Gold Price Today: Gold Falls 2.1% to $3,903 as Trump Says No Iran Deal Is Needed

This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:45 AM ET on Nov 12, 2026. For Wednesday’s session, when gold closed below $4,000 at $3,987.70, read the market close note.

Update, 9:00 AM ET: gold closed the 8:45 to 9:00 AM ET bar at $3,890.28, below the Nov 3 low of $3,895.57, after touching $3,885.01. Silver closed that bar at $50.21.

Why is gold down today?

Gold fell in three steps from Wednesday evening. The dollar index ended the night where it started, so the drop is gold’s own.

1. Asia (6:00 to 8:15 PM ET Wednesday). Gold rose $32 from $3,968.77 to $4,000.73. No 15-minute bar closed above $4,000. By 9:30 PM ET it was back under $3,990.
2. The night (8:15 PM to 3:00 AM ET). Gold drifted down $43 to $3,957.23.
3. London’s open (3:00 to 4:00 AM ET). Gold fell $36 to $3,928.83 and broke Nov 3’s close of $3,930.32. Silver fell from $51.48 to $50.77. The dollar index didn’t rise. We found no single headline at that time.
4. A pause (4:00 to 8:00 AM ET). Gold rebounded to $3,955.77, then slipped to $3,936.69.
5. Trump’s post (8:00 to 8:45 AM ET). Gold fell $33.51 to $3,903.18. Trading in the 8:15 bar ran at four times the 20-day norm. Jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET added a $7.47 drop.

Our read is that the Iran post did what escalation has done all month: oil rose, hike bets firmed and gold fell. We can see the timing and the volume, not who sold. Fed funds futures now give about 71% odds of at least two hikes by the January 27 meeting, from 68% at Wednesday’s close.

It wasn’t the dollar. The dollar index is 102.95, up 0.03% from Wednesday’s close.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

Jobless claims

The Labor Department said 200,000 people filed first-time claims in the week to Nov 7. That was 6,000 above the forecast. The prior week was revised to 191,000 from 189,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.697 million. Layoffs stay low, so the job market isn’t giving the Fed a reason to slow its hikes. Gold fell $7.47 in the 8:30 to 8:45 AM ET bar.

Later today

The government’s weekly oil inventory figures and Freddie Mac’s mortgage survey come at noon ET. The Treasury sells 30-year bonds at 1:00 PM ET.

What it adds up to: claims were a small miss and didn’t change the Fed picture. Hike odds firmed overnight on oil. Friday’s producer prices are the next big release.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index is 102.95, up 0.03% from Wednesday’s close. It reached 103.08 overnight. Reuters said it is near its highest since April 2025. Priced against the index’s basket, gold is down 2.1%. Over the past two weeks gold is down 3.2% and the dollar is up 0.9%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.00% and the 30-year 5.35%, both within 0.01 point of Tuesday’s last trade. Bonds were closed Wednesday. The 2-year is 4.76%, up 0.02 point. Treasury’s last figures, for Tuesday, put the 10-year real yield at 2.78%, up 0.12 point on the day. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%. The new survey comes out at noon ET today.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices keep moving through the morning. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

The Fed: seven speakers today, hike odds firmer

No Fed official spoke between Wednesday’s close and this morning, and the Board posted no new releases. Seven speak today: Cleveland’s Beth Hammack at 8:30 AM ET, Governor Michael Barr at 10:00 AM ET, Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee at 11:15 AM ET, San Francisco’s Mary Daly at 1:10 PM ET, Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid at 1:30 PM ET and New York’s John Williams at 6:30 PM ET.

Fed funds futures price a December 9 hike as certain, as of 8:24 AM ET. Odds of a half point are about 7%, from 9% at Wednesday’s close. Odds of at least two hikes by January 27 are about 71%, from 68%. Odds of at least three by March 17 are about 49%, from 48%.

Iran, oil and Nvidia

Iran

“We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed,” President Trump posted on Truth Social at about 8:05 AM ET, CNBC reported. He added that the U.S. has Iran’s money “and we’ve got their Strait!” Gold fell $26 in the 25 minutes after the post.

Oil

Brent crude is $94.00, up $1.39 from Wednesday’s close. It jumped from $92.19 to $93.79 between 8:00 and 8:05 AM ET.

Nvidia

Nvidia’s board said Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO and director, effective immediately. Chief financial officer Colette Kress is interim CEO, and the board named Harvey Jones its first chair. The release came at about 8:45 AM ET, after the board met Wednesday night following reports about Huang’s personal relationships. Nvidia was down 7% before the open.

Stocks

Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.3% and S&P 500 futures down 0.7% at 8:24 AM ET. Other chipmakers rose before the open: AMD 10%, Broadcom 7% and Micron 6% at 8:51 AM ET. Gold fell with stock futures this morning.

Silver price today: down 2.42%, at $50.42

Spot silver is $50.42, down $1.25 from Wednesday’s close of $51.67. It peaked at $51.95 at 8:00 PM ET Wednesday and is at its low for the night. It is less than 50 cents above $50, where it last closed on Nov 3.

Silver fell in the same stretches as gold, a little more each time. The ratio rose from 77.17 to 77.41. It dipped to 76.87 at 3:00 AM ET, then rose as silver fell harder in London. The Silver Institute hasn’t published anything new this week; its interim market review came out on Nov 13 last year.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 13 to Nov 11 (64 trading days):

Over 90 days silver’s daily move has averaged 1.48 times gold’s, and 1.66 times over the past month. This morning silver is down 2.42% with gold down 2.12%, about 1.1 times, so silver fell with gold but less than the pattern. On Wednesday the futures ratio fell 1.76 as silver rose with gold down. The intraday view shows silver’s extra drop came at the London open.

Gold/silver ratio: where 77.4 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

Recent highs

The ratio settled at 78.87 on Tuesday and at 79.46 on Nov 3, the highest close in 90 days. Before this month it was last above 77.4 a year ago; it peaked at 81.8 on Nov 21, 2025.

A year ago

A year ago (Nov 11, 2025) the ratio was 81.3, with gold at $4,116 and silver at $50.62. To Wednesday’s settlement, gold futures were down 2.8% over the year and silver up 2.5%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before, 51.2 a week before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 24.8% and silver 54.9%, to Wednesday’s settlement.

Rate days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, silver fell more than gold on 19, and the ratio rose on 19. Today the 2-year is up 0.02 point, so it isn’t one of those days.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77 after weeks well below it five times: February 2003, October 2003, October 2008, July 2015 and August 2021. Three months later it was lower in all five. Five cases is a small sample, and it is history, not a forecast.

In the past 90 days, the ratio’s biggest one-day rises came with gold down. This morning it rose 0.24 with gold down 2.1%. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels we’re watching

Gold’s range since the reopen is $99.75, about 1.3 times a typical full day over the past two months, before New York has opened.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Their 12-month and one-month returns, after cash returns, were both down. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. Gold’s live 12-month return is 8.3% below zero, so it would take a 9.1% rise to turn it positive. Silver’s live 12-month return is 3.4% below zero.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold is $84.52 below Wednesday’s close and $97.55 below its overnight high. Silver is $1.25 lower.

Your price

Gold moved $33.51 between 8:00 and 8:45 AM ET. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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