Gold Closes Down 0.4% at $3,930.33 as Yields Rise and Oil Rebounds

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 3, 2026. For the overnight move after the Qeshm Island strike, read the pre-market note.

Why is gold down today?

Our pre-market note had gold at $3,964.06 at 8:45 AM ET, up $68 from its overnight low on Iran deal reports. It flagged Friday’s U.S.-session high of $3,970.89 as the level above. Gold traded through it by 47 cents and turned back.

1. The test of Friday’s high. Gold reached $3,971.36 in the 15 minutes to 9:00 AM ET and closed that bar at $3,960.84. Brent crude fell to $100.80 in the same bar on the unconfirmed report that the U.S. had approved a draft deal with Iran.
2. Iran pushes back. Gold fell $18.85 between 9:00 and 9:30 AM ET, to $3,941.99, as Brent rose about $3 to $103.75. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the U.S. response to Iran’s demands was “not convincing,” Bloomberg and Anadolu reported. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected talks based on “imposition and blackmail.” The dollar index and the 2-year yield rose only slightly in that half hour.
3. The 10:00 AM ET data. Gold fell $8.83 in the 15 minutes after the job openings report and $10.10 in the next 15, to $3,925.64. The 2-year yield rose 0.03 point in the first of those bars, to 4.64%. The dollar index rose 0.12%.
4. The afternoon. Gold drifted lower on light volume and reached $3,917.57 at 3:00 PM ET. It then rose $12.76 into the close. The 2-year yield ended at its high of the day.

The day ran the other way from the morning. Before 9:00 AM ET, deal hopes lowered oil and lifted gold. After it, oil rose back and gold fell. Brent was back near $104.40 late in the day, and the report of a U.S.-approved draft deal was still unconfirmed. Nothing in the election moved gold: polls had not closed by the metals close.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

Two reports came out at 10:00 AM ET, and both beat forecasts. Gold fell $18.93 in the next 30 minutes.

Job openings (JOLTS)

Employers had 7.52 million open jobs at the end of September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, up from a revised 7.19 million in August. The openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. Hires rose to 5.40 million and quits to 3.37 million, a quits rate of 2.1%. Layoffs fell to 1.64 million from 1.77 million. More openings and more quits point to a firmer job market. That makes a December hike easier for the Fed to justify. In the 15 minutes after the release gold fell $8.83 and the 2-year yield rose 0.03 point.

Factory orders

Orders for manufactured goods rose 1.8% in September to $677.2 billion, the Census Bureau said, above the 1.2% forecast. Durable goods orders were revised to a 1.9% rise from 1.8%. Shipments rose 1.3%.

Treasury bills

The 6-week bill sold at 3.940% with 2.88 bids for each dollar offered, TreasuryDirect said.

What it adds up to: both reports argue for a December hike. Fed funds futures put the odds at 84% at the close, up from 78% this morning; we did not capture them at the release. Next is ADP and the ISM services index on Wednesday, then Friday’s October jobs report.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 101.86, up 0.06% from Monday. It rose 0.15% from 8:30 AM ET, with most of the gain around the 10:00 AM ET data. Over the past two weeks gold is down 4.5% and the dollar up 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.97% and the 30-year 5.33% at the close, up 0.05 and 0.04 point from Monday. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 10-year at 4.95%, the 30-year at 5.32% and the 2-year at 4.61%. The 10-year real yield rose 0.03 point to 2.65%. The 10-year breakeven rose 0.01 point to 2.30%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.60%. The next survey is out Thursday.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Oil, Iran and the election

Oil drove gold in the morning, in both directions. No headline after 10:30 AM ET moved gold more than $10.

The deal report

A market news feed reported at about 8:28 AM ET that the U.S. had approved a draft memorandum presented by Qatar’s mediators. Anadolu repeated it at 10:12 AM ET, citing anonymous sources. No U.S., Qatari or Iranian official confirmed it. Gold futures rose $24 in five minutes on the first report and fell $6 in 15 minutes after the second.

