Gold Closes Up 1.8% at $3,946.74 as Oil Falls 7.6% on Iran Talks

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 2, 2026. For the overnight move and the morning’s levels, read the pre-market note.

Why is gold up today?

Our pre-market note had gold at $3,943.37 at 8:45 AM ET, after a 15-minute jump at 8:35 AM ET. It flagged Friday’s U.S.-session high of $3,970.89 as the level above. Gold tested it and failed.

1. Overnight and the 8:35 AM ET jump. Gold rose $67.72 by 8:45 AM ET, with oil falling each time. The state news agency ISNA reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian said the supreme leader “has granted the government some authority on dialogue.” The earliest timestamp we found for that report is 8:51 AM ET, after the jump started. It is the likely trigger, but we can’t confirm the timing.
2. The stock open. Gold rose $16.50 to $3,964.45 between 9:30 and 10:00 AM ET. Volume in the first 15 minutes was 4.3 times normal. Brent kept falling.
3. The 10:00 AM ET data. Gold fell $8.33 in the 15 minutes after the ISM report. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.015 point in the same bar.
4. The high. Gold climbed back to $3,970.31 at 11:30 AM ET as Brent fell below $105. It did not close a 15-minute bar above Friday’s high.
5. The afternoon slide. Gold fell $31 to $3,938.93 by 2:45 PM ET. In the same hours Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.3% and the dollar index rose about 0.1. Volume was normal, and we found no headline. Gold then held between $3,938 and $3,951 into the close.

It wasn’t rates. The 2-year Treasury yield ended 0.03 point higher, the Treasury said. Fed funds futures put December hike odds at 70%, down from 72% at Friday’s close.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

Three reports came out this morning. Factories grew faster than forecast, but price pressure eased.

ISM manufacturing

The Institute for Supply Management’s index rose to 55.5 from 54.5. Production rose to 59.0, the highest since November 2021. New orders were 55.5 and employment 52.4. ISM said the reading matches about 2.7% growth in the economy. Strong factories argue for a December hike. Gold fell $8.33 in the 15 minutes after the release.

ISM prices

The prices index fell to 75.2 from 77.9, below the 77.2 forecast. Factories are still paying sharply higher prices, but the pace eased. That leans the other way for the Fed.

S&P Global PMI

The final reading was 54.9, below the 56.0 flash. S&P Global said output prices rose at the fastest rate since September 2022. Its economist said that adds to the pressure on policymakers to raise rates further.

Construction spending

Spending fell 1.9% in September, the Census Bureau said, against a forecast rise of 0.4%. Home building fell 5.5%. August was revised up to about 2.0% from 0.9%.

Treasury bills

The 13-week bill sold at 4.040% with 2.88 bids for each dollar offered, and the 26-week at 4.150% with 2.89. The Treasury also cut its fourth-quarter borrowing estimate by $10 billion, to $618 billion.

What it adds up to: a mixed day for the Fed. December hike odds ended at 70%, down from 76% this morning; we did not capture them at the release. Next is JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, then Friday’s October jobs report.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 101.80, down 0.16% from Friday. It held between 101.56 and 101.81 in U.S. hours and rose slowly through the afternoon. Over the past two weeks gold is down 4.5% and the dollar 0.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.92% and the 30-year 5.29% at the close, both down 0.02 point from Friday. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 10-year at 4.91%, the 30-year at 5.28% and the 2-year at 4.59%. The 10-year real yield rose 0.02 point to 2.62%. The 10-year breakeven, the bond market’s inflation gauge, fell 0.05 point to 2.29% as oil fell. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.60%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Oil, Iran and the Gulf

Gold moved with oil overnight and at 8:35 AM ET. The afternoon headlines below came with no gold move at the time.

Oil

Brent crude for January settled at $104.77, down $8.66 (7.6%), and U.S. crude at $96.46, down 7.4%, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. Brent’s low was $103.28.

