on tick volume 2.6 times the median. Gold futures fell $9.50 in the first five minutes. The dollar and oil held flat, and we found no headline.
- Oil and Iran. Brent rose $1.09 to $94.52 in the 15 minutes to 10:30 AM ET, and gold fell $11.94 to $4,006.48. Reuters tied oil’s rise to Iran’s security chief saying enriched nuclear material won’t leave the country.
- $4,000. Gold held between $3,998.50 and $4,010 for two hours. It closed a 15-minute bar at $3,993.23 at 1:00 PM ET, down $7.22, on normal volume. No headline lined up.
- The afternoon. Gold’s low was $3,982.69 at 3:15 PM ET. It closed $5.01 above that.
New York added no rate news. Bonds were shut, and the odds of two or more Fed hikes by January slipped 1.7 points from 8:30 AM ET. Our read is follow-through selling after Tuesday’s 2.6% drop, with stop orders below the morning’s flagged levels adding to the stock-open and oil legs. We can see the timing and the volume, not who sold.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
Today’s economic data and what it means
There were no U.S. releases. Federal offices were closed for Veterans Day, and the data resume Thursday.
| Report | Forecast | Actual | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. data | none | none | Veterans Day. Bonds closed; stocks open |
| Saudi output | n/a | 10.56M | October, barrels a day, OPEC. Up more than 2 million from September |
| Jobless claims | 194K | Thu | Week to Nov 7, Thursday 8:30 AM ET. Prior 189K |
| PPI | +0.4% | Fri | October, Friday 8:30 AM ET. Core forecast 0.3% |
OPEC (monthly report): Saudi Arabia pumped 10.563 million barrels a day in October, the most since the Iran war began in February, Al Jazeera reported, citing the report and Reuters. OPEC+ output rose about 2.04 million barrels a day to 41.23 million. Gold fell $1.97 in the 15 minutes after the article was posted at 3:45 PM ET.
What it adds up to: no new data, so Tuesday’s CPI still sets the Fed picture. Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s producer prices are next.
How much was the dollar?
The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 102.91, up 0.65% from Tuesday. Reuters said it was the highest since April 2025. Most of the rise came before 9:00 AM ET. In New York it held between 102.86 and 102.96. Measured against the dollar index, gold fell about 0.5%, so the dollar accounts for about half of the 1.11% drop. Over the past two weeks gold is down 1.2% and the dollar up 0.6%.
The bond market was closed for Veterans Day. The last readings are Tuesday’s: the 10-year at 5.00% and the 30-year at 5.36% in our data, and the 2-year at 4.75%. The Treasury’s figures for Tuesday had the 10-year real yield at 2.78%, up 0.12 point, and the 10-year breakeven at 2.20%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%. The next survey is out Thursday at noon ET.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks
Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.
Fed hike odds after a quiet day
There were no Fed speeches or releases today. Fed funds futures, our calculation, moved little from this morning.
| Meeting, total hikes | Tue | Today | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9: 25 bp | 97% | 91% | A December hike stays priced as certain |
| Dec 9: 50 bp | 3% | 9% | 8% at 8:30 AM ET. Most of the change came overnight |
| Jan 27: 50 bp+ | 63% | 68% | Two or more hikes by Jan 27. 69% this morning |
| Mar 17: 75 bp+ | 43% | 48% | Three or more hikes by Mar 17. 49% this morning |
Futures price about 0.61 point of hikes by March 17, against 0.60 point at Tuesday’s close. The odds rose overnight and eased slightly during New York trading, while gold fell. Thursday brings five Fed speakers, starting with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack at 8:30 AM ET.
Oil, Iran and world news
Brent closed at $92.61, up $0.53 from Tuesday, in our data. Its high was $94.73 in the 15 minutes to 10:30 AM ET, the same 15 minutes gold fell $11.94. Gold fell when oil rose, and oil’s later fade didn’t lift gold.
- Iran’s uranium: Iran’s security chief said enriched nuclear material won’t leave the country, Reuters reported. Reuters put Brent at $93.64 at 12:04 PM ET.
- Hormuz: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, told Al Jazeera the strait will “never return” to its pre-war status. He said Tehran is waiting for a U.S. reply to its seven conditions. The interview was posted at 4:03 PM ET, and gold rose $0.57 in that 15 minutes.
- The World Gold Council had no new research today. Its latest ETF report (Nov 5) said global gold ETFs added “US$2.7bn in October.” The Silver Institute had no new release. Its Interim Silver Market Review is due in mid-November.
