Gold Price Today: Gold Rises 0.4% to $3,964 as Oil Falls on Iran Deal Reports

This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:45 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026. For Monday’s session, when gold closed up $71.10 at $3,946.74, read the market close note.

Why is gold up today?

Gold followed the Iran headlines through oil. When Brent rose overnight, gold fell. When Brent fell this morning, gold rose. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 0.03 point with oil, which helped. Fed hike odds did not fall, so this was not a rate move.

1. The Qeshm strike (7:40 PM ET Monday). Gold was $3,957 when the Journal’s report broke. It fell $8.60 in the next five minutes, and the 15-minute bar closed at $3,949.68. Brent rose $1.48 over the next half hour. Volume in the next bar was 2.6 times normal.
2. Asia (8:15 PM to 1:30 AM ET). Gold drifted $31 lower to $3,918.87 on normal volume. Australia’s central bank raised rates as forecast at 10:30 PM ET.
3. “Still out of reach” and the London open (1:45 to 4:15 AM ET). An Iranian official told Reuters at 1:58 AM ET that a deal was still out of reach. Brent hit $107.24 at 2:15 AM ET. Gold fell $13 into the London open, to the night’s low of $3,895.57 at 4:00 AM ET.
4. First talk headlines (7:15 AM ET). Iran’s president said the supreme leader had allowed talks on issues Iran had called non-negotiable. Reuters reported that mediators expect U.S. and Iranian answers within 36 hours. Gold rose $8 and Brent fell $1.44 in that bar.
5. A second step (7:45 AM ET). Gold rose $17.61 to $3,932.68 on heavy volume. We found no headline timed to it.
6. The deal-text report (8:25 AM ET). The First Squawk news service reported that the U.S. had approved a draft memorandum presented by Qatari mediators. No official or wire service has confirmed it. Gold rose $27 over two bars, to $3,964.06. Volume in the second bar was 5.4 times normal. Brent fell $3.52 and S&P 500 futures rose.

Our read is that the overnight selling and the morning buying were both oil trades. We can see the timing and the volume, not who traded.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

No U.S. data came out before this note. One report is due this morning.

JOLTS (Bureau of Labor Statistics): job openings are forecast at 7.15 million, up from 7.08 million. A higher number would point to a firm labor market. That would support the case for a December hike, which futures already price at about 78%.

What it adds up to: today’s data is light, and the election matters more. The bigger test is Friday’s October jobs report, forecast at 65,000 after 29,000 in September.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index is 101.72, down 0.07% from Monday’s close. It traded between 101.62 and 101.90 overnight. Over the past two weeks gold is down 4.3% and the dollar is up 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.90%, down 0.02 point from Monday. The 30-year is 5.28%, the same as Monday’s close. The 2-year is 4.57%, down 0.03 point. Treasury’s Monday figures had the 10-year at 4.91% and the 30-year at 5.28%. The 10-year real yield was 2.62% on Monday, up 0.02 point, the Treasury said. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.60%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices keep moving through the morning. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

The Qeshm strike, Iran talks and oil

Gold moved with oil at the strike report, at the 2:15 AM ET oil high and in the morning’s talk headlines. The Hormuz and Qatar items below came with no gold move at the time.

The strike

U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal, CNN, the Associated Press and Reuters that the U.S. carried out “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, after Iran fired at a U.S. aircraft. Axios reported that a fighter jet destroyed a surface-to-air missile launcher. No casualties were reported. The Pentagon and Central Command made no statement. The Financial Times ran the story as “US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island on eve of election”; its article is behind a paywall.

Monday’s explosions

Iran’s IRNA news agency reported five explosions on Qeshm at 4:06 PM ET Monday, with no cause given. The officials’ account matches them.

Iran’s response

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran reserves the right to defend itself. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said any response would be “unpredictable,” Al Jazeera reported. No retaliation has been reported.

Talks

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman said at 6:33 AM ET that Qatar is working on an interim deal and sees progress. The First Squawk report on a U.S.-approved draft at 8:25 AM ET is unconfirmed.

Hormuz

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three tankers hit mines in the strait. U.S. and shipping officials have not confirmed it. An Indian sailor was killed in an attack on a ship off Oman.

