Gold Breaks Its October Low and Closes at $3,877.59 as Yields Jump

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 12, 2026. For the overnight selling and the morning levels, see the pre-market note.

Why is gold down today?

Our pre-market note had gold at $3,903.18 at 8:45 AM ET. It flagged the Nov 3 low of $3,895.57, with the Oct 30 low of $3,870.32 behind it. Gold closed below both by 10:00 AM ET.

1. Asia and London. Gold failed at $4,000 on Wednesday evening, with a high of $4,000.73. It fell $36 when London opened, from 3:00 to 4:00 AM ET.
2. Iran and oil. Mr. Trump posted at about 8:05 AM ET that “We don’t need a deal with Iran,” CNBC reported. Brent rose $1.60 in five minutes. Gold fell $33.63 from 8:00 to 8:45 AM ET, with jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET in that stretch.
3. Rates, after the open. Gold closed a 15-minute bar below the Nov 3 low at 9:00 AM ET and bounced to $3,903.57 by 9:30 AM ET. It then fell $48.59 to $3,854.98 by 10:15 AM ET, on tick volume three to four times the median. The dollar index rose from 102.87 to 103.20. The 10-year yield rose about 0.05 point, and 2-year note futures fell.
4. The afternoon. Gold held between $3,855 and $3,886 for the rest of the day. Yields kept rising after a weak 30-year bond auction at 1:00 PM ET, and gold didn’t make a new low.

Stocks rose during the main leg, so this wasn’t a broad sell-off. Cash Treasuries traded a full session for the first time since Tuesday’s consumer price report, after Wednesday’s Veterans Day closure. The 2-year yield ended up 0.13 point and fed funds futures added hike odds. Our read is that the rates move broke the Nov 3 and Oct 30 lows, and stop orders below them added to the selling. We can see the timing and the volume, not who sold.

Since February, gold has tended to fall on days when oil, the dollar and yields rose and copper fell, in daily futures closes. Today matched that. Stocks didn’t, since they were up while gold sat at its low. That is a description of past trading, not a forecast.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

Jobless claims

The Labor Department counted 200,000 first-time claims in the week to Nov 7, against 194,000 forecast. The prior week was revised up to 191,000. Continuing claims fell 20,000 to 1.697 million. A small rise, not enough to change the Fed picture. Gold fell $7.47 in the 15 minutes after the release.

Existing home sales

Sales fell 5.5% in October to a 3.75 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said. That is the lowest since August 2010, Reuters reported. The median price was $416,700, up 0.4% from a year earlier. NAR’s chief economist blamed mortgage rates. Gold kept falling after the 10:00 AM ET release, and yields kept rising.

Mortgage rates

The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.11% in Freddie Mac’s new weekly survey, down 0.07 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.45%. The survey ran before today’s rise in Treasury yields.

30-year bond auction

The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.441%. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.36, TreasuryDirect shows. Yields rose after the result. Gold rose $6.55 in the 15 minutes after it.

What it adds up to: the data didn’t move the Fed picture. Bond trading after Tuesday’s CPI did, and it took gold through two lows. October producer prices come out Friday at 8:30 AM ET.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 103.18, up 0.25% from Wednesday. Its high was 103.24 at 12:45 PM ET. Reuters said it touched its highest since April 2025. Measured against the dollar index, gold fell about 2.5%, so the dollar accounts for only a small part of the drop. Over the past two weeks gold is down 3.2% and the dollar up 1.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.13% and the 30-year at 5.46% in our data, up 0.13 and 0.10 point from Tuesday. The Treasury’s 2-year yield was 4.86%, up 0.13 point. The Treasury’s figures had the 10-year real yield at 2.86%, up 0.08 point and its highest in 20 trading days, and the 10-year breakeven at 2.24%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Fed hike odds rose with yields

Fed funds futures, our calculation, added hike odds during the day. Most of the change came after 8:30 AM ET.

