Gold Closes Up 0.5% at $4,017.19 as Buyers Defend $3,990 at the New York Open
Spot gold ended Monday at $4,017.19, up $21.38 from Friday, with nearly all of the gain made overnight. In New York it dropped $19 at the 9:30 AM ET open, to $3,988.83, and was bought back within 15 minutes, the fourth time in four sessions that buyers stepped in between $3,975 and $3,990. Silver rose 0.2%. Stocks rallied, and futures still price a December Fed hike as likely.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $4,017.19 an ounce on spot at the 5:00 PM ET close, up $21.38 (0.54%) from Friday’s $3,995.81 and down $8.22 from $4,025.41 in our 8:34 AM ET pre-market price. The day’s range was $3,978.18 (Sunday night) to $4,030.07 (1:00 PM ET).
- Silver price today: $53.98, up 8 cents (0.16%) from Friday and down 27 cents from this morning. Its low, $53.01 at 9:45 AM ET, dipped 2 cents under Friday’s low and held above $53.00. The gold/silver ratio ended near 74.4.
- What moved gold: the gain came overnight, when buyers held the $3,978 low at the Asian open and lifted gold back over $4,000. In New York gold fell $19 in the first 25 minutes after the 9:30 AM ET stock-market open, to $3,988.83, while S&P 500 futures rose, and recovered all of it by 10:45 AM ET. It then traded between $4,008 and $4,030.
- Data today: the Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index rose to 13.4 in October from 9.8, while its production index fell to 15.8 from 29.5. The Treasury sold $69 billion of 2-year notes at 4.708%, with foreign-linked bidders taking a smaller share than in September. Gold moved little on either.
- The Fed: as of 5:02 PM ET, fed funds futures imply about a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting, about where they were this morning and up from 74% at Friday’s close. For Wednesday’s decision they imply about 9% for a hike.
- Stocks and the dollar: the S&P 500 closed up 0.70% and the chip index 2.8%. The dollar index rose 0.26% to 102.02, and gold rose anyway.
Why is gold up today?
Gold was at $4,025.41 at 8:34 AM ET, as we covered in our pre-market note. It ended the day $21.38 above Friday’s close, and all of that gain was in place before New York opened. In New York trading it slipped $8.
1. Overnight, buyers held the low again. As Asian markets opened Sunday night, gold fell to $3,978.18 on heavy volume, its third dip into the $3,975 to $3,990 area since Thursday night. Buyers stepped in within the same 15 minutes, and two bursts of buying, late in the Asian morning and at the London open, took it back above $4,000 and up to $4,025. The dollar was flat, so the rise came from gold itself.
2. A fourth test at the New York open. Gold drifted from $4,025 to $4,008 before the stock market opened, as the dollar index rose from 101.88 to 101.97. When stocks opened at 9:30 AM ET, gold fell another $19 in about 25 minutes, to $3,988.83, on about twice normal volume. S&P 500 futures were rising in those minutes and the dollar index added only 0.07, so the selling was in gold. Buyers took it back to $4,005 in the next 15 minutes, and by 10:45 AM ET gold was at $4,022.
3. A quiet range into the Fed. From 11:00 AM ET to the close gold traded between $4,008 and $4,030, with volume below normal for most of the afternoon. Its high, $4,030.07, came at about 1:00 PM ET, just after the 2-year note auction, as the dollar index dipped. It did not reach Friday’s high of $4,034.09.
Data today: at 10:30 AM ET the Dallas Fed said its Texas manufacturing activity index rose to 13.4 in October from 9.8, while production fell to 15.8 from 29.5 and raw-materials prices rose to 55.3. Gold was already rising from its morning low and kept going; the 10-year yield barely moved. At 1:00 PM ET the Treasury sold $69 billion of 2-year notes at 4.708%; bidders tied to foreign buyers took 45.7%, down from 57.8% in September. Gold reached its high of the day in the same 15 minutes, a move of about $6.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
What did the dollar do?
The U.S. dollar index ended at 102.02, up 0.26% from Friday’s 101.75, most of it after the New York open. A stronger dollar usually weighs on gold, yet gold rose 0.54%. Measured against a basket of major currencies (gold × DXY), gold rose 0.80% since Friday, so today’s gain came from gold itself. In New York trading the dollar did matter at the margin: gold’s slide before and into the open came as the index rose from 101.88 to 102.05.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks
Live bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Every order is priced off the live market and confirmed when you place it.
Did the Iran talks move gold?
