Gold Closes Down 2.6% at $4,032.52 as Waller and Hot CPI Lift Rate Bets

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 10, 2026. For the overnight hours, the CPI release and the yen, see the pre-market note.

Why is gold down today?

Gold fell on higher U.S. interest-rate expectations. Our pre-market note had gold at $4,056.75 at 8:45 AM ET, after the CPI report. It flagged $4,100 above and Friday’s New York low of $4,029.83 below. Gold closed below $4,029.83 at 11:30 AM ET, then got back above it by 1:45 PM ET.

1. Asia, no trigger. Gold fell $27.32 from Monday’s close to $4,113.37 by 4:00 AM ET. The 2-year yield and the dollar held flat, and we found no headline.
2. Waller. Governor Waller spoke in London at 4:00 AM ET. He backed a quarter-point December hike and said a half point “should be considered” if core CPI came in “around 0.3 percent or even higher.” Gold fell $17.61 in the first 15 minutes on tick volume 3.7 times the median, and $36.18 by 5:30 AM ET. The 2-year rose from 4.55% to 4.61% in the first 15 minutes.
3. CPI. Gold drifted $5.16 lower before 8:30 AM ET. October core CPI then came in at 0.3%, Waller’s number. Gold fell to $4,039.72 in the first 15 minutes and closed that bar at $4,056.75, down $15.29. The 2-year rose to 4.68%.
4. New York morning. Gold fell $43.11 from 8:45 AM ET to its low of $4,013.64 in the 15 minutes to noon. The 2-year rose to 4.76%, the 10-year closed a 15-minute bar at 5.00% at 11:30 AM ET, its first close at that level since Nov 3, and the dollar index reached 102.41. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at 10:50 AM ET that the Fed needs “at least two more” quarter-point hikes. In the 15 minutes to 11:30 AM ET, gold fell $13.55 and Brent rose $1.18, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran’s terms “absurd,” TASS reported at 11:17 AM ET.
5. The afternoon. The 10-year auction at 1:00 PM ET sold at 5.02%. Gold rose $10.43 in the 15 minutes to 1:45 PM ET as the 2-year eased to 4.74%. It traded between $4,024 and $4,037 into the close.

From 4:00 AM ET to the noon low, gold fell $99.74 while the 2-year rose about 0.21 point. That is the Waller, CPI and New York legs together. Our read is that traders sold gold as the market moved from one December hike to a faster path of hikes. We can see the timing and the volume, not who sold.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Fed hike odds by meeting: 25, 50, 75 and 100 basis points

Fed funds futures moved hikes forward today. December went from likely to certain, and the odds of two or more hikes by January and March jumped. The odds of a half point in December itself rose after CPI and then fell back.

All figures are from fed funds futures, our calculation, as of 5:00 PM ET. Futures now price about 0.60 point of hikes by March 17, up from 0.39 point on Monday. The January meeting on its own went from 25% to 62% odds of a hike, and March from 47% to 66%. The half point for December faded during the day as Logan talked about two more hikes over time, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said further tightening “has to be carefully weighed against its costs.” Our read is that the market moved hikes into January and March rather than into one bigger December step.

Today’s economic data and what it means

October consumer prices were the day’s main release. The Treasury also sold 10-year notes.

Consumer prices (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The index rose 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September, against a 0.3% forecast. Core prices rose 0.3%, the same as September, against 0.2%. There is no 12-month rate this month, because the shutdown left no October 2025 index. For the Fed, core at 0.3% is the level Waller named for a half-point hike. Bowman said the report suggests the Fed’s preferred core measure rose to 3.3% over 12 months in October. Gold fell $15.29 in the 15 minutes after the release, and the 2-year rose 0.06 point.

10-year auction (Treasury)

The Treasury sold $42 billion of 10-year notes at 5.020%, with a 5.000% coupon. Bid-to-cover was 2.46. Indirect bidders took 61.2%, direct bidders 29.0% and dealers 9.8%. The 10-year yield was near 5.01% going in. Gold rose $14.39 from 1:00 to 1:45 PM ET as yields eased.

What it adds up to: the CPI beat made Waller’s half point a live option and pulled more hikes into January and March. Gold fell with each step up in short-term yields. The next big releases are jobless claims on Thursday and October producer prices on Friday, both at 8:30 AM ET.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 102.24, up 0.57% from Monday. Its high of 102.41 came near noon ET, with gold’s low. Measured against the dollar index, gold fell 2.05%, so the dollar accounts for about half a point of the 2.61% drop. Over the past two weeks gold is down 0.7% and the dollar down 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.99% and the 30-year at 5.36%, up 0.11 and 0.08 point from Monday. The 2-year closed at 4.74%, up 0.18 point. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 2-year up 0.17 point. At midday Reuters said it was on track for its biggest one-day rise since April 2025. The 10-year real yield rose 0.12 point to 2.78%, and the 10-year breakeven fell 0.02 point to 2.20%, its lowest in a month. The whole rise in long yields came through real yields. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