Futures price about 0.65 point of hikes by March 17, against 0.61 point at Wednesday’s close. Two Fed presidents spoke after gold’s low, Reuters reported. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, a voter this year, favors smaller, more frequent hikes and said the Fed isn’t “behind the curve.” San Francisco’s Mary Daly said her bias is that “further tightening will be needed.” Governor Michael Barr spoke on AI and inequality at 10:00 AM ET, with nothing on rates.

Oil, Iran and world news

Brent closed at $95.73, up $3.12 from Wednesday, in our data. It rose most of the day, to a high of $96.28. Gold fell with the first jump after 8:05 AM ET. Oil’s later gains came while gold held its low.

Nvidia

Jensen Huang resigned as chief executive, Nvidia said at 8:48 AM ET. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. Gold didn’t move on it.

Gold Council

No new World Gold Council research today. Its latest ETF report (Nov 5) said global gold ETFs added “US$2.7bn in October.”

Silver Institute

No new release. Its Interim Silver Market Review is due in mid-November.

Stocks slipped; the selling went to bonds

The S&P 500 closed down 0.35% at 7,592.40, the Nasdaq down 0.39% and the Dow down 0.36%. The Russell 2000 fell 1.66%. The VIX rose 1.21 points to 18.70. Stocks were higher while gold fell in the morning and gave it back later. Gold miners fell 1.2% against gold, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners 1.1% against silver.

Silver price today: down 3.11%, above its Nov 3 low

Spot silver closed at $50.07, down $1.60 from Wednesday’s close of $51.67. Its high was $51.95 at 8:15 PM ET on Wednesday. It closed a 15-minute bar below $50 at 10:15 AM ET and made its low of $49.70 in that bar. That is $1.08 above its Nov 3 low of $48.62.

Silver fell 1.13 times as far as gold in spot, so the ratio rose from 77.17 to 77.45. It moved with gold all day. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 14 to Nov 12 (64 trading days):

Today followed the direction, with a smaller multiple. Gold futures fell 2.96% and silver futures 3.66%, so silver fell 1.24 times as far. Over 90 days the multiple is 1.47.

Gold/silver ratio: where 77.4 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

This autumn’s high

The ratio was 79.46 on Nov 3 and 78.87 on Nov 10, in futures. Today’s 77.7 in futures is below both.

A year ago

A year ago (Nov 11, 2025) the ratio was 81.3, with gold at $4,116.30 and silver at $50.62. To Wednesday’s close, gold futures were down 2.8% over the year and silver up 2.5%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 24.8% and silver 54.9%, to Wednesday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 30 days. Gold fell on 23 of them, silver fell more on 20, and the ratio rose on 20. Today fit: the 2-year rose 0.13 point, gold fell and silver fell more.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77 after weeks well below it five times (February 2003, October 2003, October 2008, July 2015, August 2021). Three months later it was lower all five times. Five cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, silver has moved about 1.5 times as far as gold. Today it fell 1.2 times as far. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $148.15, from $3,852.58 to $4,000.73. That is twice the median daily range of about $76 in our 15-minute data. Gold closed $25.01 above its low. Our spot data starts Sep 23, and today’s low is the lowest in it.

In COMEX futures, gold is down 10.6% this year and 27.0% from its record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29. Silver futures are down 28.7% this year and 56.6% from their record close of $115.08 on Jan 26. Futures show where price last turned lower:

Gold futures rose from $3,353 to $3,843 in August and September 2025 with one brief dip, to $3,660.50 on Sep 18. So there are few earlier lows between today’s price and $3,353. Silver has three within 8%. Platinum and palladium futures stayed above their lows for the year. That is a description of past trading, not a forecast.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Gold’s live 12-month return, after cash returns, is 9.1% below zero, and a 10.0% rise would turn it. Silver’s is 4.9% below zero, with a 5.1% rise needed. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed $110.11 lower than Wednesday, below its October low. Silver closed $1.60 lower, just above $50. Our ask at the close was $3,881.60 for gold and $50.20 for silver.

Your price

Gold moved $148 between its high and low today. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.

Data days move fast

Producer prices come out Friday at 8:30 AM ET, with five Fed speakers after them.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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