Gold Closes Up 0.2% at $4,067.29 After a $58 Swing on the Fed’s Hold

Why is gold up today?

Our pre-market note had gold at $4,053.88 at 8:44 AM ET after an overnight round trip of $42, and set two marks for the Fed: Friday’s high of $4,034 below and the overnight high of $4,071 above. Gold traded through both today and closed between them, $13.41 above the morning price.

1. A slow slide into the decision. From 8:30 AM ET to 12:15 PM ET, gold fell from $4,056.85 to $4,037.72 on 15-minute closes. Over the same hours the 2-year Treasury yield rose from 4.75% to 4.78%, the 10-year from 5.00% to 5.04%, and Brent crude climbed to $112.50. Higher yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.

2. A dip on the statement. At 2:00 PM ET (1:00 PM CT) the Fed held rates and two officials dissented in favor of a hike. Gold futures jumped to $4,061 and fell back to $4,045 within ten minutes on heavy volume; spot gold touched $4,030.26. The 10-year yield rose to 5.05% and the dollar index edged up. December fed funds futures edged up 0.015 points in the half hour after the statement, which implies a slightly lower rate, so markets did not add to their hike bets.

3. The press conference: down $43, then up. As Chair Warsh began speaking at 2:30 PM ET, spot gold fell to $4,024.67, the day’s low, then rose $43 within the same 15 minutes, on more than seven times normal volume. By 2:45 PM ET the dollar index had fallen from 102.34 to 102.07 and the 10-year yield from 5.03% to 5.01%, and gold futures reached $4,081. Gold then gave back $24 in ten minutes as the dollar and yields bounced, closing one quarter-hour at $4,033.16, before rising again from 3:00 PM ET. On our timing, the drop came around his answer that there is “no soft inflation target,” and the turn higher around his answer that the Fed gives no guidance on December; we can see the timing, not who was trading.

4. Oil fell, and gold made its high. Between 3:50 and 4:00 PM ET, Brent crude fell $1.35, from $111.35 to $110.00. It came as reports of U.S.-Iran contacts circulated: NewsNation reported exchanges through mediators on a seven-day plan at 3:42 PM ET, with nothing finalized, and around 4:00 PM ET the Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to try to restart talks. We could not tie the first minute of the drop to a single headline. Gold futures rose $20 in those ten minutes on heavy volume, and spot gold reached $4,082.83, the day’s high. It eased to $4,067.29 by the close.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

How much of today’s move was the dollar?

The dollar helped gold today. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.25% to 102.13, with most of the drop in the 15 minutes after the press conference began. Based on how gold has traded against the dollar since Tuesday’s close, a dollar move that size points to gold rising about 0.6%. Gold rose 0.17%, less than the dollar alone would suggest; most of the gap built up in the morning, when gold fell as yields rose.

Measured against a basket of major currencies (gold × DXY), gold ended the day about 0.1% lower.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

The Fed’s decision: a hold, two votes for a hike

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, after raising it by a quarter point in September. The vote was 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred another quarter-point hike. There were no new economic projections at this meeting.

