Gold Closes Down 0.7% at $3,999.90 as Stop Orders Below $4,000 Hit for a Second Time
Gold broke $4,000 for the second time in 14 hours, this time just after 10:00 AM ET, and stop orders took spot to $3,975.65 in about 30 minutes before buyers pulled it back. It ended the week down 4.1%. Silver fell 1.2%. Brent crude rose 6% on the week while gold fell 4.1%, and December hike odds ended about where they were Thursday.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $3,999.90 an ounce (Ausecure’s ask at the 5:00 PM ET close), down $28.50 (0.7%) from Thursday’s close of $4,028.40 and down $32.70 from our 8:39 AM ET price of $4,032.60. Spot’s low was $3,975.65 at about 10:30 AM ET. For the week, gold fell $169.70 (4.1%) on our closing asks.
- Silver price today: $54.05, down $0.68 (1.2%) from Thursday and 4 cents below our 8:39 AM ET price. It fell 5.4% on the week. The gold/silver ratio ended near 74.1.
- Why it fell: just after 10:00 AM ET gold broke $4,000 and the overnight low of $3,986.73. Stop orders below those levels fired, futures volume jumped to about four times normal, and spot dropped $47 in 30 minutes while S&P 500 futures hit their low of the day. In those 30 minutes the dollar index stayed within a 0.07-point range and the 10-year Treasury yield within 0.01 point. Gold was back above $4,000 by 10:45 AM ET and traded between $3,991 and $4,006 for the rest of the day.
- Data today: the University of Michigan said one-year inflation expectations were 4.7% and long-run expectations 3.5%, both the highest since May; sentiment was 48.0 (forecast 46.3). S&P Global’s flash manufacturing index rose to 56.0 (forecast 55.4), a 53-month high.
- The Fed in December: fed funds futures imply about a 74% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting as of 5:07 PM ET. The odds of at least one hike by Dec 9 rose overnight with oil, to about 82% by 8:30 AM ET, then slipped back to about 76%, close to Thursday’s 77%. A week ago they were about 86%. For Oct 28 futures imply about an 8% chance of a hike.
- Oil: Brent crude settled at $116.72, its highest settlement since April 29, and rose 6.2% on the week. This week gold tended to fall in the same 15-minute periods that oil rose, including the overnight dip below $4,000. In New York trading today the two moved independently.
Why is gold down today?
Gold was at $4,032.60 on our ask at 8:39 AM ET, as we covered in our pre-market note. It had already dipped below $4,000 once overnight, to $3,986.73 at the Shanghai open, while Brent crude jumped, and bounced. Three things pushed it down in New York trading.
1. Stop orders below $4,000, again. Gold traded between $4,016 and $4,034 through the morning. At 10:00 AM ET it started to slide, and at about 10:15 AM ET it went through $4,000 and then the overnight low of $3,986.73. Those are levels where many traders keep sell orders, and they fired: futures volume rose to about four times normal in the 10:15 AM ET bar, and spot fell from $4,023 to $3,975.65 by about 10:30 AM ET, a $47 drop in 30 minutes. The dollar index held between 101.69 and 101.76 and the 10-year Treasury yield between 4.98% and 4.99% in those minutes, so the selling was in gold.
2. Selling across markets. S&P 500 futures fell to their low of the day, 7,648.50, in the same 15 minutes, and both rebounded together. After Thursday’s chip-stock sell-off, which Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage said triggered deleveraging among hedge funds (Reuters), this fits funds selling gold to raise cash or meet margin calls. We can see the timing in prices; we can’t see who sold.
3. Inflation expectations at the highest since May. The slide started within five minutes of the University of Michigan survey at 10:00 AM ET. The 10-year Treasury yield moved less than 0.01 point on it, so the survey did not change rate expectations; it gave the first push toward the sell orders under $4,000.
The rebound took 15 minutes. Spot was back at $4,000.90 by 10:45 AM ET and traded between $3,991 and $4,006 for the rest of the day, on volume mostly below normal after 1:00 PM ET. Our 5:00 PM ET ask closed at $3,999.90.
Data today: at 10:00 AM ET the University of Michigan’s final October survey showed consumer sentiment at 48.0, above the 46.3 forecast, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% (4.6% in September) and five-to-ten-year expectations at 3.5% (3.4%), both the highest since May. Gold fell $11 in the first ten minutes after the release; the 10-year yield moved less than 0.01 point. At 9:45 AM ET S&P Global’s flash survey put U.S. manufacturing at 56.0 (forecast 55.4), a 53-month high, and services at 57.9, matching the forecast; it said selling prices rose at the fastest rate since August 2022. Gold futures moved less than $1 in the ten minutes after the PMIs.
What happened in the war, and did gold react?
- Overnight: Saudi air defenses shot down Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait, according to the Saudi-led coalition. The Riyadh missile was intercepted shortly after 9:00 PM ET Thursday, the same hour gold fell from $4,031 to $3,986.73 and Brent rose about $1.40. That hour was also the Shanghai open, and the time the coalition’s statement first appeared is not confirmed, so we can’t tell whether traders were reacting to it.
