Gold Price Today: Gold Rises 1.7% to $3,943 as Silver Tops $51 and Oil Falls

This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:45 AM ET on Nov 2, 2026. For Friday’s session, when gold fell $144.92 to $3,875.65, read the market close note.

Why is gold up today?

Gold rose in two bursts, and Brent crude fell during both. Rates did not help. Fed funds futures put the odds of a December 9 hike at 76%, up from 72% at Friday’s close. The 2-year Treasury yield is 0.01 point higher. The dollar index fell 0.38%, which accounts for about a quarter of gold’s gain by our measure.

1. Sunday reopen (6:00 PM ET). Gold opened $19 above Friday’s close. Brent fell 1.3% at its own open, Reuters reported, after weekend reports on U.S.-Iran talks.
2. Shanghai open (8:00 PM ET). Gold rose $12 to $3,914.20 in the 15 minutes after the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened. Volume was 4.6 times normal. Brent fell 56 cents in the same bar.
3. Asia, then London (12:30 to 3:15 AM ET). Gold reached $3,919.51 at 12:30 AM ET as the dollar slipped. It then fell $28 to $3,891.26 by 3:15 AM ET, into the London open, while the dollar kept falling.
4. A quiet morning (3:15 to 8:30 AM ET). Gold held between $3,891 and $3,910. It has closed every 15-minute bar above $3,900 since 6:00 AM ET.
5. The 8:35 AM ET jump. Gold rose $34.09 in the 8:30 AM ET bar, to $3,943.37, with a high of $3,949.73. Volume was 4.7 times normal, the heaviest since Friday’s open. Brent fell about $2.50 at the same time. The dollar and 2-year Treasury futures were flat. We found no headline timed to the jump.

Our read is short covering after Friday’s sell-off. The World Gold Council said this morning that recent selling was “driven by leveraged investors,” with COMEX managed-money positions down about 11 tonnes since mid-October. We can see the timing and the volume, not who bought.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

No U.S. data came out before this note. Three reports are due this morning.

ISM manufacturing (Institute for Supply Management): the index is forecast at 54.5, the same as September. The prices index matters more for the Fed. A reading near 77 would mean factories are still paying sharply higher prices, mostly for fuel. A higher number would add to the case for a December hike.

What it adds up to: today’s reports are about factories and building. The bigger test is Friday’s October jobs report, forecast at 63,000 after 29,000 in September.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index is 101.58, down 0.38% from Friday’s close. Its low was 101.43 at 4:00 AM ET. Over the past two weeks gold is down 4.8% and the dollar 0.3%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.92% and the 30-year 5.27%, down 0.01 and 0.04 point from Friday. The 2-year is 4.61%. Treasury’s Friday figures had the 10-year at 4.94% and the 30-year at 5.31%. The 10-year real yield was 2.60% on Friday, its lowest in 20 trading days, the Treasury said. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.60%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices keep moving through the morning. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Oil, Iran and the Gulf

Gold moved with oil at the reopen and at 8:35 AM ET. The other headlines below came with no gold move at the time.

Oil

Brent crude for January was $106.75 at 8:48 AM ET, down $6.66 (5.9%) from Friday’s settlement. U.S. crude was below $100. Reuters said Brent fell on hopes for the talks in Doha and no escalation over the weekend.

Talks

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said “the ball is now in the US’s court” at his Monday news conference, Al Jazeera reported. He said Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the U.S. lifts its naval blockade. Reuters said Iran’s team left Doha on Sunday with a draft still under discussion. Axios reported that Trump wants to give diplomacy more time.

Netanyahu and Trump

Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu pressed Trump in a Saturday call to resume strikes on Iran right after Tuesday’s midterm elections. The report said Trump wants more time for talks. The White House and Netanyahu’s office declined to comment. No wire service has confirmed it.

Trump

In a Sunday interview with Right Side Broadcasting Network, Trump said the war would end “very soon, one way or the other.”

Attacks

The UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported a vessel hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday afternoon. It reported a tanker hit by two projectiles 72 nautical miles east of Khafji, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday evening, with all crew accounted for. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed more tankers hit mines. Those claims are not confirmed.

China

Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged a political solution “in a spirit of reason and pragmatism” in a meeting with an Iranian security official, according to Beijing’s statement.

Gasoline

The AAA national average for regular was $4.17 a gallon on Monday, down from $4.22 a week earlier and below the record of $5.02 from June 2022. The Financial Times reported that the average price over Trump’s term is passing the Biden-term average of $3.46. The FT article is behind a paywall.

Other central banks

Australia’s central bank decides at 10:30 PM ET tonight, and a hike to 4.85% is forecast. The Bank of England decides on Thursday, with a hike to 4.00% forecast.

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were up 0.31% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.57% at 8:24 AM ET, after Friday’s chip-led fall. The VIX was 19.40.

Silver price today: up 4.0%, back above $51

Spot silver is $51.11, up $1.98 from Friday’s close of $49.13. It first closed a 15-minute bar above $50 at 8:00 PM ET Sunday, at the Shanghai open. It slipped back under $50 for two bars after 10:00 PM ET and has closed above it since. It closed above $51 in the 8:30 AM ET bar, where it reached $51.28. Its low was $49.34 at the Sunday open.

Silver rose 2.3 times as much as gold in percentage terms. Over the past 20 trading days it has moved about 1.8 times as much. The gold/silver ratio fell to 77.2 from 78.9 at Friday’s close. Shanghai silver rose less than New York’s overnight. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further, and on big days the ratio has mostly gone the other way. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 3 to Oct 30 (64 trading days):

This morning followed the pattern. The ratio was 78.5 at the Sunday open, 78.1 after the Shanghai open, between 77.4 and 77.6 through London and 77.2 after the 8:35 AM ET jump.

Gold/silver ratio: where 77.2 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7 with gold at $4,165 and silver at $52.92. Silver’s run to its record followed. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Oct 30, 2025) the ratio was 82.9, with gold at $4,016 and silver at $48.43. To Friday’s close, gold futures were down 2.9% over the year and silver up 1.4%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 26.7% and silver 57.3%, to Friday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.1% on average. Silver fell 2.0% on average and the ratio rose on 19. On the 21 days the 2-year fell that much, gold rose 0.7% on average. Today is neither: the 2-year is up 0.01 point.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77.5 after weeks well below it four times (February 2003, October 2008, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower in three of the four. Four cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, gold’s up days have come with a falling ratio more often than not, and this morning fit. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels we’re watching

Gold’s range since the reopen is $59, about the size of a typical full day over the past month. Gold is 0.7% below Friday’s U.S.-session high.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals turned to a bear reading at the end of October. Their 12-month and one-month returns, after cash returns, were both down as of Oct 30. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. Silver’s 12-month return is within 0.1% of turning up, so at today’s price the model’s live reading for silver would be a rebound. Gold would need to rise about 6.4% for the same.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 76% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 8:29 AM ET, up from 72% at Friday’s close. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 30%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 83% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

No Fed releases or speeches came out over the weekend. Friday’s hawkish remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are the latest. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee moderates a conference discussion at 11:15 AM ET. The Fed’s survey of bank loan officers comes out at 2:00 PM ET. The next decision is December 9.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold is about $68 higher than at Friday’s close, and silver about $1.98 higher. Both are still below where they started Friday’s U.S. session.

Your price

Gold moved $34 in 15 minutes this morning. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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