• What changed in the statement: the Fed now describes the economy as expanding at a “strong” pace, up from “solid” in September. It dropped September’s line that its policy action would support a timelier return to 2% inflation, and added that “the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate” to return inflation to 2% in a timely way. It kept “Inflation remains elevated” and “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
• The rates the Fed sets: interest on reserve balances stays at 3.90% and the overnight reverse repo rate at 3.75%, effective Oct 29.
• Warsh’s opening statement: growth has picked up, with third-quarter growth “likely running above 3 percent,” and inflation has been above the Fed’s goal “for close to 6 years,” so the meeting focused mainly on price stability. Financial conditions have tightened for some borrowers since September, but he said he is “unwilling and unable to call them tight,” and that the Fed has shown “readiness to act” and “willingness to act.”
• In the questions (from our transcript of the Fed’s video; the Fed has not yet posted its official transcript): Warsh said there is no soft or implicit inflation target (“it’s 2 percent”), that the Fed gives no forward guidance outside a crisis and will not prejudge the December meeting, and that while oil is up on geopolitics, market interest rates “have rolled over to the downside.” Asked whether the economy is running too hot, he said that is not the judgment of most of his colleagues. He said politics played no role in the decision, six days before the midterm elections.
• A schedule change: the Fed will still meet eight times a year, but from 2027 one meeting will be for strategy only, with no rate decision or statement; Warsh expects two such meetings in 2028.
• What markets did with it: fed funds futures still imply about an 85% chance of a hike on Dec 9, as of 5:01 PM ET, close to this morning’s 85%; odds for the Jan 27 meeting eased to about 37% from 39% this morning. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.70% on the day, while the 10-year rose to 5.02% and the 30-year to 5.33%, so the gap between short and long rates widened.

Our read (analysis, not advice): the statement leaned hawkish, with two votes for a hike and inflation front and center. Warsh did not commit to December, and by the close gold and the 2-year yield had traded on that part.

Ausecure’s Peter Thomas on Asharq Bloomberg

Peter Thomas, Ausecure’s chairman, spoke live from Chicago on Asharq Bloomberg’s coverage of the U.S. rate decision from about 3:24 to 3:34 PM ET, with spot gold at $4,054.96 at 3:30 PM ET, mid-interview, on our 15-minute data. The interview was in Arabic; his main points:

• Gold: inflation weighs on gold, which pays no interest or dividend, but the geopolitical backdrop, including the Strait of Hormuz, keeps it relatively steady.
• The Fed: only two members wanted another hike and the rest voted to hold. He is not sure there will be three more hikes; without them, gold and silver should hold firm, and if they come, pressure on both would increase.
• Silver: unlike gold, silver has many industrial and medical uses, and demand has exceeded production for five years, going on six, so industrial demand alone can support it.
• China: new rules allow Chinese insurers to invest in foreign assets, China bought 62 tonnes of gold from Russia, and the yuan has steadied on strong exports.
• Central banks: Russia’s gold holdings are at their lowest since 2019 after sales to fund the war, and it could return to buying. Central banks now treat gold as a top-tier reserve asset, and he expects their buying to continue in 2027.

Today’s economic data and what it means

Today’s U.S. reports were light and came before the Fed decision, which set the tone for the day. The Bank of Canada raised rates in the morning, as expected.

Trade and inventories (U.S. Census Bureau): the advance goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September from $132.1 billion in August, about $4.5 billion more than forecast. Wholesale inventories rose 0.6% and retail inventories 0.3%, with August’s retail figure revised up to 0.3%. A wider deficit subtracts from growth, so these figures feed into tomorrow’s first estimate of third-quarter GDP. Spot gold slipped $2.30 in the quarter-hour after the 8:30 AM ET release.

Crude inventories (U.S. Energy Information Administration): commercial crude stocks fell 1.892 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week to Oct 23, against forecasts for a small build. Tighter supply supports oil prices, which feed into inflation. Brent held near $111.80 in the half hour after the 10:30 AM ET report, and gold slipped $1.34 in that quarter-hour.

Bank of Canada: Canada’s central bank raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, as expected, and said “there could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully.” Gold moved less than $1 in the quarter-hour after the 9:45 AM ET decision.

Treasury auctions (U.S. Treasury): the Treasury sold $75 billion of 17-week bills at 4.140% (bid-to-cover 3.08) and $30 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes at a high discount margin of 0.038% (bid-to-cover 3.05). Gold rose $1.92 in the quarter-hour after the 11:30 AM ET results.

What it adds up to: the morning data did not change the Fed picture; the decision and the press conference did the work, and December hike odds ended the day where they started, near 85%. Thursday brings the bigger tests at 8:30 AM ET: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP (forecast 3.2%), September PCE inflation (core forecast +0.3% for the month) and weekly jobless claims, then the European Central Bank’s decision at 9:15 AM ET.

