Pre-MarketNº 46·2Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 · 8:45 AM ET (7:45 AM CT)
Gold Price Today: Gold Falls 2% to $4,057 as Waller and CPI Lift Fed Hike Odds
Spot gold was $4,056.75 at 8:45 AM ET, down $83.94 from Monday’s close. It fell $36 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller raised the idea of a half-point hike, then dropped to $4,039.72 when October CPI came in above forecasts. Silver is down 2.65% at $52.02.
By the Ausecure Trading Desk · 8 min read
Gold
$4,056.75
−2.03% from $4,140.69 Monday
−0.3% from $4,070.59 Nov 6 close
+4.7% from $3,875.65 Oct 30 close
−6.1% from $4,341.10 Dec 31, futures
Silver
$52.02
−2.65% from $53.44 Monday
+0.1% from $51.94 Nov 6 close
+5.9% from $49.13 Oct 30 close
−26.1% from $70.13 Dec 31, futures
Fed odds from fed funds futures (our calculation); next Fed decision Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET. The YTD tab uses COMEX futures daily closes. For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:45 AM ET on Nov 10, 2026. For Monday’s session, when gold closed up $70.10 at $4,140.69, read the market close note.
The short version
- Gold price today: spot gold is $4,056.75 an ounce at 8:45 AM ET, down $83.94 (2.03%) from Monday’s 5:00 PM ET close of $4,140.69.
- Waller, 4:00 AM ET: the Fed governor said a half-point hike in December “should be considered” if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. Gold fell $36 in the next 90 minutes, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.07 point.
- CPI, 8:30 AM ET: consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and 0.3% excluding food and energy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Forecasts were 0.3% and 0.2%. Gold fell to $4,039.72 in the 15 minutes after the report.
- The yen: it weakened at both moments, as U.S. yields rose. The dollar is at 158.47 yen, up from 157.95 before Waller. China’s October money data aren’t out yet, and the yuan didn’t move.
- Fed odds: fed funds futures now price a December 9 hike as certain, with about 10% odds of a half-point move. At Monday’s close they priced an 85% chance of a quarter point.
- Silver price today: spot silver is $52.02, down $1.42 (2.65%). The gold/silver ratio is 78.0, up from 77.5.
Why is gold down today?
Gold lost $84 overnight in four stretches. The two biggest came with a jump in rate-hike odds: Waller’s speech in London at 4:00 AM ET, and the CPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Together they took about $51.
- Asian hours (6:00 to 11:00 PM ET Monday). Gold reached $4,146.74 at the reopen, then slid $33.65 to $4,111.14. The 2-year yield held at 4.55% to 4.56%, the dollar index was flat and Brent fell about $1. We found no trigger.
- Quiet hours (11:00 PM to 4:00 AM ET). Gold held between $4,108 and $4,128 and ended at $4,113.37.
- Waller (4:00 to 5:30 AM ET). Gold fell $17.61 in the first 15 minutes of his speech, on about 3.7 times normal trading. It kept falling to $4,077.19, a drop of $36.18. In that first bar the 2-year yield rose from 4.55% to 4.61% and the dollar index rose 0.16.
- Waiting for CPI (5:30 to 8:30 AM ET). Gold drifted $5.15 lower to $4,072.04. The 2-year rose to 4.63%.
- CPI (8:30 to 8:45 AM ET). Gold traded as high as $4,081.01 and as low as $4,039.72 in the first 15 minutes, and closed the bar at $4,056.75, down $15.29. The 2-year rose to 4.68%, with a high of 4.72%. The dollar index rose to 101.99.
Our read is that today’s market is the Fed’s doing. Waller made the case for higher rates at 4:00 AM ET and set CPI as the test, so the market priced part of a bigger hike before the number came out. CPI then passed his test. We can see the timing and the volume, not who sold.
China didn’t move gold overnight. Its October money and lending figures haven’t been released; September’s came out in mid-October. China’s October inflation data came out Sunday night, before Monday’s session. The offshore yuan held between 6.665 and 6.669 per dollar all night.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
Today’s economic data and what it means
The October consumer price index was the day’s main release.
| Report | Forecast | Actual | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.4% | October, 8:30 AM ET. Above forecast, after 0.6% in September |
| Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | October, 8:30 AM ET. The level Waller named for a half-point hike |
| CPI y/y | n/a | n/a | Not published. October 2025 prices weren’t collected in the shutdown |
- CPI (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast, after 0.6% in September. Unrounded, the rise was 0.35%. Energy rose 0.7% and gasoline 1.0%. Food rose 0.5%. September’s figures were not revised.
