Gold Price Today: Gold Falls 1.4% to $3,963, Below $4,000, as Silver Breaks $50

This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:40 AM ET on Oct 30, 2026. For Thursday’s session, when gold fell to $4,005.37 and silver to a 2026 low, read the market close note.

Update, 9:16 AM ET: the selling continued after this note’s 8:40 AM ET prices. Spot silver closed a 15-minute bar below $50 at 9:00 AM ET ($49.85), the first such close in our data, which starts Sep 23; its low was $49.62 and it is now $49.88, down $2.27 (4.34%) from Thursday’s close. Spot gold closed below $3,950 in the same bar ($3,945.34), touched $3,937.18 and is now $3,947.51, down $73.06 (1.82%). Chip and AI stocks were still lower before the 9:30 AM ET open. The pre-market figures below are as of 8:40 AM ET. Tonight’s market close note will cover the full U.S. session.

Why is gold down today?

Gold is down $57.91 because of selling in four bursts, each on heavier than normal volume, and the two biggest lined up with falls in technology stocks. It did not come from the dollar or interest rates. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.12% lower than at Thursday’s close, which on its own would help gold. The 10-year Treasury yield is 0.01 point lower and the 2-year 0.01 point higher. Fed funds futures put the odds of a December 9 hike at about 74%, the same as at Thursday’s close. Our measure of the dollar’s effect explains almost none of the move.

1. A slow start (6:00 to 7:45 PM ET Thursday). Gold slipped $13 from its close to $4,008 on light volume. Nasdaq futures had already fallen after Thursday’s stock close, when Intel and Amazon reported.
2. Selling at the Tokyo open (8:30 to 9:30 PM ET). Gold fell $16 to $4,000.40. The 9:00 PM ET bar traded more than three times normal volume and silver fell 1.0% in those 15 minutes alone. In the same hour Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei index fell 1.8%. At 9:30 PM ET Brent crude jumped $1.80 after a report of an attack on a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz; gold dipped $8.76 in that bar and rose $6.91 in the next, so oil did not drive it.
3. Through $4,000 (10:00 to 11:30 PM ET). Gold fell $19 to $3,993.36 and closed below $4,000 for the first time at 10:45 PM ET. The Bank of Japan’s decision at 11:02 PM ET, a hold with one official voting for a hike, moved gold less than $8 either way.
4. A second break after midnight (1:15 to 2:45 AM ET). Gold fell $23, from $4,006.39 to $3,983.00, with the biggest 15 minutes (−$10.62) at 1:45 AM ET. Its last close above $4,000 was the 1:30 AM ET bar. The dollar was steady and we found no headline at that time.
5. A London bounce, then pre-market selling. Gold rose $22 to $3,997.28 between 3:45 and 4:45 AM ET, then fell $38 to its low of $3,959.27 at 8:15 AM ET, most of it after 6:00 AM ET. The 8:00 AM ET bar traded three times normal volume. Nasdaq futures fell further as Amazon traded about 7% lower and Intel about 25% lower before the open, CNBC reported. Brent and the dollar were flat.

Gold falling with stocks, rather than rising as a haven, fits investors raising cash across markets. That is our inference: we can see when the selling came and how heavy it was, not who sold. Reuters described gold as hitting a three-and-a-half-month low on Fed hike fears; our numbers do not support that for the overnight move, since December hike odds were unchanged at about 74% and the 2-year yield moved 0.01 point. Gold is down 4.7% in October with one trading day left, and silver 17.2%.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

The U.S. released one report at 8:30 AM ET: the employment cost index for the third quarter, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index follows at 9:45 AM ET. The University of Michigan’s final October survey came out last Friday, not today.

Employment cost index (Bureau of Labor Statistics): what employers pay in wages and benefits rose 0.8% in July through September, as forecast, after 0.9% in the second quarter. Wages and salaries rose 0.7%, down from 0.9%, and benefits 0.9%, down from 1.0%. Over 12 months, total compensation is up 3.4%, wages 3.1% and benefits 3.9%. The Fed watches this index because it adjusts for shifts in the mix of jobs. Wage growth of about 3% a year is not adding to inflation the way energy is, so this report gives the Fed no new reason to hike and no reason to ease.

