Gold Closes Up 1.7% at $4,140.69 as Oil Falls on an Iran Report

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 9, 2026. For Sunday night’s gains in Asia and China’s reserve data, see the pre-market note.

Why is gold up today?

Gold made its gain in two parts: overnight in Asia and late in the New York afternoon. Our pre-market note had gold at $4,119.48 at 8:45 AM ET. It flagged $4,100 below and the overnight high of $4,134.14 above. Gold held $4,100 by 59 cents and has closed above $4,134.14 since 3:00 PM ET.

1. Overnight. Gold rose $48.89 from Friday’s close by 8:45 AM ET, as the pre-market note set out. It gained at the Asian open as stock futures rose, and again in the European morning as Brent fell.
2. The morning slide. Gold reached $4,127.32 at 11:15 AM ET and fell $25.16 to $4,102.16 by 1:00 PM ET. Its low was $4,100.59 at 1:15 PM ET. Oil fell, stocks rose and the dollar and yields held flat, and we found no trigger. Most of the slide came on volume below the median.
3. The Iran report. Gold was $4,103.09 at 2:15 PM ET and $4,136.54 at 3:00 PM ET. The 15 minutes to 2:45 PM ET added $18.30 on tick volume more than three times the median. In the same half hour Brent fell from $93.57 to a low of $90.56, the dollar index eased from 101.82 to 101.69, and the 2-year yield fell from 4.57% to 4.55%.
4. The last leg up. Gold added $8.33 to $4,144.86 by 3:30 PM ET, with a high of $4,148.71, its highest since Oct 20. Brent rose $0.78 in that stretch, and we found no headline that would lift gold.
5. The close. President Trump’s remark to Reuters that the U.S. is “ready to go anytime we want” on strikes was out by about 3:20 PM ET. Gold made its high in that 15-minute bar and slipped $4.18 to $4,140.69 by the close.

It wasn’t easier Fed pricing. December hike odds and the 2-year yield both rose on the day. Falling oil, the softer dollar and the short-lived drop in short-term yields came together in the afternoon leg. Our read is that traders bought gold on the chance of an Iran deal. We can see the timing and the volume, not who bought.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Stocks rose on oil and a rebound in chips

The S&P 500 closed at 7,549.94, up 2.35%, the Nasdaq up 2.74% and the Dow up 2.15%. The Russell 2000 rose 3.15%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 6.85%, and the VIX fell 5.72 points to 19.92. Europe closed higher: the STOXX 600 rose 1.26% and Germany’s DAX 1.73%.

Reuters and AP credited oil’s fall and a rebound from last week’s AI sell-off. AMD rose 13.3% after Google Cloud chose its chips for a new system and Oppenheimer upgraded the stock. Nvidia fell 4.27% to $178.67, the only decliner in the chip index, on the board’s review involving its chief executive. Most of the S&P’s gain came before the Iran report, while gold was falling. Before 2:20 PM ET, gold and S&P 500 futures had almost no link in their five-minute moves. Gold miners rose 2.4% against gold on the day, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners 2.9% against silver.

Today’s economic data and what it means

There was no major U.S. data today. Wholesale inventories, the New York Fed’s consumer survey and a 3-year Treasury auction came out.

Wholesale inventories (Census Bureau)

Inventories rose 0.7% in September to $1,013.1 billion, revised up from a first reading of 0.6%. Sales rose 2.8%. Inventories were 1.21 times sales, against 1.34 a year earlier. It’s a low-impact report for the Fed. Gold futures fell about $5 in the five minutes after the release, which came as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee began speaking.

Consumer expectations (New York Fed)

Consumers expect inflation of 3.9% over one year, 3.3% over three years and 3.0% over five, all unchanged from September. The odds they give of higher unemployment a year from now rose 1.4 points to 45.3%. Expectations that high don’t argue against a hike. The job worry is the one counterweight. Gold futures rose about $6 in 15 minutes and lost it in the next 15.

3-year auction (Treasury)

The Treasury sold $58 billion at 4.627%, 0.005 point above the 4.622% when-issued yield. Bid-to-cover was 2.53. Indirect bidders took 55.5%, direct bidders 35.0% and dealers 9.5%. Gold futures rose about $2 in the 15 minutes after the sale.

What it adds up to: today’s data left the Fed picture where it was. December hike odds of 85% rest on Friday’s jobs report and on Fed speakers. The next big release is October consumer prices, due Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. The forecast is 0.3% on the month, 0.2% core. There will be no official 12-month rate, because the shutdown left no October 2025 index.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 101.66, down 0.60% from Friday. Its low of 101.64 came in the Iran-report leg, at about 2:45 PM ET. Most of the dollar’s fall was in place before New York opened. From 8:45 AM ET to the close, the dollar fell 0.21% and gold rose 0.51%. Over the past two weeks gold is up 3.3% and the dollar down 0.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.88% and the 30-year at 5.28%, up 0.02 and 0.01 point from Friday. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 2-year at 4.56%, up 0.05 point, the 10-year at 4.88%, up 0.02 point, and the 30-year at 5.26%, unchanged. The 10-year real yield rose 0.03 point to 2.66%, and the 10-year breakeven fell 0.01 point to 2.22%, its lowest in a month. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Iran, oil and world news

Brent crude ended near $92.17, down $5.61 (5.7%) from Friday, in our data. AP reported it settled at $92.57. U.S. crude settled at $86.85, down $3.98, Dow Jones reported. Brent’s low of $90.56 came in the 15 minutes to 2:45 PM ET.