Oil, the Gulf, central banks and the rest of the day’s news

• Iran and oil: oil rose for most of the day as markets weighed a Wall Street Journal report, published overnight, that the U.S. had told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for “a short, intense military campaign” against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude for January reached $112.61 around noon ET and ended at $110.45, up $0.67 from Tuesday; U.S. crude settled at $102.78, up $2.88. Gold fell in the morning as oil and Treasury yields rose.
• Diplomacy: in the afternoon, NewsNation reported exchanges through mediators on a seven-day plan, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who now leads Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to try to restart talks, citing U.S. officials. Reuters said it could not immediately verify the report. Oil fell late in the session as these reports came out.
• Real yields and mortgages: the 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, rose to 2.67% from 2.64%, still near the bottom of its range over the past month, according to Treasury data. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to 2.38%, the top of its range over the past month. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 22), down 0.08 point from a week earlier, and the 15-year was 6.68%. The next survey is out Thursday.
• Israel’s election: with 89.8% of votes counted, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloc had 53 seats, the Eisenkot-led bloc 48 and Arab-led parties 19, according to the Central Elections Committee count reported by the Times of Israel. No bloc has the 61 seats needed for a majority. We found no gold reaction.
• Central bank gold: no new official data today. The latest World Gold Council figures show central banks reported net buying of 39 tonnes in August and 170 tonnes so far this year, led by China (20 tonnes in August) and Poland (98 tonnes this year). September figures are due in early November. Global gold ETFs drew US$10bn in September, lifting holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council.
• Stocks: the S&P 500 closed up 0.28% and the chip index 1.75%; the VIX volatility index fell to 16.9. Stocks and gold rose together, so this was not a flight to safety.
• Mining shares: gold miners rose 0.6% against gold (GDX/GLD) and junior silver miners 1.2% against silver (SILJ/SLV).

Silver price today: down 0.8% as the ratio hits 75.4

Silver ended at $53.97 on spot, down 45 cents from Tuesday’s $54.42 and down 22 cents from this morning. It fell faster than gold before the Fed, from $54.25 at 9:00 AM ET to $53.48 by 10:45 AM ET, a 1.4% drop against gold’s 0.3%. In the press-conference swing it fell to $53.30, the day’s low, at 2:30 PM ET. It gained more than gold in the late rally, reaching $54.63 after 4:00 PM ET, then slipped back below $54.

That left the gold/silver ratio at 75.4, up from 74.6 on Tuesday. An ounce of gold now buys about 75 ounces of silver, the most in 90 days on daily futures closes.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Our pre-market note set out the ratio’s levels this morning. Here is how the ratio has behaved when gold moves, using daily COMEX futures closes for the 90 days from July 30 to today (64 trading days):

• Silver moves with gold, but further. Daily gold and silver moves had a correlation of 0.82, and silver’s daily move was about 1.4 times gold’s. Over the past 20 trading days that has risen to about 1.8 times.
• The ratio usually moves against gold. On the 24 days when gold moved more than 1%, the ratio went the other way on 19. Gold rose more than 1% on 10 days, and the ratio fell on 7 of them; gold fell more than 1% on 14 days, and the ratio rose on 12.
• Lately, silver has lagged on the way up too. In the past month the ratio rose by about 0.5 on an average day when gold fell, and still rose by about 0.2 on an average day when gold rose.
• Today followed the recent tilt, not the 90-day pattern. Spot gold rose 0.17% and the ratio rose 0.75. Silver fell more than gold in the morning and in the 2:30 PM ET dip, and did better than gold only in the late rally, when the ratio dipped to 75.0 before rising again to 75.4 by 4:30 PM ET.