Oil

Brent crude was $101.57 at 8:45 AM ET, down 3.1% from Monday’s settlement of $104.77. Its overnight high was $107.24.

Other central banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% from 4.60%, as forecast, on a 6–3 vote. The Bank of England decides on Thursday, with a hike to 4.00% forecast.

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were down 0.15% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.32% at 8:22 AM ET, before the deal-text report. The VIX was 21.43.

Election day

What’s at stake

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Democrats need three more seats to win the House and four for the Senate. Polls favor Democrats for the House, Reuters and Al Jazeera reported.

When results come

Polls start closing at 6:00 PM ET, and Alaska closes last at 1:00 AM ET. The Senate result may take days, NPR reported.

Iran

President Trump said he would not strike Iran before the vote. No report links the timing of Monday’s strike to the election.

World Gold Council: third-quarter demand

The World Gold Council published its Gold Demand Trends report for the third quarter at 3:00 AM ET. Gold had no measurable move at the time.

Central banks

They bought 321.2 tonnes in the quarter, up 42% from a year earlier. The People’s Bank of China added 63 tonnes and Poland 40; Russia sold 19.

Funds

Gold ETFs added 211.2 tonnes. Holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes after a record US$31bn of inflows in the quarter.

Coins, bars and jewelry

Bar and coin demand fell 19% to 267.8 tonnes, and jewelry 17% to 312.9 tonnes.

Outlook

The council cut its forecast for 2026 investment growth to 200 tonnes from 400. It expects central-bank buying for the year to at least match 2025.

Silver price today: down 0.6%, back above $50

Spot silver is $50.35, down $0.30 from Monday’s close of $50.65. It fell 4.0% to $48.62 at 4:00 AM ET, against gold’s 1.3%. It closed back above $50 in the 8:15 AM ET bar and reached $50.45 in the 8:30 AM ET bar. It is still below Monday’s close.

Silver rose 3.6% from its low, against gold’s 1.8%. The gold/silver ratio rose to 78.7 from 77.9 at Monday’s close, after closing at 80.06 at the low. Shanghai silver held up better than New York’s overnight. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 4 to Nov 2 (64 trading days):

Overnight fit the pattern on the way down: as gold fell 1.3%, the ratio rose from 77.9 to 80.06. The morning broke it. Gold rose and silver lagged, so the ratio stayed near 78.7 instead of falling.

Gold/silver ratio: where 78.7 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high, before last Friday, was Nov 25, 2025, when it closed at 81.3 with gold at $4,140 and silver at $50.93. Silver’s run to its record followed. A month later the ratio was 59.5, with silver up 50% and gold up 10%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Oct 31, 2025) the ratio was 83.3, with gold at $3,997 and silver at $47.99. To Monday’s close, gold futures were down 0.7% over the year and silver up 5.7%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 25.4% and silver 55.9%, to Monday’s close.

Hawkish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.1% on average. Silver fell 2.0% on average and the ratio rose on 19. On the 22 days the 2-year fell that much, gold rose 0.5% on average. Today is neither: the 2-year is down 0.03 point.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78.5 after weeks well below it five times before last week (February 2003, October 2008, July 2017, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower in four of the five. Five cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has risen on most of gold’s down days, and it did so overnight. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels we’re watching

Gold’s range since the reopen is $72.76, more than a typical full day over the past month. Gold is $6.83 below Friday’s U.S.-session high.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Their 12-month and one-month returns, after cash returns, were both down. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. At Monday’s close the model’s live reading for silver was a correction, with its 12-month return 0.26% above zero. Gold would need to rise about 4.9% for its 12-month return to turn up.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 78% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 8:37 AM ET, up from 70% at Monday’s close. The reading was 71% nine minutes earlier; one tick in the futures price moves it that much. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 25%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 84% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

No Fed releases or speeches came out overnight, and none are scheduled today. Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Friday. The next decision is December 9.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold is about $17 above Monday’s close and silver about $0.30 below it. Overnight, gold traded in a $73 range.

Your price

Gold moved $27 in 30 minutes this morning on one news report. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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