Stocks rose; gold didn’t follow
The S&P 500 closed up 1.31% at 7,619.38, the Nasdaq up 1.60% and the Dow up 0.49%. The Russell 2000 rose 0.88%. The semiconductor index rose 5.66% after CoreWeave’s results, Reuters reported. The VIX fell 1.97 points to 17.49. Gold fell while stocks rose. Gold miners fell 0.3% against gold, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners 1.9% against silver.
Silver price today: up 0.28% after a 2.4% morning gain
Spot silver closed at $51.67, up $0.14 from Tuesday’s close of $51.53. Its high was $53.19 at 2:30 AM ET, with gold’s. Its low was $51.45 on Tuesday evening. At 8:30 AM ET it was $52.76, up 2.39%.
From 8:30 AM ET silver fell 2.07% and gold 1.26%, so the ratio rose from 76.55 to 77.17. Silver slipped below $52 by 1:30 PM ET and ended at its New York low. We found no silver-specific news.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days
Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 13 to Nov 11 (64 trading days):
Gold/silver ratio, daily futures close
Biggest one-day risesBiggest one-day falls
- Aug 20Ratio −1.95 as gold rose 0.6% and silver rose 3.5%.
- Sep 10Ratio +2.91 as gold fell 1.2% and silver 5.4%.
- Oct 14Ratio +3.34, the biggest one-day rise, as gold fell 1.7% and silver 6.1%.
- Oct 22Ratio +1.87 as gold fell 2.2% and silver 4.6%.
- Oct 30Ratio +2.17 as gold fell 3.3% and silver 5.9%.
- Nov 11Ratio −1.58 as gold fell 0.9% and silver rose 1.1%.
Each dot is one day in the 90 days. Across: gold’s change. Up: silver’s.
Black line: silver’s average move against gold’s over 90 days. Dashed: a move the same size as gold’s. 1 month: 1.7×. 1 year: 1.9×.
| Level | Ratio | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year high | 81.80 | Nov 21, 2025 |
| 1-month and 90-day high | 79.46 | Nov 3 |
| Today’s close | 77.29 | Nov 11 |
| 1-month low | 69.50 | Oct 9 |
| 90-day low | 65.65 | Sep 9 |
| 1-year low | 44.16 | Jan 26, the day of silver’s highest close in the year |
1 month: since the Oct 9 close. 90 days: since Aug 13. 1 year: since Nov 11, 2025. All to today’s close, from daily COMEX futures closes.
Today broke the pattern. Gold futures fell 0.9% and silver futures rose 1.1%, so the ratio fell 1.58. In spot, silver led both ways: up more in Asia, down more in New York.
Gold/silver ratio: where 77.2 sits in the longer history
From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:
- The last time the ratio was this high
- The last time the ratio was this high before this autumn was Nov 26, 2025, at 78.7. A month later it was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.
- A year ago
- A year ago (Nov 10, 2025) the ratio was 82.2, with gold at $4,122.00 and silver at $50.18. To Tuesday’s close, gold futures were down 2.2% over the year and silver up 1.8%.
- Before gold’s record
- The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day.
- Since the record
- Gold futures are down 24.2% and silver 55.6%, to Tuesday’s close.
- Hawkish days
- Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, and silver fell more on 19. Today doesn’t count: bonds were closed.
- Other jumps to this level
- Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77 after weeks well below it five times (February 2003, October 2003, October 2008, July 2015, August 2021). Three months later it was lower all five times. Five cases is a small sample.