- Core CPI
- Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3%, against a 0.2% forecast, the same pace as September. Unrounded, it was 0.296%. Shelter rose 0.3%, and services excluding energy 0.3%. Goods excluding food and energy rose 0.2%. Used cars fell 1.2%, and airfares rose 0.4%. The bureau didn’t publish a 12-month rate, because it didn’t collect October 2025 prices during the government shutdown.
- What it means for the Fed
- Core inflation has run at 0.3% for two months, and energy is still feeding into other prices. Waller said that pattern would put a half-point December hike on the table. Fed funds futures moved from about 95% odds of a quarter-point hike before the report to a certain hike after it, with about 10% odds of a half point. Odds of at least two hikes by the January 27 meeting rose to about 53%, from 21% at Monday’s close.
- Gold’s reaction
- Gold fell as low as $32.32 below its 8:15 AM ET bar close in the first 15 minutes, then recovered half of that. The 2-year yield rose 0.06 point in the same bar.
- Treasury auction
- The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at 1:00 PM ET.
What it adds up to: today’s data and Waller’s speech raised the expected path of Fed rates, and gold fell with it. Producer prices on Friday are the next inflation report.
How much was the dollar?
The U.S. Dollar Index is 101.99, up 0.32% from Monday’s close. Priced against that basket, gold is down about 1.7%, so the dollar explains a small part of the drop. Over the past two weeks gold is up 0.1% and the dollar is down 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.94%, up 0.05 point from Monday’s close. The 30-year is 5.29%, up 0.01 point. The 2-year is 4.68%, up 0.12 point, so the short end did most of the moving. Treasury’s Monday figures had the 10-year at 4.88% and the 30-year at 5.26%. The 10-year real yield was 2.66% on Monday, up 0.03 point, the Treasury said. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks
Prices keep moving through the morning. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.
The Fed: Waller puts a half-point hike on the table
Governor Christopher Waller spoke at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference in London at 4:00 AM ET (3:00 AM CT). He votes on rates this year.
- December
- He said he would support a quarter-point hike in December even if October inflation improved.
- The CPI test
- If core CPI came in “around 0.3 percent or even higher,” he said, “a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered.” He added that “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk.”
- Inflation
- “September’s inflation data were bad,” he said. He cited new Fed staff work showing energy costs could keep pushing up other prices “well into 2027” if oil stays high.
- Jobs
- He said the labor market is in rough balance, with unemployment at 4.1% in October.
Fed funds futures price a December 9 hike as certain, with about 10% odds of a half point, as of 8:36 AM ET. At Monday’s close, the odds of a quarter-point hike were 85%. Counting the January 27 meeting, futures price about 53% odds of at least two hikes. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, also a voter this year, speaks at 10:50 AM ET. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, another voter, speaks at 6:30 PM ET.
The yen: weaker on each step up in U.S. rates
The yen fell against the dollar at the same two moments gold fell. The dollar rose from 157.95 yen to 158.13 in the first 15 minutes of Waller’s speech, and from 158.17 to 158.47 after the CPI report. Each time, U.S. two-year yields rose and the gap over Japanese rates widened.
The Bank of Japan’s summary of its October meeting, posted at 6:50 PM ET Monday, said some members want to “step up the pace” of hikes toward a neutral rate. The yen didn’t gain on it: the dollar was at 158.05 yen at 7:00 PM ET. So the Bank of Japan’s hint did less than the Fed’s. A weaker yen means a stronger dollar, and that added to the pressure on gold.
Oil, stocks and the World Gold Council
- Oil
- Brent crude is $89.58, down $2.59 since Monday’s close. Gold fell while oil fell this morning, so oil wasn’t behind the drop.
- Stocks
- After the CPI report, S&P 500 futures were down 0.33% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.93% at 8:37 AM ET. Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.87% overnight, and Europe’s STOXX 600 is up 0.77%.
- World Gold Council
- A Metals Focus piece published by the Council said miners’ all-in sustaining costs rose to a record “US$1,930/oz” in the second quarter of 2026.