How gold reacted: gold futures rose from $3,972.60 to $3,978.10 in the five minutes after 8:30 AM ET and were back at $3,970.60 by 8:40 AM ET. Two-year Treasury futures stayed within 0.03 point and the dollar index edged up 0.04. Fed funds futures put the odds of a December 9 hike at about 74%, the same as at Thursday’s close.

What it adds up to: an in-line wage report after Thursday’s strong growth figures leaves a December hike the base case in futures, at about 74%, and did not move gold. The overnight fall came before the data. Next: the Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET, and the first Fed speaker since Wednesday’s decision, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, at 12:00 PM ET.

How much was the dollar?

The dollar did not help explain gold’s fall. The U.S. Dollar Index is 101.77, down 0.12% from Thursday’s close, in a range of 101.54 to 101.94 overnight. A lower dollar usually supports gold. Over the past two weeks gold is down about 4.9% and the dollar is almost unchanged.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.93% and the 30-year 5.31%, each within 0.01 point of Thursday’s close, and the 2-year is 4.61%. Treasury’s Thursday figures had the 10-year at 4.98% and the 30-year at 5.32%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier, and the 15-year was 6.60%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Tech stocks, oil, Hormuz and the Bank of Japan

• Stocks and the AI sell-off: S&P 500 futures were down 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures 2.6% at 8:29 AM ET. At 9:12 AM ET, before the open, Intel was down 26% from Thursday’s close after it warned it would burn cash this year, Amazon 7% after higher spending plans and a cash outflow, AMD 10%, Micron 6.5%, Broadcom 4.5% and Nvidia 2.5%; a chip-stock fund (SMH) was down 5%. The chip selling reached the suppliers: TSMC closed down 1.9% in Taipei and its U.S. shares were down 4% before the open, and ASML was down 5.7% in Amsterdam. Investors are questioning the cost of the AI build-out, a day after Alphabet’s slide. Japan’s Nikkei closed down 2.1% and Germany’s DAX was down 0.9%. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, was 18.7, up 1.5 but below 20. Gold fell at the same times as tech stocks overnight, which is the main timing match we found for its move.
• Oil and a limpet-mine attack in Hormuz: Brent crude for January delivery was $113.37, up $1.80 from Thursday afternoon, in a range of $111.03 to $114.07. Most of the rise came in one jump at 9:30 PM ET, as reports spread of an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. A small boat attached two limpet mines to the hull of the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, causing an engine-room fire that was put out; the crew was safe, Reuters reported, citing security sources. It was the first known successful limpet-mine strike in the area since the war began, and it was not immediately clear who carried it out. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards separately said tankers had hit mines on a route they call unauthorized. Gold fell $8.76 in the 15 minutes of the oil jump and rose $6.91 in the next 15, so the attack did not move gold either way for long.
• Qatar’s mediators back in Tehran: Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday to push for an interim U.S.-Iran deal, in coordination with Washington, Reuters reported, citing an official briefed on the talks. A senior Iranian official called the draft presented on Sunday “unacceptable”, and Tehran wants the U.S. port blockade and oil sanctions lifted first. The report was first relayed at about 3:30 AM ET; gold fell $9 in the next half hour and then rose $22 in the London morning, so we see no clear reaction to it.
• Binance hack: Binance, the largest crypto exchange, halted withdrawals after a hack it put at about $6.3 billion, the largest crypto theft on record, according to its statement late Thursday reported by NBC News and CNBC; Tether and Circle froze about $2.4 billion of stablecoins linked to it. Bitcoin fell about 2.6% between 6:45 and 8:30 PM ET. Gold slipped $10 over the same stretch on light volume; its heavier selling began after bitcoin’s drop had ended, so we do not tie gold’s fall to the hack.
• Bank of Japan: the BoJ held its rate at about 1.25% at 11:02 PM ET by an 8–1 vote; board member Hajime Takata voted for a rise to 1.5%. The bank raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2027 to 2.6% from 2.4% and said risks to prices are “skewed to the upside”. It will also more than double the pace of its ETF sales from January 2027. The dollar stayed between 157.13 and 157.44 yen and gold moved less than $8.
• Europe: the European Central Bank’s survey of professional forecasters, released at 5:00 AM ET, raised expected euro-area inflation to 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, on energy. It follows Thursday’s ECB hold, where officials debated a hike. No gold move at the time.

