Gold Closes Down 0.1% at $4,169.60 as Oil Jumps on Hormuz Tanker Attacks
Gold rose to $4,199 after the U.S. open, then gave the gain back as Brent crude reached $110 on reports of new Iranian attacks on tankers. Silver fell 0.8%. Here’s how metals closed, the levels in play, and what to watch over the weekend as the Fed goes quiet before its Oct 28 meeting.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $4,169.60 an ounce (Ausecure’s ask at the 5:00 PM ET close), down $5.30 (0.1%) from Thursday’s close of $4,174.90 and down $9.50 from our 8:45 AM ET price of $4,179.10. Spot’s range since Thursday evening was $4,147.16 to $4,199.08.
- Silver price today: $57.13, down $0.43 (0.7%) and $0.81 lower than this morning. The gold/silver ratio rose to about 73.1 from 72.6 on Thursday.
- The turn: gold rose about $41 in the first 45 minutes after the U.S. open to $4,199.08 at 10:15 AM ET, then fell back to $4,157 by 1:15 PM ET as Brent crude climbed from about $106 to $109.
- The Fed: fed funds futures imply about a 17% chance of a quarter-point hike on Oct 28 as of 4:45 PM ET, down from 28% at Thursday’s close, and price a hike by the Dec 9 meeting as likely (about 86%). The Fed’s quiet period before the meeting starts Saturday.
Why did gold give back its morning gain?
Gold started the U.S. day well. As we noted in our pre-market note, futures had cut the odds of an October rate hike after Fed Chair Warsh gave no signal on Thursday night. At 9:15 AM ET (8:15 AM CT) the Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.7% in September, above the 0.4% forecast, and factories ran at 76.9% of capacity. Gold dipped to $4,154.82 in the minutes after the report, then turned higher. Between 9:30 and 10:15 AM ET the 2-year Treasury yield, the one most tied to Fed policy, fell from 4.77% to 4.72%, the dollar index slipped to 101.60, and gold rose from $4,157 to $4,199.08 on the day’s heaviest volume.
Oil then took over. From about 11:15 AM ET, Brent crude rose from $105.79 to $109.31 by 1:15 PM ET and touched $110.00 later in the afternoon, up 3.9% on the day. News reports said Iran had stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and CNBC reported Brent at its highest level since May. Over the same two hours the 2-year yield climbed back to 4.77% and gold fell to $4,157.25. Higher oil feeds inflation worries, which raises the odds of Fed hikes, and in recent weeks that has weighed on gold.
Gold spent the rest of the day between $4,156 and $4,173. Stocks fell hard in the afternoon and the 2-year yield eased back to 4.72%, but gold did not get a lift from either.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
How much of today’s move was the dollar?
None of the loss. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.20% on the day to 101.78. Based on how gold has traded against the dollar since Thursday’s close, that would point to a gold gain of about 0.4%. Gold instead slipped 0.1% on spot, so it was about half a percentage point weaker than the dollar alone would suggest.
That is the reverse of Thursday, when gold rose about one percentage point more than the dollar explained. Gold measured against a basket of major currencies (gold × DXY) finished the day down 0.3%.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, rebased to 100
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Oil, stocks, the Fed and the rest of the day’s news
- Oil: Brent crude (TVC:UKOIL) closed at $109.81, up $4.10 (3.9%) from Thursday, after a high of $110.00. U.S. crude rose about 1.6%. News coverage cited Kpler data putting oil flows through Hormuz at about 68% of normal.
- Stocks: the Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.2% and chip stocks fell 3.8% in an AI-stock sell-off; the S&P 500 lost 1.1%. The VIX volatility index rose 21% to 19.99. Gold held its range while stocks fell, so this was not a flight into gold.
- Rate odds: fed funds futures imply about a 17% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Oct 28 meeting and an 83% chance of no change, as of 4:45 PM ET. For the Dec 9 meeting they put the chance of at least one quarter-point increase by then at about 86%, down from about 89% on Thursday.
- The Fed: no Fed official made policy remarks during the U.S. session, and the Board published no policy statement. Its quiet period before the Oct 27–28 meeting begins Saturday, so Chair Warsh’s comments on Thursday night were the last before the decision.