Not much. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, the three countries in the new Mecca defence pact, met Iran’s president and security chief in Tehran on Monday. The visit was announced over the weekend, and oil and gold had already reacted to it at Sunday’s reopen. During New York hours each headline from the talks moved gold $2 or less:
- 11:49 AM ET: Iranian state media said Iran and the three countries agreed to continue talks. Gold rose about $2 in the next 15 minutes.
- 3:38 PM ET: an aide to Iran’s security chief told state TV that Iran is open to a shorter timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz if its conditions are met; this was not confirmed by international news agencies. Gold rose about $1.
- 3:44 PM ET: Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry stressed “the importance of opening channels of negotiation to prevent a return to military escalation” (Al Jazeera). Gold barely moved.
- 4:30 PM ET: a senior U.S. official told Al Jazeera the conflict will end soon “one way or another”. Gold rose about $1.50 in that 15-minute bar, on light volume.
There was no new statement from President Trump on Iran today. On Sunday he said on Fox News that he was weighing whether to make a deal or “finish them off”. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued, and Israel holds an election on Tuesday.
Oil: U.S. crude settled at $101.76 a barrel, down $1.51, according to CNBC. Brent’s front-month contract changed from December to January over the weekend, so headlines saying oil fell 6% compare two different contracts; on the same contract Brent fell less than 1% today. In New York trading Brent reached its high at about 12:15 PM ET while gold held steady.
What are the odds of a Fed hike this week and in December?
The Fed announces its decision Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET (1:00 PM CT). As of 5:02 PM ET, fed funds futures imply about a 91% chance of no change and 9% for a quarter-point hike, little changed from 8% at Friday’s close. December is where the market expects a move: futures imply about a 79% chance of a hike at the Dec 9 meeting, compared with about 79% this morning and 74% at Friday’s close, and about 81% odds of at least one hike by then (76% Friday).
The rise since Friday came overnight and rests on a small price change: the December futures contract is 0.02 point lower than Friday, and one tick moves the odds by a few points. Lower oil over the weekend did not lower hike pricing. Fed officials are in their quiet period, and no Fed speeches or policy statements came out today. Our chairman Peter Thomas will discuss the decision on Asharq Bloomberg at 3:20 PM ET Wednesday.
Yields, stocks and mining shares
- Yields: the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.00%, unchanged from Friday, and the 30-year at 5.31%, down 0.02 point, on Treasury’s daily curve. The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, was 2.66%, also unchanged, according to Treasury data.
- Mortgage rates: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 22), down from 7.40% a week earlier, and the 15-year averaged 6.68%. The next survey is out Thursday.
- Stocks: the S&P 500 closed up 0.70%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.82% and the Dow 0.28%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 2.82%, and the VIX volatility index fell to 18.39. Gold and stocks rose together today, the reverse of Thursday and Friday, when gold fell with stocks.
- Mining shares: gold miners gained 0.7% against gold (GDX/GLD) and junior silver miners 1.0% against silver (SILJ/SLV), so mining shares did better than the metals today.
Why did silver lag gold today?
Silver ended at $53.98, up 8 cents (0.16%) from Friday, against gold’s 0.54% gain. It followed gold’s path but with smaller gains and the same drops. Overnight it rose from $53.90 to $54.42 at 11:15 PM ET Sunday, while gold climbed back over $4,000. In New York it fell harder than gold at the open, from $54.06 at 8:30 AM ET to $53.01 at 9:45 AM ET, 2 cents under Friday’s low of $53.03, before buyers took it back to $54.31 by 1:15 PM ET. In the afternoon it slipped under $54.00 again and closed at $53.98. We found no silver-specific news today; the extra weakness came in the same minutes as gold’s dips, which is typical for silver, a smaller market.
The gold/silver ratio ended near 74.4, which means an ounce of gold buys about 74.4 ounces of silver, up from 74.1 at Friday’s close and near the highest in our data since late September.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | What happened today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday’s high | $4,034.09 | $54.27 | Gold didn’t reach it; silver touched it four times in New York trading but never closed a 15-minute bar above it |
| Today’s high | $4,030.07 | $54.42 | Gold’s at about 1:00 PM ET; silver’s at 11:15 PM ET Sunday. Silver’s New York high was $54.31 |
| Round number | $4,000.00 | $54.00 | Gold closed 29 of 30 fifteen-minute bars above it in New York, the exception being 9:45 AM ET; silver closed half of them above and ended just below |
| New York low | $3,988.83 | $53.01 | Both at about 9:45 AM ET; bought back within 15 minutes and not retested |
| Overnight low | $3,978.18 | $53.62 | Set at the Asian open Sunday night; gold didn’t come back to it; silver went below it in the morning dip |
| Friday’s low | $3,975.65 | $53.03 | Gold stayed above it; silver dipped 2 cents under it at 9:45 AM ET and closed every bar above it |
Gold covered about $52 from high to low since Sunday evening, a bit less than a typical day in recent weeks ($58). Four tests of $3,975 to $3,990 since Thursday night have each been bought within one or two 15-minute bars.
