Gold Closes Down 1.3% at $4,109.50 as Silver Falls 6% After Hot CPI
A hotter-than-expected inflation report knocked gold below $4,100 this morning. Gold found buyers above $4,071 and finished off its lows. Silver did not, and fell to its lowest level in three months. Here’s how metals closed, the levels in play, and what’s next before Thursday’s producer prices and retail sales.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $4,109.50 an ounce (Ausecure’s ask at the 5:00 PM ET close), down $55.70 (1.3%) from Tuesday’s close of $4,165.20 and up $17.00 from our 9:06 AM ET price of $4,092.50. Spot’s range since Tuesday evening was $4,073.55 to $4,170.49.
- Silver price today: $55.77, down $3.54 (6.0%) and $1.30 lower than this morning. The gold/silver ratio rose to about 73.8, the highest in our three-week data window.
- After the open: gold fell to $4,073.55 at 12:00 PM ET, then climbed back to about $4,105. No 15-minute bar traded below $4,071, and only two closed below $4,080.
- The Fed: CME FedWatch shows a 32.7% chance of a hike on Oct 28 as of 4:56 PM ET, down from 49.3% at 8:50 AM ET but up from 22.1% at Tuesday’s close.
Why did gold recover after the open?
The September consumer price index set the day’s direction at 8:30 AM ET (7:30 AM CT), as we covered in our pre-market note. Core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, and the annual headline rate rose to 3.7% against 3.6%. Gold fell from $4,153 to $4,093 in the 15 minutes after the release, touching $4,085.29 on heavy volume.
Selling continued into midday. Gold slid to $4,073.55 at 12:00 PM ET, just above the $4,066–$4,071 area that marked the Oct 7 low. Buyers held that area: no 15-minute bar traded below $4,071, and volume faded as the low was set. From there gold rose steadily, reaching $4,106.71 at 3:15 PM ET and finishing near $4,105 on spot.
The recovery tracked Treasury yields. The 2-year yield, the one most tied to Fed policy, peaked at 4.95% in the hour after CPI and eased to 4.81% by the close. The 10-year went from 5.31% to 5.19%.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
How did the CPI report change Fed expectations?
Rate-futures traders added to hike bets in the morning and took some of them back in the afternoon. CME FedWatch put the chance of a rate hike at the Oct 28 meeting at 21.6% just before the report, 49.3% at 8:50 AM ET and 32.7% at 4:56 PM ET (3:56 PM CT), with a 67.3% chance of no change. At Tuesday’s close the hike figure was 22.1%.
So the market still prices a higher chance of a hike than it did before the report, but less than it did in the first hour. Higher odds of a hike tend to weigh on gold, which pays no interest. The partial pullback helped gold recover; it did not help silver.
How much of today’s move was the dollar?
Most of it, but not all. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.35% on the day to 102.55. Based on how gold has traded against the dollar today, that would point to a gold drop of about 0.8%. Gold fell 1.35% on spot, so about half a percentage point was selling in gold itself, nearly all of it in the 15 minutes after CPI.
After the report, the dollar did the steering. The dollar index peaked at 102.92 at 11:00 AM ET and eased to 102.55, and gold rose 0.3% over the same stretch, in line with the dollar’s move. Gold measured against a basket of major currencies (gold × DXY) finished the day 1.0% lower.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, rebased to 100
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The Beige Book, Fed speakers and the rest of the day’s news
- Oil: Brent crude stayed between $105.21 and $107.15 since Tuesday evening and was $106.09 at 5:00 PM ET, little changed from this morning. Oil was not today’s driver; the inflation report was.
- The Fed’s Beige Book: the Fed’s survey of regional business contacts, released at 2:00 PM ET, said higher oil prices showed up in all 12 Districts’ reports, with diesel costs and fuel surcharges spreading through supply chains. Prices rose at a moderate pace in eight Districts and a robust pace in three, and the pace picked up in four. Growth was uneven and employment changed little. Gold edged higher after the release.
- Fed speakers: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the CPI report was hotter than he would have hoped and that he would not project the outcome of the October meeting; Thursday’s producer prices will help shape his view, as reported by FXStreet. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the data “discouraging” and said more months like it would be unacceptable, in a Yahoo Finance interview. Gold kept rising through both.
- Why silver fell harder: FXStreet described silver breaking below $56 to its lowest level since July, approaching its yearly low of $54.77, and argued that higher rate-hike odds weigh more on silver because about half of its demand is industrial.