- Real yields: the 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, fell to 2.74% from 2.78% on Thursday, according to Treasury data. That small decline did not stop gold from slipping.
- Fund positioning: in the week to Tuesday, Oct 13, money managers cut their net long position in COMEX silver futures by about a quarter, to 5,619 contracts from 7,528, according to the CFTC. Their net long in gold fell 3.5% to 107,089 contracts.
- Mining shares: gold miners rose 1.1% against gold (GDX/GLD) and junior silver miners rose 0.8% against silver (SILJ/SLV), so miners held up better than the metals.
Silver price today: down 0.7%
Silver ended at $57.13 on our ask, down $0.43. On spot it fell from $57.42 at Thursday’s close to $56.97, after a high of $57.98 at 8:30 AM ET and a low of $56.89 at 3:00 PM ET. It closed close to the day’s low.
Silver lost more than gold, which reversed part of Thursday’s move. The gold/silver ratio rose from 72.6 to 73.1, which means an ounce of gold buys about 73 ounces of silver. The ratio is near the top of its range over the past three weeks.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | What happened today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent highs | $4,200–$4,208 | $58.00 | Gold stopped just below this zone; not reached on a 15-minute close |
| Day’s high | $4,199.08 | $57.98 | Gold at 10:15 AM ET; silver at 8:30 AM ET |
| Thursday’s high | $4,177.50 | — | Every gold 15-minute close after 11:15 AM ET was below it |
| U.S. session low | $4,155–$4,157 | $56.89 | Gold tested it three times; lowest 15-minute close $4,158.48 |
| Thursday night low | $4,147.16 | — | Set at 9:30 PM ET Thursday; not retested |
Gold covered about $52 from high to low since Thursday evening. Over the past few weeks the typical day covered about $61, and 80% of days stayed inside $80.
What’s next: the weekend and next week
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What today means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold ended the week’s last session about where it started, after a $52 range, and silver slipped. With oil headlines able to move prices while U.S. markets are closed, weekend news can show up in Sunday evening’s prices. For buyers of coins and bars, the practical questions are what you pay over spot and when your price is set:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so an order placed over the weekend or after Sunday’s reopen uses that moment’s price.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products show their “% over spot” under the price, so a coin and a bar can be compared on equal terms. With the ratio near 73, an ounce of gold costs about half an ounce of silver more than it did on Thursday.
- Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Gold closed Oct 16, 2026 at $4,169.60 an ounce on Ausecure’s ask at 5:00 PM ET, down $5.30 (0.1%) from Thursday’s $4,174.90. Spot ranged from $4,147.16 to $4,199.08 since Thursday evening, with the high at 10:15 AM ET.
Why did gold fall after reaching $4,199?
Brent crude rose about 3.9% to near $110 after reports of new Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The 2-year Treasury yield rose from 4.72% to 4.77% while oil climbed, and gold fell about $42 from its high. Higher oil adds to inflation worries and to the odds of Fed rate hikes.
Did the stock sell-off help gold today?
No. The Nasdaq fell 2.2% and the VIX rose to 19.99, but gold stayed between $4,156 and $4,173 through the afternoon. Gold miners did better than the metal, rising 1.1% against gold.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike on Oct 28 now?
Fed funds futures imply about a 17% chance of a quarter-point hike on Oct 28 as of 4:45 PM ET, down from 28% at Thursday’s close. They put the chance of at least one hike by the Dec 9 meeting at about 86%. The Fed’s quiet period before the meeting begins Saturday.
Is a flat Friday after a weekly high a good time to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term highs or lows, especially with oil headlines able to move prices over the weekend. Some buyers wait for pullbacks; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:10 PM ET on Oct 16, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure live prices (closing ask); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); Federal Reserve (industrial production and capacity utilization, G.17); U.S. Treasury (daily real yield curve); U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commitments of Traders, Oct 13, 2026); CNBC; Kpler (via news reports); index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Forex Factory economic calendar; OANDA, TVC (incl. Brent) and BATS data via TradingView.
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