| Ratio level | Ratio | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| A year ago | 82.2 | Nov 10, 2025 futures close |
| 90-day high | 79.46 | Nov 3 futures close |
| Tue close | 78.26 | Spot, where today started |
| Today’s close | 77.17 | 5:00 PM ET, spot |
| Round number | 77.0 | Closed above it from 4:00 PM ET |
| This morning | 76.55 | 8:30 AM ET, in the pre-market note |
| Day’s low | 76.38 | 5:30 AM ET, spot |
| 90-day median | 68.72 | Daily futures closes since Aug 13 |
| At gold’s record | 46.6 | Jan 29, 2026, gold’s record close |
In the past 90 days, silver has moved about 1.5 times as far as gold. Today it rose while gold fell. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Night highs | $4,067.10 | $53.19 | 2:30 AM ET, the day’s highs |
| Morning level | $4,038.78 | $52.76 | 8:30 AM ET, in the pre-market note |
| Tue close | $4,032.52 | $51.53 | Silver closed above it all day |
| Night lows | $4,026.60 | $51.45 | Flagged this morning. Gold broke it at 9:45 AM ET |
| Tue lows | $4,013.64 | $51.13 | Gold closed below at 10:30 AM ET. Silver didn’t test it |
| Round numbers | $4,000 | $52.00 | Gold’s first close below at 1:00 PM ET, silver’s by 1:30 PM ET |
| Day’s lows | $3,982.69 | $51.64 | Gold’s at 3:15 PM ET, silver’s at the close |
| Round numbers | $3,950 | $51.00 | Not tested |
| Nov 3 close | $3,930.32 | $49.80 | Last 5:00 PM ET gold close below $4,000 before today |
Gold’s range today was $84.41, from $3,982.69 to $4,067.10. That is 1.1 times the median daily range of about $76 in our 15-minute data. Gold closed $79.40 below its high and $5.01 above its low.
Trend check
On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Gold’s live reading is bear: its 12-month return, after cash returns, is 6.7% below zero, and a 7.1% rise would turn it. Silver’s live reading turned from correction to bear today. Its 12-month return is 0.75% below zero, and a 0.76% rise would turn it back. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.
Economic calendar: what’s next for gold
- Wed Nov 11, 6:00 PM ET
- Gold and silver reopen.
- Thu Nov 12, 8:30 AM ET
- Weekly jobless claims and the first bond-market session since Tuesday. Hammack at 8:30 AM ET, Governor Michael Barr at 10:00 AM ET and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee late morning. Freddie Mac’s mortgage survey at noon and a 30-year Treasury auction at 1:00 PM ET. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid in the afternoon, New York Fed President John Williams at 6:30 PM ET.
- Fri Nov 13, 8:30 AM ET
- Producer price index for October. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at 9:40 AM ET, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman at 10:50 AM ET and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 7:00 PM ET.
- Mon Nov 16
- CFTC positioning report, delayed from Friday by the holiday.
- Wed Nov 18
- Minutes of the October Fed meeting.
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This weekAusecure closing ask
| Day | Gold | Change | Silver | Silver change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonNov 9 | $4,145.10 | +1.8% | $53.56 | +2.8% |
| TueNov 10 | $4,036.70 | −2.6% | $51.68 | −3.5% |
| WedNov 11 | $3,992.00 | −1.1% | $51.80 | +0.2% |
| WeekendWeekly email | Read last week’s | |||
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What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold closed $44.82 lower than Tuesday, below $4,000. Silver closed $0.14 higher.
- Your price
- Gold moved $84 between its high and low today. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
- Data days move fast
- Jobless claims on Thursday and producer prices on Friday both come out at 8:30 AM ET.
- Premium
- Most products on our site show their “% over spot” under the price, so you can compare a coin with a bar on equal terms.
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- We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Spot gold closed at $3,987.70 an ounce at 5:00 PM ET on Nov 11, 2026, down $44.82 (1.11%) from Tuesday. It traded between $3,982.69 and $4,067.10. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.
Why did gold fall below $4,000 with no data out?
The dollar index rose overnight and took back gold’s Asian gain by 9:15 AM ET. In New York, gold fell $14.89 at the stock open and $11.94 when oil jumped on Iran’s nuclear stance. Neither leg had a rate trigger, since bonds were closed.
Why did silver end higher while gold fell?
Silver rose 2.4% in Asian hours, more than gold. It then fell more than gold in New York, 2.07% against 1.26% from 8:30 AM ET. That left it up 0.28% on the day, and the ratio fell to 77.2.
Is gold below $4,000 a good time to buy?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Gold is down $153 in two days, and producer prices come out Friday. Some buyers wait for the data; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:00 PM ET on Nov 11, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: OANDA spot gold and silver, TVC dollar index, Treasury yields and Brent crude via TradingView; CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves); Federal Reserve Board (calendar); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); OPEC monthly oil market report (via Al Jazeera and Reuters); Al Jazeera (Ghalibaf interview); Reuters; World Gold Council (Gold ETF Flows: October 2026, Nov 5 2026); The Silver Institute; Forex Factory economic calendar; COMEX gold and silver futures, Brent futures, stock index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED (2-year Treasury yield); Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX front-month futures and T-bill rates via Yahoo Finance).
How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