- Mining shares: gold miners fell 3.0% against gold (GDX/GLD) to their weakest level in our three-week data. Junior silver miners were roughly flat against silver (SILJ/SLV, +0.3%).
Silver price today: down 6.0%, a three-month low
Silver ended at $55.77 on our ask, down $3.54. On spot it fell from $59.37 late Tuesday to $57.76 after the CPI report, then kept falling while gold recovered, to a low of $55.40 at 3:00 PM ET. That is the lowest point in our data, which starts Sep 23. It made no 15-minute close below $55.50.
Since 8:45 AM ET silver fell 3.7% on spot while gold rose 0.3%. The gold/silver ratio rose from 71.2 to 73.8, which means an ounce of gold now buys about 74 ounces of silver, up from about 70 on Tuesday.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | What happened today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broken support | $4,143 | — | Lost before and during the CPI report; not retested |
| Overnight high | $4,170.49 | $59.37 | Set late Tuesday evening ET |
| CPI breakdown zone | $4,104–$4,107 | $56.00 | Gold closed back at the top of it; silver made 22 closes below $56 |
| Day’s low | $4,073.55 | $55.40 | Gold at 12:00 PM ET, silver at 3:00 PM ET |
| Support | $4,066–$4,071 | $54.77 | Gold held above it; silver’s yearly low per FXStreet, not reached |
Gold covered about $97 from high to low since Tuesday evening. Over the past few weeks the typical day covered about $66, and 80% of days stayed inside $82, so this was one of the wider days in our data.
What’s next: Thursday and Friday
Weekly Market Notes
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Every weekend: how gold and silver closed each day, what moved them, and the levels for the week ahead.
See the latest weekly emailThis weekAusecure closing ask
| Day | Gold | Change | Silver | Silver change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonOct 12 | $4,175.80 | −0.5% | $60.44 | −0.8% |
| TueOct 13 | $4,165.20 | −0.3% | $59.31 | −1.9% |
| WedOct 14 | $4,109.50 | −1.3% | $55.77 | −6.0% |
| WeekendWeekly email | The week’s wrap-up → | |||
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What today means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold dropped on the inflation report and then held a support area, while silver fell 6% and closed near its low. Thursday morning’s data could move both again. For buyers of coins and bars, the practical questions are what you pay over spot and when your price is set:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so an order placed tonight, or before or after Thursday’s 8:30 AM ET reports, uses that moment’s price.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products show their “% over spot” under the price, so a coin and a bar can be compared on equal terms. With the gold/silver ratio near 74, each ounce of gold costs about 74 ounces of silver today, about 4 more than on Tuesday.
- Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
- Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
- Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Gold closed Oct 14, 2026 at $4,109.50 an ounce on Ausecure’s ask at 5:00 PM ET, down $55.70 (1.3%) from Tuesday’s $4,165.20. Spot ranged from $4,073.55 to $4,170.49 since Tuesday evening, and gold finished about $31 above its low.
Why did silver fall so much more than gold today?
Both fell on the hot CPI report, but only gold recovered. After 8:45 AM ET silver fell another 3.7% on spot while gold rose 0.3%, and the gold/silver ratio rose to about 73.8. FXStreet linked silver’s weakness to higher rate-hike odds weighing on industrial demand. Gold miners were weak too, falling 3.0% against gold.
Did gold hold $4,071 after the CPI report?
Yes. Gold’s low was $4,073.55 at 12:00 PM ET. No 15-minute bar traded below $4,071, and only two closed below $4,080. Gold then rose to about $4,105 on spot by the close.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike on Oct 28 after today’s CPI?
CME FedWatch showed a 32.7% chance of a hike and a 67.3% chance of no change as of 4:56 PM ET. The hike figure was 21.6% just before the report, 49.3% at 8:50 AM ET and 22.1% at Tuesday’s close.
Is a 6% drop in silver a good time to buy?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows, especially with producer prices and retail sales due Thursday morning. Some buyers add on down days; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:07 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure live prices (closing ask); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI); Federal Reserve Beige Book; CME FedWatch; FXStreet (silver, Barkin); Yahoo Finance (Goolsbee interview, as reported by FXStreet); Forex Factory economic calendar; OANDA, TVC (incl. Brent) and BATS data via TradingView.
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