• The Al Arabiya report: citing unnamed sources, it said the U.S. and Iran had agreed Iran can enrich uranium to 3.67% and that the Strait of Hormuz would open. It said talks were being arranged on the return of U.N. inspectors. Bloomberg said it couldn’t immediately verify the report, and that oil hit new lows on it before the 2:30 PM ET settlement. Gold futures rose about $16 in five minutes when fuller headlines came at about 2:40 PM ET.
• The response: neither government has confirmed the report. An unnamed Iranian diplomatic source denied it in Iranian media, saying no nuclear details have been discussed. About 5:16 PM ET, after the close, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X: “STOP manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks.” He didn’t name the report.
• Iran’s line: an unnamed Iranian official denied, through Fars, this morning’s report of a plan to reopen Hormuz in exchange for $8 billion in frozen funds. Tehran also denied that Vice President Vance would meet Rezaei in Doha. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said sending highly enriched uranium out of Iran is “off the table,” Mehr reported. We found no gold reaction tied to any of the three.
• Trump and Qatar: Trump met Qatar’s prime minister for 45 minutes at the White House, Axios reported. No deal was announced, and the White House issued no formal readout. Trump and Qatar’s prime minister both called the talks positive.
• Trump’s later remarks: on Truth Social he said he sees “positive momentum toward an end to this conflict,” and that new strikes are “quite unlikely,” with the blockade staying in place. In a White House briefing shortly before 5:00 PM ET, he said the war in Iran “militarily is effectively over,” AP reported. Gold held flat until the 5:00 PM ET close.
• Saudi pipeline: an attack caused a limited fire on the East-West pipeline in the Medina region, the Saudi energy ministry said at about 11:22 AM ET. Operations weren’t affected. Gold fell $12.68 in that 15-minute bar, and Brent also fell.
• Israel: Gadi Eisenkot and Avigdor Liberman agreed on a candidate for Knesset speaker and other disputed issues, ynetnews reported. Benjamin Netanyahu proposed a unity government, with himself as leader.
• A House push to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth didn’t move gold. Russia–U.S.–Ukraine talks are due Tuesday in Abu Dhabi. The World Gold Council’s only new item was its routine weekly markets note, and the Silver Institute had no new report.

Silver price today: up 2.87%, above $53

Spot silver closed at $53.44, up $1.49 from Friday’s close of $51.94. Its low was $51.55 at Sunday’s 6:00 PM ET reopen and its high $53.55 at about 2:30 PM ET. In New York, silver’s low was $52.46 at 9:30 AM ET. It rose $0.63 in the Iran-report leg.

From 8:45 AM ET silver rose 1.50% and gold 0.51%, so the ratio fell from 78.25 to 77.49. From 11:30 AM to 2:15 PM ET silver rose 0.24% while gold fell 0.28%, and the ratio fell from 78.12 to 77.71. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 11 to Nov 9 (64 trading days):

Today fit the pattern. Gold futures rose 1.83% and silver futures 3.19%, so the ratio fell 1.03. Silver held up late in the midday slide and rose more in the afternoon.

Gold/silver ratio: where 77.5 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high, before the past few weeks, was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Nov 6, 2025) the ratio was 83.5, with gold at $3,991.00 and silver at $47.79. To Friday’s close, gold futures were up 2.1% over the year and silver up 8.4%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 23.4% and silver 55.0%, to Friday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.1% on average, and the ratio rose on 19. Today the 2-year rose 0.05 point, and gold rose and the ratio fell, against that pattern.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77 after weeks well below it five times before this run (February 2003, October 2003, October 2008, July 2015, August 2021). Three months later it was lower each time. Five cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has fallen on most of gold’s big up days, and it did so today. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $94.32, from $4,054.40 to $4,148.71. That is 1.3 times the $72 median session since Sept 23. Gold closed $8.03 below its high and $40.10 above its New York low.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. At today’s futures price, gold’s live reading has moved to a correction, because its 12-month return, after cash returns, is now 0.2% above zero. A 0.2% fall would turn it back. Silver’s live reading is a correction too. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 85% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 5:00 PM ET. That is up from 81% at Friday’s close and about the same as this morning’s 86%. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 25%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 89% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in a speech that with “inflation stubbornly elevated, the appropriate direction of monetary policy is relatively straightforward.” He added that “it is wise to move policy with care.” Goolsbee said the Fed must come to terms with a “cost side and inflation side failure” in its mandate, Crain’s Chicago Business reported. He said employment and growth are “remarkably stable,” Seeking Alpha reported. Neither votes on policy this year. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman spoke on community banking, and we found no text.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed $70.10 higher than Friday and silver $1.49 higher. Our ask at the close was $4,145.10 for gold and $53.56 for silver.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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