What the Fed said today

• Logan: the Dallas Fed president, a voter this year, said the Fed “needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases.” She added: “It may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the FOMC has moved so far this fall.” She said October CPI “was higher than expected” and that skipping one meeting “does not change the monetary policy destination.”
• Bowman: she said “there is still work to do,” with inflation pressures persisting and the job market firming. She also said the benefit of more tightening “has to be carefully weighed against its costs for interest-rate-sensitive sectors,” and gave no size for December. Gold held between $4,026 and $4,037 after her 3:30 PM ET speech.
• Waller: his full line was “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.” The pre-market note covers the rest of the speech.
• Schmid: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said “inflation is top of mind” and called policy “fairly accommodative,” FXStreet reported. He doesn’t vote this year.
• Bowman and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, a voter this year, speak again at 6:30 PM ET, after this note.

Oil, Iran and world news

Brent crude dipped below $90 overnight for the first time since August, CNBC reported. In our data its low was $89.16, in the 15 minutes after CPI. It then rose $2.92 to $92.08 by the close, in our data, as U.S. and Iranian officials both said talks were stuck. Gold fell while oil rose late in the morning.

• Rubio: after the G7 foreign ministers met in Paris, Rubio said the U.S. doesn’t see Iran’s terms for ending the war as realistic and called its demands “absurd,” TASS reported.
• Iran: Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said “we are not currently conducting any negotiations with the Americans.” He called the first U.S. reply to Iran’s conditions “insufficient and deceptive,” Anadolu reported, citing Tasnim. We couldn’t pin down the time of his remarks.
• Hormuz: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers caught fire on the “unauthorized route” at about 6:08 AM ET, and Tasnim later reported a third hit a mine. The claims haven’t been confirmed independently, and no ships were named. Gold rose $1.02 in that 15-minute bar.
• The World Gold Council had no new research today. Its latest ETF report (Nov 5) said global gold ETFs added “US$2.7bn in October” and that holdings rose “19t to 4,275t.” The Silver Institute had no new release.

Stocks fell with bonds

The S&P 500 closed down 0.38% at 7,520.93, the Nasdaq down 0.74% and the Dow down 0.30%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.68% and the semiconductor index 0.35%. The VIX fell 0.46 point to 19.46. Gold fell further than stocks. Gold miners fell 2.8% against gold, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners 2.4% against silver.

Silver price today: down 3.57%, below $52

Spot silver closed at $51.53, down $1.91 from Monday’s close of $53.44. Its high was $53.73 at Monday’s 6:00 PM ET reopen and its low $51.13 in the 15 minutes to 12:45 PM ET. Silver fell 2.65% by 8:45 AM ET, in the same Waller and CPI legs as gold.

From 8:45 AM ET silver fell 0.94% and gold 0.60%, so the ratio rose from 77.99 to 78.26. Its high was 78.51 at 1:00 PM ET. Silver closed below Friday’s New York low of $51.37 at 11:30 AM ET and got back above it by 2:15 PM ET. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 12 to Nov 10 (64 trading days):

Today fit the pattern. Gold futures fell 1.80% and silver futures 1.98%, so the ratio rose 0.14 to 78.42. In spot, silver fell 3.57% against gold’s 2.61%, most of the gap overnight.

Gold/silver ratio: where 78.3 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high was Friday, Nov 6, when it closed at 78.66. It peaked at 79.46 on Nov 3. Before this autumn, the last time was Nov 26, 2025, at 78.7. A month after that the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Nov 7, 2025) the ratio was 83.5, with gold at $4,009.80 and silver at $48.02. To Monday’s close, gold futures were up 2.6% over the year and silver up 9.5%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 22.6% and silver 54.3%, to Monday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.09% on average, and silver fell more on 19. The ratio rose on 19. Today the 2-year rose 0.18 point, gold fell, silver fell more and the ratio rose. Today fit the pattern.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78 after weeks well below it five times before this autumn (February 2003, October 2008, July 2017, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower four times. Five cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has risen on most of gold’s big down days, and it did so today. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $133.10, from $4,013.64 to $4,146.74. That is 1.8 times the median daily range of about $74 in our 15-minute data. Gold closed $114.22 below its high and $18.88 above its low.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Gold’s live reading is still bear: its 12-month return, after cash returns, is 3.0% below zero, and a 3.1% rise would turn it. Silver’s live reading is a correction. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed $108.17 lower than Monday and silver $1.91 lower. Our ask at the close was $4,036.70 for gold and $51.68 for silver.

Your price

Gold moved $133 between its high and low today. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.

Data days move fast

Gold moved $41 inside the 15 minutes after CPI. Jobless claims on Thursday and producer prices on Friday both come out at 8:30 AM ET.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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