Silver price today: down 4.1%, testing $50

Spot silver is $50.02, down $2.12 from Thursday’s close of $52.15. It fell further than gold in each burst: 1.0% in the 9:00 PM ET bar alone, below $51 from 2:00 AM ET, and to $49.99 in the 8:00 and 8:15 AM ET bars. The lowest 15-minute close was $50.02, so silver has touched $50 but not broken it on a closing basis. On COMEX futures, silver last closed below $50 on Nov 21, 2025. Silver is down 12.2% from its Oct 16 close of $56.97, against gold’s 4.9%, and down 17.2% in October.

The gold/silver ratio (how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys) is 79.2, up from 77.1 at Thursday’s close. It rose in steps with each selling burst and reached 79.21 at 8:30 AM ET, near silver’s low. Silver’s fall was 2.8 times gold’s in percentage terms, more than its recent 1.8 times (see below). Shanghai silver fell less than New York overnight. We found no silver-specific news; the selling came at the same times as gold’s.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Using daily COMEX futures closes for the 90 days from Aug 3 to Oct 29 (63 trading days), here is how the ratio behaves when gold moves:

• Silver moves with gold, but further. Daily gold and silver moves had a correlation of 0.83, and silver’s daily move was about 1.4 times gold’s. Over the past 20 trading days it has been about 1.8 times.
• The ratio usually moves against gold. On the 23 days when gold moved more than 1%, the ratio went the other way on 18. Gold rose more than 1% on 9 days, and the ratio fell on 6 of them; gold fell more than 1% on 14 days, and the ratio rose on 12.
• Silver has lagged on the way down and not caught up on the way up. In the past month the ratio rose by about 0.54 on an average day when gold fell, and by 0.06 on an average day when gold rose.
• Overnight followed the pattern. The ratio was 77.1 at Thursday’s close, rose to 78.0 in the 9:00 PM ET burst, held between 77.6 and 78.0 until 1:45 AM ET, rose to 78.4 in the second break and to 79.2 in the pre-market slide as silver reached $50.
• Where it sits: Thursday’s futures close of 77.24 was the highest in the 90 days, and this morning’s futures ratio, about 79.1, is above it. The 90-day low was 65.65 on Sep 9 and the middle value 68.5.

Gold/silver ratio: where 79.2 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

• The last time the ratio was this high was Nov 25, 2025, when it closed at 81.3 with gold at $4,140 and silver at $50.93. What followed was silver’s run to its record: a month later the ratio was 59.5, with silver up 50% and gold up 10%; three months later it was 56.6. That is one episode, during an unusual silver rally, not a forecast.
• A year ago (Oct 29, 2025) the ratio was 83.8, with gold at $4,001 and silver at $47.72. Since then gold futures are up 0.8% and silver 9.4% (to Thursday’s close), so the ratio is still 6.6 points lower than a year ago.
• Before gold’s record: the ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026; 84.5 three months before; 62.2 a month before; and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2. In that rally, a falling ratio came with gold making new highs.
• Since the record: gold futures are down 24.2% and silver 54.6% to Thursday’s close, and the ratio has risen from 44 to 79. Over the same stretch the 2-year Treasury yield rose from 3.53% to 4.67%.
• Hawkish days have hit silver harder. Since gold’s record, on the 29 days when the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more, gold fell on 22, by 1.1% on average; silver fell 2.0% on average and fell further than gold on 19; the ratio rose on 19. On the 20 days when the 2-year yield fell 0.05 point or more, gold and silver both rose about 0.75% and the ratio was flat on average. Overnight looked like a hawkish day, with gold down and the ratio up 2.1, but without the rate move: the 2-year yield is up 0.01 point and hike odds are unchanged.
• Other times the ratio jumped to this level: since 2000 it has crossed above 79 after weeks well below it five times (February 2003, October 2008, August 2015, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later the ratio was lower in four of the five, by 4 to 8 points, and gold was down 4% to 9% in three of them. Five cases is a small sample.

In past data, a fall in gold has usually come with silver doing worse and the ratio rising, most of all on days when rate expectations rose. Overnight the ratio rose 2.1 points with no rate move behind it. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels we’re watching

Gold’s overnight range was $67, larger than the typical day of about $58 over the past month. Gold is 0.9% below $4,000; silver is less than 0.1% above $50. On COMEX futures, gold has not closed below $4,000 since July 16, and silver has not closed below $50 since Nov 21, 2025.

