Gold Price Today: Gold Rises 1.2% to $4,157 as the Dollar and Yields Slip
Gold took back Wednesday’s inflation-day loss overnight as the dollar and long-term Treasury yields fell, then held its gains through a hot producer price report. Here’s what moved metals before the New York open, the levels now in play, and what comes next, including Fed Chair Warsh tonight.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
This pre-market note uses Ausecure prices as of 8:41 AM ET on Oct 15, 2026. For how gold and silver finished Wednesday, read our market close note from last night.
The short version
- Gold price today: $4,156.90 an ounce on our ask at 8:41 AM ET, up $47.40 (1.2%) from Wednesday’s closing ask of $4,109.50. Spot reached $4,161.12 overnight.
- Silver price today: $56.90 on our ask, up $1.13 (2.0%). The gold/silver ratio eased to 73.1 from 73.8 at Wednesday’s close.
- Why: the dollar index fell 0.47% and the 10-year Treasury yield fell about 0.13 percentage point to a three-week low, as Treasuries drew safe-haven demand and Fed officials said there is time before another hike.
- The 8:30 AM data: producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.6% forecast, and retail sales rose 0.8% against 0.3%. Gold dipped to $4,129.82 on the release and was back near $4,153 spot within 10 minutes. Yields kept falling.
- What’s next: gold is back above $4,143, the level it broke on Wednesday. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tonight at 11:30 PM ET, his last scheduled remarks before the Fed’s pre-meeting quiet period.
Why is gold up today?
Gold recovered all of Wednesday’s inflation-day drop overnight. Spot was $4,104.80 at Wednesday’s close and climbed in two steps in the Asian session, the first in the hour after 7:45 PM ET and the second around 10:45 PM ET, to an overnight high of $4,161.12. Both steps came as the dollar index slid, to an overnight low of 101.88.
Three things pushed the dollar and yields lower. FXStreet cited a Bloomberg report that China has been buying U.S. Treasuries through custodians outside the U.S. CNBC described investors moving into government bonds as technology and AI stocks sold off, which took the 10-year yield to its lowest level in three weeks. And Fed officials sounded patient: CNBC reported San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly saying more increases would probably be needed but there was no need to act in October, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman saying there was time to wait.
Then came a heavy set of U.S. data at 8:30 AM ET (7:30 AM CT). Producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.6% forecast, and core producer prices rose 0.7% against 0.3%. Retail sales rose 0.8% against 0.3%, and 0.9% excluding autos against 0.6%. The Philadelphia Fed factory index came in at 20.9, below the 28.2 forecast, and weekly jobless claims matched expectations at 199,000.
Gold’s first reaction was down: spot fell from $4,153.39 to $4,129.82 within minutes. But Treasury yields did not rise on the hot numbers. The 10-year slipped from about 5.10% to 5.06% and the 2-year from 4.79% to 4.75%, and gold was back at $4,153.50 spot by 8:40 AM ET.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
How much was the dollar?
Most or all of it. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.47% at 102.08 since Wednesday afternoon. Based on how gold traded against the dollar on Wednesday, that move alone would have lifted gold by about 0.9% to 1.2%. Spot gold is up 1.2%, so there was little buying in gold beyond the dollar move. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.
The same move ran the other way on Wednesday, when the dollar rose after the consumer price report and gold fell. This morning it reversed.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, rebased to 100
Bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves. Every order is priced off the live market and confirmed when you place it.
Silver price today: leading the rebound
Silver is at $56.90 on our ask, up $1.13 from Wednesday’s $55.77. On Wednesday silver fell much harder than gold, to $55.40 spot, its lowest level in our data back to Sep 23. This morning it has gained about 2.0% to gold’s 1.2%.