Talks

Iran’s government said “intensive” talks with the U.S. are under way and warned it is ready to fight again, Al Jazeera reported. Qatari mediators were heading to Tehran on Monday evening, Reuters said.

Vance

Vice President JD Vance told reporters at 4:45 PM ET, “We’ve certainly made some progress.” He said no deadline has been set for Iran. Metals had stopped trading for the day by then.

China

Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Iranian security official Ali Bagheri Kani in Beijing, and President Xi Jinping hosted Oman’s Sultan Haitham. Their joint statement urged the U.S. and Iran to restart talks and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, Al Jazeera and China Daily reported.

Qatar and Türkiye

The two foreign ministers discussed how “to de-escalate tensions” in a call, Qatar’s foreign ministry said at 2:07 PM ET.

Qeshm Island

The state news agency IRNA reported five explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island at about 4:06 PM ET. No cause was given. Gold fell $1.90 in the next 30 minutes.

After the midterms

Analyst Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy told Al Jazeera the risk of another U.S. attack “remains very real, particularly after the midterm elections.”

Stocks

The S&P 500 fell 0.51%, the Nasdaq 1.07% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index 3.4%. The Dow rose 0.41%. The VIX closed at 21.15, up 1.73.

Other central banks

Australia’s central bank decides at 10:30 PM ET tonight, and a hike to 4.85% is forecast. The Bank of England decides on Thursday.

Silver price today: up 3.1%, back below $51

Spot silver closed at $50.65, up $1.52 from Friday’s close of $49.13. Its high was $51.28 in the 8:30 AM ET bar. Its last 15-minute close above $51 was at 10:30 AM ET. It fell to $50.41 at 2:45 PM ET, in the same bar as gold’s afternoon low.

On the day silver rose 1.7 times as much as gold in percentage terms. The split came in New York. From 8:45 AM ET gold added 0.1%, while silver fell 0.9%. The gold/silver ratio rose from 77.15 in the morning to 78.16 at 2:45 PM ET and closed at 77.92. Silver mining shares lagged silver, while gold miners beat gold. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further, and on big days the ratio has mostly gone the other way. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 3 to Oct 30 (64 trading days):

The day as a whole followed the pattern: gold up 1.8% and the ratio down 1.0. The New York session broke it. Gold edged higher after 8:45 AM ET while the ratio rose 0.8.

Gold/silver ratio: where 77.9 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7 with gold at $4,165 and silver at $52.92. Silver’s run to its record followed. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Oct 30, 2025) the ratio was 82.9, with gold at $4,016 and silver at $48.43. To Friday’s close, gold futures were down 2.9% over the year and silver up 1.4%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 26.7% and silver 57.3%, to Friday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.1% on average. Silver fell 2.0% on average and the ratio rose on 19. On the 22 days the 2-year fell that much, gold rose 0.5% on average. Today is neither: the 2-year rose 0.03 point.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77.5 after weeks well below it four times (February 2003, October 2008, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower in three of the four. Four cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, gold’s up days have come with a falling ratio more often than not, and today fit on the day. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $79.05, larger than the $59 median day over the past month. It closed $24 below Friday’s U.S.-session high.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals have been in a bear reading since the end of October. Silver’s 12-month return turned positive today, so the model’s live reading for silver is now a correction: up over 12 months, down over one. It counts only if it holds to the Nov 30 month-end. Gold would need to rise about 5.4% to turn its 12-month return positive. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 70% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 4:58 PM ET. That is down from 72% at Friday’s close and 76% this morning. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 28%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 79% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

No Fed officials spoke on policy today. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee moderated a conference discussion, and we found no reported remarks on rates. The Fed’s survey of bank loan officers said banks tightened lending standards for small firms and for commercial real estate in the third quarter, and saw weaker loan demand. Minutes of the October meeting come out Nov 18. The next decision is December 9.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed about $71 higher than Friday and silver about $1.52 higher. Gold is still $24 below where it started Friday’s U.S. session, and $74 below Thursday’s close.

Your price

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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