Iran’s reply

Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz reopens only when the U.S. meets Iran’s seven conditions. A spokesman for Iran’s delegation said “no new agreement” had been reached, state broadcaster IRIB reported at 10:18 AM ET. Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said “differences remain.”

Qeshm Island

President Trump confirmed the overnight strike on Fox News, calling it a “minor attack” on an anti-aircraft site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it had not hit oil flows.

Israel aid

Trump said U.S. aid to Israel, about $4 billion a year, “gets cut off” at the end of the year. Gold fell $15 in the next 30 minutes, inside the slide that started at 9:00 AM ET.

Oil

U.S. crude for January settled at $96.09, down 37 cents, Dow Jones reported. Brent’s low was $100.80 at 8:45 AM ET. It traded at $103.50 around the settlement and about $104.40 late in the day.

Midterms

Polls close in stages from 6:00 PM ET, and Alaska is last. AAA said the national average gasoline price is the highest on record for a congressional election day. Results come after the metals close, so today’s prices don’t reflect them.

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.36%, the Nasdaq 0.83% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index 2.63%. The Dow fell 0.38%. The VIX closed at 20.83, down 0.32. Gold fell while stocks rose.

Other central banks

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Canadian inflation is expected to rise to “about 3½% by year-end.” The Bank of England decides on Thursday, and a hike is forecast.

Silver price today: down 1.7%, back below $50

Spot silver closed at $49.80, down $0.85 from Monday’s close of $50.65. Its overnight low was $48.62 at 4:00 AM ET. In New York it reached $50.57 at 8:45 AM ET. Its last 15-minute close above $50 was at 10:00 AM ET. It fell to $49.38 at 3:00 PM ET, in the same bar as gold’s U.S. low.

From 8:30 AM ET silver fell 1.1% and gold 0.85%. The gold/silver ratio rose from 78.55 at 9:00 AM ET to 79.26 at 3:00 PM ET and closed at 78.92. Gold mining shares fell 1.3% against gold, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, while silver miners held level with silver. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 5 to Nov 3 (64 trading days):

Today fit the pattern. Gold futures fell 0.7%, silver futures 1.8%, and the futures ratio rose 0.84. In the spot market the ratio rose most in New York, as yields climbed.

Gold/silver ratio: where 78.9 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high, before last Friday, was Nov 25, 2025, when it closed at 81.3 with gold at $4,140 and silver at $50.93. Silver’s run to its record followed. A month later the ratio was 59.5, with silver up 50% and gold up 10%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Oct 31, 2025) the ratio was 83.3, with gold at $3,997 and silver at $47.99. To Monday’s close, gold futures were down 0.7% over the year and silver up 5.7%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 25.4% and silver 55.9%, to Monday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.1% on average. Silver fell 2.0% on average and the ratio rose on 19. Today fell short of that line: the 2-year rose 0.02 point, the Treasury said. Gold, silver and the ratio still moved the way they have on those days.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78.5 after weeks well below it five times before last week (February 2003, October 2008, July 2017, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower in four of the five. Five cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has risen on most of gold’s down days, and it did so today. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $75.79, larger than the $59 median day over the past month. It closed $35 above its overnight low and $41 below Friday’s U.S.-session high.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals have been in a bear reading since the end of October. Silver’s 12-month return slipped back below zero today, by 0.01%, so the model’s live reading for silver is a bear again after one day as a correction. Gold would need to rise about 5.3% to turn its 12-month return positive. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 84% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 4:59 PM ET. That is up from 70% at Monday’s close and 78% this morning. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 28%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 89% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

No Fed officials spoke on policy today, and none are scheduled tomorrow. Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Friday. In Ottawa, Macklem told lawmakers there “could be a need to raise the policy rate further.” Minutes of the Fed’s October meeting come out Nov 18. The next decision is December 9.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed $16 lower than Monday and silver 85 cents lower. Our ask at the close was $3,934.20 for gold and $49.93 for silver.

Your price

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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