In past data, a rise in gold has usually come with silver doing better and the ratio falling. The past month has been tilted against silver on both up and down days for gold, and today was another such day. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold covered about $58 from low to high since Tuesday evening, the same as a typical day over the past few weeks. Both the low and the high came within 90 minutes of the start of the press conference.

Trend check: On our monthly trend model, gold and silver both ended September in a correction: the 12-month trend was still up (gold +4.2%, silver +25.3% after cash returns) while September itself fell. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a correction month 60% of the time; history, not a forecast. With two trading days left in October, gold’s trailing 12-month return is −2.1%: if October ended at today’s level, the model would read bear for gold. Gold would need to rise about 2.2% to turn that figure positive; silver’s 12-month trend is still up.

What’s next: tonight through Friday

What today means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold made both its low and its high within 90 minutes of the Fed’s press conference and closed $6.96 higher, while silver closed at its weakest against gold in 90 days. For buyers of coins and bars, the practical questions are what you pay over spot and when your price is set:

• Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so an order placed tonight, or after Thursday’s 8:30 AM ET GDP and inflation data, uses that moment’s price.
• Compare the premium over spot. Most products show their “% over spot” under the price, so a coin and a bar can be compared on equal terms. With the ratio near 75.4, an ounce of gold costs about 75 ounces of silver.
• Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
• Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
• Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.

Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

Frequently asked questions

How did gold close today?

Spot gold closed Oct 28, 2026 at $4,067.29 an ounce at 5:00 PM ET, up $6.96 (0.17%) from Tuesday’s $4,060.33. It ranged from $4,024.67 at 2:30 PM ET, as the Fed press conference began, to $4,082.83 just after 4:00 PM ET.

Did the Fed raise rates on Oct 28?

No. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at 2:00 PM ET, on a 10 to 2 vote; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point hike. Chair Warsh said the Fed will not prejudge its Dec 9 meeting. As of 5:01 PM ET, fed funds futures imply about an 85% chance of a hike in December.

Why did gold swing so much during the press conference?

Gold fell to $4,024.67 as Warsh began speaking at 2:30 PM ET, then rose $43 within 15 minutes as the dollar index fell from 102.34 to 102.07 and the 10-year yield eased. It dropped $24 in ten minutes when the dollar and yields bounced, then rose again after he said the Fed gives no guidance on December. Volume was more than seven times normal.

Why did silver fall when gold rose?

Silver fell harder than gold before the Fed, down 1.4% to $53.48 by 10:45 AM ET against gold’s 0.3%, and dropped further to $53.30 in the 2:30 PM ET dip. It outpaced gold only in the late rally and gave that back, so it closed down 0.83% while gold gained 0.17%. Over the past month, silver has lagged gold on both up and down days.

Is buying after a Fed day swing like this a good idea?

We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term highs or lows, especially with GDP and inflation data due tomorrow morning. Some buyers wait for pullbacks; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.

This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:10 PM ET on Oct 28, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.

Sources: Ausecure analysis of OANDA spot prices (XAU/USD, XAG/USD); Federal Reserve (FOMC statement and implementation note, Oct 28, 2026; Chair’s opening statement; press conference video, Ausecure transcript); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Census Bureau (advance economic indicators); U.S. Energy Information Administration (weekly petroleum status report); U.S. Treasury (auction results, daily yield curves and real yield curves); Bank of Canada; NYMEX (crude settlement); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); World Gold Council (Central Bank Gold Statistics, Oct 6, 2026; Gold ETF Flows: September 2026, Oct 7, 2026); Asharq Bloomberg (Oct 28, 2026, Arabic interview, Ausecure translation); The Wall Street Journal (Gulf states briefing; Vance outreach); NewsNation; Al Arabiya; U.S. Central Command; The Times of Israel (election count); COMEX gold and silver futures and Brent futures via Yahoo Finance; index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); OANDA, TVC (incl. Brent), COMEX and BATS data via TradingView; Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX gold and silver futures and 3-month T-bill data via Yahoo Finance).

How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.