Trend check: On our monthly trend model, gold and silver both ended September in a correction: the 12-month trend was still up (gold +4.2%, silver +25.3% after cash returns) while September itself fell. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a correction month 60% of the time; history, not a forecast. With four trading days left in October, gold’s trailing 12-month return is −6.3% after cash returns: if October ended at today’s level, the model would read bear for gold, and gold would need to rise about 6.8% by Oct 30 to avoid that. Silver’s 12-month trend is still up.
What’s next: Tuesday to Friday
Weekly Market Notes
The week in one email
Every weekend: how gold and silver closed each day, what moved them, and the levels for the week ahead.
Latest weekly emailSent Sunday, Oct 25This weekAusecure closing ask
| Day | Gold | Change | Silver | Silver change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonOct 26 · today | $4,021.20 | +0.5% | $54.10 | +0.1% |
| WeekendWeekly email | Read last week’s | |||
You’re subscribed.Our emails will go to .
Buying metal too? A free account lets you order at live prices and track every shipment.
What today means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold has now held above $3,975 on four tests since Thursday night, and each drop lasted 15 to 30 minutes. For buyers of coins and bars, the practical questions are what you pay over spot and when your price is set:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so an order placed at 9:30 AM ET today and one placed at 9:45 AM ET could be priced about $20 an ounce apart in gold. Our ask at the close was $4,021.20 for gold and $54.10 for silver.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products show their “% over spot” under the price, so a coin and a bar can be compared on equal terms. With the ratio near 74, an ounce of gold buys about 74 ounces of silver.
- Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
- Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
- Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
Auto-Buy places a recurring order for American Eagles or a 10 oz silver bar, weekly to every two months, priced at the live market on each order date. Every Auto-Buy order ships free and insured, you get a reminder before each one, and you can skip, pause or cancel anytime.
Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
Coins and bars from the U.S. Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, PAMP, Valcambi and more. Every order is 100% insured, tracked and shipped discreetly.
Open a free account to buy at live prices. A+ BBB rated, trusted since 2009, and every order 100% insured.
Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Spot gold closed Oct 26, 2026 at $4,017.19 an ounce at 5:00 PM ET, up $21.38 (0.54%) from Friday’s $3,995.81. The gain came overnight; in New York gold slipped $8 from our 8:34 AM ET price of $4,025.41. The day’s range was $3,978.18 to $4,030.07.
Why did gold drop at the open and then bounce?
When U.S. stocks opened at 9:30 AM ET, gold fell $19 in about 25 minutes to $3,988.83 on about twice normal volume, while stock futures rose and the dollar index barely moved. Buyers took it back to $4,005 within 15 minutes, as they did on Thursday night, Friday morning and Sunday night, each time between $3,975 and $3,990. No news item lined up with the drop.
Did the Iran talks in Tehran affect gold?
Very little. Headlines from Monday’s meeting between Iran and the Mecca pact countries (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey) each moved gold $2 or less in New York trading. The visit was known since the weekend, and oil had already fallen at Sunday’s reopen.
What are the odds the Fed hikes on Wednesday?
As of 5:02 PM ET, fed funds futures imply about a 9% chance of a quarter-point hike on Oct 28 and 91% for no change. For the Dec 9 meeting they imply about a 79% chance of a hike, up from 74% at Friday’s close. The decision is at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday.
Is buying gold near $4,000 a good idea before the Fed?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Gold has held between $3,975 and $3,990 four times since Thursday, but a Fed decision can move it in either direction. Some buyers wait for the decision; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time it, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:15 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure analysis of OANDA spot prices (XAU/USD, XAG/USD); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey); U.S. Treasury (auction results, daily yield curves and real yield curves); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting via Newsquawk (talks and Hormuz remarks); Al Jazeera (Saudi foreign ministry statement, U.S. official, Mecca pact meeting); Fox News via CBS News (Trump interview); CNBC (oil settlements); Federal Reserve; index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); OANDA, TVC (incl. Brent), COMEX and BATS data via TradingView; Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX gold and silver futures and 3-month T-bill data via Yahoo Finance).
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