Silver price today: down 2.65%, at $52
Spot silver is $52.02, down $1.42 from Monday’s close of $53.44. It reached $53.73 at 6:15 PM ET Monday. It fell with gold during Waller’s speech, and dropped to $51.59 after the CPI report before closing the bar just above $52.
Silver lost more than gold in the Asian hours, 1.2% against 0.8%, and the ratio rose from 77.1 to 78.0 by early morning. In the Waller stretch silver fell 0.7% and gold 0.9%. In the CPI bar both fell about 0.4%. The ratio’s high was 78.10 at 7:45 AM ET, before the report. We found no silver-specific news.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days
Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 11 to Nov 9 (64 trading days):
Gold/silver ratio, daily futures close
Biggest one-day risesBiggest one-day falls
- Aug 20Ratio −1.95 as gold rose 0.6% and silver rose 3.5%.
- Sep 10Ratio +2.91 as gold fell 1.2% and silver 5.4%.
- Oct 14Ratio +3.34, the biggest one-day rise, as gold fell 1.7% and silver 6.1%.
- Oct 22Ratio +1.87 as gold fell 2.2% and silver 4.6%.
- Oct 30Ratio +2.17 as gold fell 3.3% and silver 5.9%.
- Nov 4Ratio −1.31 as gold rose 3.4% and silver rose 5.1%.
Each dot is one day in the 90 days. Across: gold’s change. Up: silver’s.
Black line: silver’s average move against gold’s over 90 days. Dashed: a move the same size as gold’s. 1 month: 1.7×. 1 year: 1.9×.
| Level | Ratio | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year high | 83.51 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| 1-month and 90-day high | 79.46 | Nov 3 |
| Monday’s close | 78.28 | Nov 9 |
| 1-month low | 69.50 | Oct 9 |
| 90-day low | 65.65 | Sep 9 |
| 1-year low | 44.16 | Jan 26, the day of silver’s highest close in the year |
1 month: since the Oct 9 close. 90 days: since Aug 11. 1 year: since Nov 7, 2025. All to Monday’s close, from daily COMEX futures closes.
This morning fits the pattern for a down day: gold fell 2.0% and the ratio rose 0.5. The intraday view shows silver’s extra loss came in the Asian hours; in the Waller and CPI stretches it fell about as much as gold.
Gold/silver ratio: where 78.0 sits in the longer history
From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:
- The last time the ratio was this high
- A week ago: the ratio closed at 79.46 on Nov 3, with gold at $3,940 and silver at $49.59.
- A year ago
- On Nov 7, 2025 the ratio was 83.5, with gold at $4,010 and silver at $48.02. To Monday’s settlement, gold futures were up 2.6% over the year and silver up 9.5%.
- Before gold’s record
- The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before, 51.2 a week before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.
- Since the record
- Gold futures are down 22.6% and silver 54.3%, to Monday’s settlement.
- Rate days
- Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, silver fell more than gold on 19, and the ratio rose on 19. This morning the 2-year is up 0.12 point, and the pattern has held so far: gold is down, silver is down more and the ratio is up.
- Other jumps to this level
- Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78 after weeks well below it in February 2003, October 2008, July 2017, September 2020 and September 2021. Three months later it was lower in four of the five. Five cases is a small sample, and it is history, not a forecast.
| Ratio level | Ratio | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| A year ago | 83.5 | Nov 7, 2025 futures close |
| Nov 3 futures | 79.46 | The highest daily futures close in 90 days, and the last time it was this high |
| Night high | 78.10 | Spot, 7:45 AM ET, before the CPI report |
| This morning | 77.99 | 8:30 AM ET bar, after CPI |
| Mon close | 77.49 | Spot, where today’s move started |
| Night low | 77.10 | Spot, 8:00 PM ET Monday, silver’s strongest point |
| 90-day median | 68.55 | Daily futures closes since Aug 11 |
| At gold’s record | 46.6 | Jan 29, 2026, gold’s record close |
In the past 90 days, the ratio has risen on most of gold’s big down days, and it rose this morning. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.