The gold/silver ratio (how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys) is 73.1 on our prices, down from 73.8 at Wednesday’s close. A falling ratio means silver is doing better than gold. It is still near the top of its range of the past three weeks.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels we’re watching
| Level | Gold | Silver | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight high | $4,161.12 | — | Where the overnight rebound stopped |
| Retaken level | $4,143 | $56.50 | Bottom of last week’s gold range, lost on Wednesday and regained overnight. Silver back above $56.50 |
| Data-release low | $4,129.82 | — | Gold’s dip on the 8:30 AM ET producer price and retail sales reports |
| Round level | $4,120 | $56.00 | Gold’s dip held above it this morning |
| Wednesday’s low | $4,073.55 | $55.40 | The low after the consumer price report; both are the lowest levels in our recent data |
From Wednesday’s low of $4,073.55 to the overnight high, gold has covered about $88 in less than a day. Wednesday’s full range was $96.90, against a typical day of about $66 over the past 19 sessions.
What the Fed is expected to do
According to CME FedWatch, futures markets priced a 29.3% chance that the Fed raises rates at its October 27–28 meeting and a 70.7% chance that it holds at 3.75%–4.00%, with no chance of a cut, as of 8:20 AM ET, just before the data. At Wednesday’s close the hike odds were 33.2%. Odds after the producer price report had not been posted when this note was written.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.06% and the 2-year is 4.75%. The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, is about 2.73%, down about 0.11 percentage point today. Lower real rates reduce the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, which is one reason gold has held up this morning.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok at 11:30 PM ET tonight (10:30 PM CT), according to the Fed’s calendar. FXStreet notes it is his last public appearance before the Fed’s quiet period ahead of the meeting.
Economic calendar: what’s next for gold
Weekly Market Notes
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Every weekend: how gold and silver closed each day, what moved them, and the levels for the week ahead.
See the latest weekly emailThis weekAusecure closing ask
| Day | Gold | Change | Silver | Silver change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonOct 12 | $4,175.80 | −0.5% | $60.44 | −0.8% |
| TueOct 13 | $4,165.20 | −0.3% | $59.31 | −1.9% |
| WedOct 14 | $4,109.50 | −1.3% | $55.77 | −6.0% |
| ThuOct 15 | $4,174.90 | +1.6% | $57.56 | +3.2% |
| WeekendWeekly email | The week’s wrap-up → | |||
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What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold is about 1.2% higher on our ask than at Wednesday’s close and silver about 2.0% higher, after both fell on Wednesday. Prices have swung about $88 in a day, so a few practical points:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so on a fast day the price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products on our site show their “% over spot” under the price, so you can compare a coin with a bar on equal terms.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
What is the gold price today?
Before the New York open, Ausecure’s gold ask was $4,156.90 an ounce at 8:41 AM ET on Oct 15, 2026, up $47.40 (1.2%) from Wednesday’s closing ask of $4,109.50. Spot reached $4,161.12 overnight. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.
Why did gold rise after falling on Wednesday’s inflation report?
The dollar index fell 0.47% and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a three-week low overnight, as Treasuries drew safe-haven demand during a tech-stock selloff and Fed officials said there was time before another rate hike. Based on Wednesday’s trading, the dollar’s drop alone accounts for most or all of gold’s 1.2% gain.
How did gold react to the producer price and retail sales reports?
Producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.6% forecast, and retail sales rose 0.8% against 0.3%. Spot gold dipped from $4,153.39 to $4,129.82 within minutes, then recovered to about $4,153 by 8:40 AM ET because Treasury yields kept falling instead of rising.
What could move gold next?
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks tonight at 11:30 PM ET (10:30 PM CT), his last scheduled remarks before the Fed’s quiet period. The Fed meets Oct 27–28. U.S. import prices and industrial production follow Friday morning.
Is a rebound like this a good time to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows or highs. Gold has swung about $88 in a day. Some buyers wait for pullbacks; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 8:41 AM ET on Oct 15, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure live prices (ask; Wednesday closing ask); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index and U.S. Census Bureau retail sales (via the Forex Factory economic calendar); CME FedWatch; Federal Reserve Board calendar; FXStreet; CNBC; Refinitiv spot and U.S. Treasury yield quotes (via CNBC); OANDA, TVC and COMEX data via TradingView.
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