Trend check: on our monthly trend model, both metals are in a correction: their 12-month trend, after cash returns, is still up and September was a down month (readings as of Sep 30). Since 2002, gold has risen in the month after a correction month about 60% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. Today is October’s last trading day, and the live readings decide the next official reading: at this level the model would read bear for gold, which would need to rise about 4.5% to avoid it. Silver would still read correction, but only just: a further fall of about 1.2% in silver futures would turn its 12-month trend down.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 74% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 8:38 AM ET, the same as at Thursday’s close and down from about 85% on Wednesday.

The January 27 meeting, by our calculation from fed funds futures (as of 8:59 AM ET): about 30% odds of a quarter-point hike at that meeting itself, up from about 28% at Thursday’s close. Counting December and January together, futures price about an 18% chance of no hike by January 27, about 60% of one quarter-point hike and about 22% of two, so about 82% odds of at least one hike by then. For March 17, the odds of at least one hike by that meeting are about 92%.

No Fed releases or speeches came out overnight. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives welcome remarks at a conference at 12:00 PM ET (11:00 AM CT), the first comments from a Fed official since Wednesday’s decision. The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, was 2.63% at Thursday’s close, down 0.04 point on the day and 0.30 point over the past month, according to the U.S. Treasury. Lower real yields have not lifted gold this week.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold is about $58 cheaper than at Thursday’s close and below $4,000, and silver is about $2.12 cheaper, near $50. Silver has fallen much further, so one ounce of gold is now worth about 79 ounces of silver, more than at any daily close since November 2025. A few practical points:

• Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market. Gold moved $67 overnight and today is the month’s last trading day, so the price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
• Compare the premium over spot. Most products on our site show their “% over spot” under the price, so you can compare a coin with a bar on equal terms.
• Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
• Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
• Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.

Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

Frequently asked questions

What is the gold price today?

Spot gold was $3,962.66 an ounce at 8:40 AM ET on Oct 30, 2026, down $57.91 (1.44%) from Thursday’s 5:00 PM ET close of $4,020.57. Overnight it traded between $3,959.27 and $4,026.55. It then fell below $3,950 and was $3,947.51 at 9:16 AM ET, down $73.06 (1.82%). For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.

Why did gold fall below $4,000?

Gold fell in four bursts of selling overnight. It first closed a 15-minute bar below $4,000 at 10:45 PM ET Thursday and has stayed below since 1:45 AM ET. The two largest bursts, at the Tokyo open and in U.S. pre-market trading, came as Nasdaq futures fell on Amazon’s and Intel’s results. The dollar index fell 0.12% and December Fed hike odds stayed at about 74%, so rates and the dollar did not cause it.

Did silver break $50?

Yes. Spot silver first traded at $49.99 at 8:00 AM ET, and at 9:00 AM ET it closed a 15-minute bar below $50 for the first time, at $49.85, with a low of $49.62. It was $49.88 at 9:16 AM ET, down 4.34% from Thursday’s close. On COMEX futures, silver last closed below $50 on Nov 21, 2025.

Why is silver down so much more than gold?

Silver fell at the same times as gold but further: 4.07% against gold’s 1.44%, or 2.8 times as much, compared with about 1.8 times on a typical day over the past month. Its biggest single drop, 1.0% in 15 minutes, came at the Tokyo open at 9:00 PM ET, as stocks fell in Asia. The gold/silver ratio rose to 79.2, the highest since November 2025.

Is gold below $4,000 a good time to buy?

We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Gold has fallen 1.4% overnight and 4.7% in October, and today’s month-end close can move prices further either way. Some buyers add when prices fall; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.

This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 8:40 AM ET on Oct 30, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.

Sources: OANDA spot gold and silver, TVC dollar index, Treasury yields and Brent crude via TradingView; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employment Cost Index, third quarter 2026); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco calendars; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED (2-year Treasury yield); Bank of Japan (Statement on Monetary Policy and Outlook Report, Oct 30, 2026); European Central Bank (Survey of Professional Forecasters, Oct 30, 2026); UK Maritime Trade Operations (as reported); CNBC (Amazon and Intel, Oct 30); Reuters (gold market report); COMEX gold and silver futures, Treasury futures, Brent futures, currencies and index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Forex Factory economic calendar; Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX front-month futures and T-bill rates via Yahoo Finance).

How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.