Gold and silver price levels we’re watching
| Level | Gold | Silver | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Night highs | $4,146.74 | $53.73 | Monday evening at the reopen, 6:00 to 6:30 PM ET |
| Mon close | $4,140.69 | $53.44 | 5:00 PM ET Monday, where today’s move started |
| Round number | $4,100 | $52.00 | Gold has closed below $4,100 since 4:00 AM ET. Silver traded below $52 after CPI and closed the bar just above it |
| Pre-CPI lows | $4,068.10 | $52.06 | Both in the 8:15 AM ET bar, just before the report |
| CPI lows | $4,039.72 | $51.59 | Both in the 8:30 AM ET bar, after the report |
| Fri lows | $4,029.83 | $51.37 | Friday’s New York lows after the jobs report. Not tested today |
| Round number | $4,000 | $50.00 | Gold last closed below $4,000 on Nov 3; silver below $50 on Nov 3 |
Gold’s range since the reopen is $107.02, about 1.5 times a typical full day over the past two months.
Trend check
On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Their 12-month and one-month returns, after cash returns, were both down. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. Gold’s live 12-month return is 1.9% below zero, so it would take a 2.0% rise to turn it positive. Silver’s live reading is a correction.
Economic calendar: what’s next for gold
- Tue Nov 10, 10:50 AM ET
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks.
- Tue Nov 10, 1:00 PM ET
- $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks at 1:30 PM ET.
- Tue Nov 10, 3:30 PM ET
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks, and again at 6:30 PM ET. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks at 6:30 PM ET.
- Wed Nov 11
- Veterans Day. The bond market is closed.
- Thu Nov 12, 8:30 AM ET
- Weekly jobless claims. Freddie Mac’s mortgage survey at 12:00 PM ET and a 30-year Treasury auction at 1:00 PM ET.
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This weekAusecure closing ask
| Day | Gold | Change | Silver | Silver change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonNov 9 | $4,145.10 | +1.8% | $53.56 | +2.8% |
| TueNov 10 | $4,036.70 | −2.6% | $51.68 | −3.5% |
| WeekendWeekly email | Read last week’s | |||
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What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold is about $84 below Monday’s close and silver about $1.42 below it. In the 15 minutes after the CPI report, gold traded in a $41 range.
- Your price
- Gold moved $41 inside one 15-minute bar after CPI. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
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- Most products on our site show their “% over spot” under the price, so you can compare a coin with a bar on equal terms.
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- Retirement
- See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
- Selling
- We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $4,056.75 an ounce at 8:45 AM ET on Nov 10, 2026, down $83.94 (2.03%) from Monday’s close of $4,140.69. Since Monday evening’s reopen it has traded between $4,039.72 and $4,146.74. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.
Why did gold fall at 3:00 AM Central time?
Fed Governor Christopher Waller began a speech in London at that time. He said a half-point December hike should be considered if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. Gold fell $17.61 in that 15-minute bar and $36 by 4:30 AM Central, as the 2-year yield and the dollar rose.
How did gold react to the October CPI report?
Core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, the level Waller had named. Gold fell to $4,039.72 within 15 minutes and closed the bar at $4,056.75. Fed funds futures moved to a certain December hike, with about 10% odds of a half point.
Did gold fall before CPI because traders expected a high number?
Part of the drop came before the report. It followed Waller’s speech, which made the CPI number the test for a bigger hike. December hike odds rose from 85% at Monday’s close to about 95% before the report. The earlier $34 slide in Asian hours came with no move in rates.
Did China’s data or the yen move gold overnight?
China’s October money and lending data haven’t been released, and the yuan held at about 6.67 per dollar all night. The yen weakened when U.S. yields rose, after Waller and again after CPI. That added to the dollar’s strength and to gold’s drop.
Is a drop like this a good time to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Gold is $84 below Monday’s close, and the Fed meets on Dec 9. Some buyers wait; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 8:48 AM ET on Nov 10, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: OANDA spot gold and silver, TVC dollar index, Treasury yields and Brent crude via TradingView; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Consumer Price Index, October 2026); Federal Reserve Board (Governor Waller, “The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism,” Nov 10, 2026; calendar); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED (2-year Treasury yield); Bank of Japan (Summary of Opinions, Oct 29–30 meeting); World Gold Council (Gold Focus, Nov 10, 2026); People’s Bank of China (financial statistics release schedule); yen and offshore yuan rates via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Forex Factory economic calendar (forecasts); COMEX gold and silver futures and index data via Yahoo Finance and TradingView (delayed); Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX front-month futures and T-bill rates via Yahoo Finance).
How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
