Gold Price Today: Gold Edges Up to $4,179 as Warsh Gives No Rate Signal
Gold held Thursday’s rally overnight and added a little as the dollar slipped after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the Fed’s next move. Futures now see an October rate hike as much less likely. Here’s what moved metals before the New York open, the levels now in play, and what comes next as the Fed goes quiet.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
This pre-market note uses Ausecure prices as of 8:45 AM ET on Oct 16, 2026. For how gold and silver finished Thursday, read our market close note from last night.
The short version
- Gold price today: $4,179.10 an ounce on our ask at 8:45 AM ET, up $4.20 (0.1%) from Thursday’s closing ask of $4,174.90. Spot reached $4,192.29 overnight.
- Silver price today: $57.94 on our ask, up $0.38 (0.7%). The gold/silver ratio eased to 72.2 from 72.6 at Thursday’s close.
- Warsh: speaking in Bangkok at 11:30 PM ET, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he does not prejudge meetings. Fed funds futures cut the odds of an Oct 28 rate hike to about 16% from about 28% at Thursday’s close.
- Why only a small gain: the dollar index fell 0.27%, but gold rose less than the dollar’s drop would suggest, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.09%.
- What’s next: the Fed’s quiet period starts Saturday, so there are no more Fed speeches before the Oct 27–28 meeting. Gold is holding above $4,161, the level it broke out from on Thursday.
Why is gold up today?
Gold is holding on to Thursday’s rally. Spot closed Thursday’s session at $4,170.70 after a 1.6% gain, slipped to an overnight low of $4,147.16 at 9:30 PM ET as the dollar firmed, and then turned higher.
The turn came with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. In a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok at 11:30 PM ET (10:30 PM CT), his last scheduled remarks before the Fed’s pre-meeting quiet period, Warsh gave no hint about the October decision. “I don’t prejudge meetings,” he said, according to the Associated Press, adding that the Fed “removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago” with its September hike. Spot gold rose $17 in the 15 minutes from 11:45 PM ET, to $4,183.35, on about three times the usual volume.
Markets read the lack of a signal as a likely pause in October. Gold pushed on to an overnight high of $4,192.29 at 5:15 AM ET as the dollar index fell to 101.58, then eased back to about $4,181 spot by 8:30 AM ET. Stocks were calm: S&P 500 futures were up 0.16% at 8:23 AM ET and the VIX volatility index was about 16, so there was no rush into safe havens.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
How much was the dollar?
All of it, and then some. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.27% at 101.71 since Thursday afternoon. Based on how gold traded against the dollar overnight, that move alone would have lifted gold by about 0.5%. Spot gold is up 0.25%, so gold lagged the dollar this morning. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.
That is the reverse of Thursday afternoon, when gold rose about 1% more than the dollar’s move explained. Treasury yields also worked against gold overnight: the 10-year rose about 0.03 percentage point to 5.09%, while the 2-year was flat at 4.75%.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, rebased to 100
Bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves. Every order is priced off the live market and confirmed when you place it.
Silver price today: still ahead of gold
Silver is at $57.94 on our ask, up $0.38 from Thursday’s $57.56, after a 3.2% gain on Thursday. Spot silver made its overnight high of $57.98 in the 8:30 AM ET bar, while gold stayed about $11 below its own overnight high.
The gold/silver ratio (how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys) is 72.2, down from 72.6 at Thursday’s close and 73.8 on Wednesday. A falling ratio means silver is doing better than gold. It is still in the upper part of its range of the past three weeks.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels we’re watching
| Level | Gold | Silver | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight high | $4,192.29 | $57.98 | Gold traded above $4,190 in only two 15-minute bars and closed above it once. Silver is testing its high now |
| Thursday’s high | $4,177.46 | $57.53 | Gold has traded on both sides of it all night |
| Breakout level | $4,161 | — | Where Thursday’s rally broke out. Gold dipped below it Thursday evening and took it back |
| Overnight low | $4,147.16 | $57.07 | The low before Warsh spoke |
| Thursday’s floor | $4,143 | $56.32 | Gold has not closed a 15-minute bar below it since Thursday morning |
Gold’s overnight range was $45, against a typical day of about $61 over the past 21 sessions, so the morning has been quieter than Thursday.
What the Fed is expected to do
Fed funds futures imply about 16% odds (roughly 1 in 6) that the Fed raises rates by a quarter point at its October 27–28 meeting, and about 85% that it holds at 3.75%–4.00%, as of 8:33 AM ET. At Thursday’s close the hike odds were about 28%. Futures still price a hike by the December 9 meeting as likely, about 89%.
So the market has moved the next hike from October toward December, and Warsh did nothing to push back. The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, was 2.78% at Thursday’s close, down 0.06 percentage point on the day, according to the U.S. Treasury. Lower real rates reduce the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
Starting Saturday the Fed is in its quiet period, so officials will not comment on policy until the decision on Wednesday, Oct 28. That leaves data and the dollar to drive gold for the next week and a half.
Economic calendar: what’s next for gold
Weekly Market Notes
The week in one email
Every weekend: how gold and silver closed each day, what moved them, and the levels for the week ahead.
See the latest weekly emailYou’re subscribed.Our emails will go to .
Buying metal too? A free account lets you order at live prices and track every shipment.
What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold is about where it closed Thursday on our ask, after a $65 gain that day, and silver is a little higher again. A few practical points:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so the price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products on our site show their “% over spot” under the price, so you can compare a coin with a bar on equal terms.
- Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
- Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
- Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
Auto-Buy places a recurring order for American Eagles or a 10 oz silver bar, weekly to every two months, priced at the live market on each order date. Every Auto-Buy order ships free and insured, you get a reminder before each one, and you can skip, pause or cancel anytime.
Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
Coins and bars from the U.S. Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, PAMP, Valcambi and more. Every order is 100% insured, tracked and shipped discreetly.
Open a free account to buy at live prices. A+ BBB rated, trusted since 2009, and every order 100% insured.
Frequently asked questions
What is the gold price today?
Before the New York open, Ausecure’s gold ask was $4,179.10 an ounce at 8:45 AM ET on Oct 16, 2026, up $4.20 (0.1%) from Thursday’s closing ask of $4,174.90. Spot reached $4,192.29 overnight. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.
What did Fed Chair Warsh say, and how did gold react?
Speaking in Bangkok at 11:30 PM ET on Thursday, Warsh said he does not prejudge meetings and would not say what the Fed might do at its remaining meetings this year, according to the Associated Press. Spot gold rose $17 in the next 15 minutes to $4,183.35, and fed funds futures cut the odds of an Oct 28 hike to about 16% from about 28%.
Why is gold only slightly higher when the dollar fell?
The dollar index fell 0.27% overnight, which on its own would have lifted gold about 0.5% based on how the two traded overnight. Spot gold rose 0.25%. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose to 5.09%, and gold had already gained 1.6% on Thursday.
What could move gold next?
The Fed’s quiet period starts Saturday, so there are no more Fed speeches before the Oct 27–28 meeting. Today brings U.S. industrial production at 9:15 AM ET and the CFTC positioning report at 3:30 PM ET. On the chart, the overnight high of $4,192.29 and Thursday’s breakout level of $4,161 are the levels in play.
Is a quiet morning after a big rally a good time to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows or highs. Gold rose $65 on our ask on Thursday and has held it so far. Some buyers wait for pullbacks; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 8:45 AM ET on Oct 16, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure live prices (ask; Thursday closing ask); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); Federal Reserve Board calendar; Associated Press (Warsh remarks); U.S. Treasury daily real yield curve; index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Forex Factory economic calendar; OANDA and TVC data via TradingView.
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