- Before the open: U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told the Financial Times the U.S. is prepared for a long stand-off with Iran and can keep its blockade of Iranian ports “for the foreseeable future”. Gold held between $4,020 and $4,030 when it was first reported, around 5:30 AM ET.
- 8:30 AM ET: Iranian state TV said movement of “non-compliant” ships through the Strait of Hormuz had been halted. Gold moved about $1 in the next 15 minutes.
- 11:33 AM ET: President Trump, leaving the White House, said “the Hormuz Strait is ours”. Gold rose about $8 in the next half hour, back above $4,000.
- 1:44 PM ET: U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, asked whether there could be a strike on Iran this weekend, said “Absolutely”. Gold rose about $7, to $4,000.
- 3:45 PM ET: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two supertankers hit mines in Hormuz; no ships were named and the claim is unverified. Gold slipped about $3.
- Ukraine: President Zelensky said Ukrainian, Russian and U.S. negotiators will meet in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November. He spoke at 3:45 PM ET, the same minutes as the Revolutionary Guard claim, when gold slipped about $3.
In New York hours, each escalation headline lifted oil, and gold moved $8 or less on each one.
Did oil affect gold?
Yes, overnight and over the week, but not in today’s 10:00 AM ET drop. Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel, up 3.1% and its highest settlement since April 29, and U.S. crude settled at $103.27, according to CNBC. Brent rose 6.2% on the week.
- Overnight: gold’s drop from $4,031 to $3,986.73 between 9:00 and 10:15 PM ET came in the same minutes Brent jumped from $112.90 to $114.26. From Thursday’s close to 8:30 AM ET, gold and oil moved in opposite directions in about 6 of every 10 fifteen-minute periods.
- Over the week: in our 15-minute data, when Brent rose, gold fell in about 6 of every 10 periods; on average, a 1% rise in Brent came with about a 0.2% dip in gold. Brent rose about 6% and gold fell 4.1%.
- In New York today: the link broke. Brent reached $117.45 around 11:30 AM ET, with traders pricing new U.S. strikes on Iran (CNBC), and gold rose from $3,996 to $4,005 in that hour. During the 10:00 AM ET drop, Brent was flat at about $116.
How oil pushes gold down is less clear than the timing. One route is rates: higher oil means higher inflation and a Fed more likely to hike, and gold pays no interest. That worked overnight, when December hike odds rose with oil (see below), but over the week hike odds fell. The other route is selling across markets: the same war news that lifts oil hits stocks, and funds sell gold for cash. This week’s pattern fits the second route better.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
What did the dollar do?
The U.S. dollar index ended at 101.75, up 0.12% from Thursday, inside a 101.61 to 101.85 range all day. Gold measured against a basket of major currencies (gold × DXY) fell 0.75% since this morning, the same as in dollars, so the dollar did not cause today’s drop.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks
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What happened to Fed hike odds for December?
They rose overnight and gave it back in New York. Fed funds futures put the odds of at least one quarter-point hike by the Dec 9 meeting at about 77% at Thursday’s close. Overnight, as Brent climbed toward $115 and the 2-year Treasury yield rose about 0.06 point, they rose to about 82% by 8:30 AM ET. Through the New York session they slipped back, and at 5:07 PM ET they were about 76%. For the Dec 9 meeting itself, futures imply about a 74% chance of a hike (80% this morning, 76% Thursday).
Over the week the odds fell further: about 86% at last Friday’s close, about 92% on Monday, 89% on Wednesday, then 77% after Thursday’s sell-off. Gold fell 4.1% in the same week. Lower hike odds usually help gold, so rate expectations were not what drove gold lower this week.
These moves are small in price terms. The December futures contract moved 0.02 point from its high to its low today, so one or two price ticks change the odds by several points. For Oct 28, futures imply about a 92% chance of no change and 8% for a hike, up from 6% at Thursday’s close. Fed officials are in their quiet period before the Oct 27–28 meeting, and no Fed releases or speeches touched on policy today.
Yields, stocks and fund positions
- Yields: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.00% and the 30-year to 5.33%, each up 0.04 point from Thursday on Treasury’s daily curve, after Thursday’s drop. The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, was 2.66%, up from 2.64%, according to Treasury data.
- Mortgage rates: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 22), down from 7.40% a week earlier, and the 15-year averaged 6.68%. The next survey is out Thursday.
- Stocks: the S&P 500 closed down 0.52%, the Dow down 1.23% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.21%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 0.44% after Thursday’s 6.7% drop, and the VIX volatility index ended at 19.45.
- Mining shares: gold miners fell 1.2% against gold (GDX/GLD) and junior silver miners 0.9% against silver (SILJ/SLV), so mining shares again did worse than the metals.
- Fund positions: the CFTC’s weekly report, with data as of Tuesday Oct 20, showed money managers’ net long in COMEX gold at 104,206 contracts, down 2.7% on the week. In silver it fell 37.6% to 3,505 contracts as managers added shorts, a net long equal to about 3% of open interest. The report does not include Thursday’s or Friday’s selling.
Why did silver fall more than gold today?
Silver ended at $54.05 on our ask, down $0.68 (1.2%) from Thursday, against gold’s 0.7% drop. Almost all of silver’s loss came overnight: by our 8:39 AM ET price it was already down $0.64, while gold was up $4.20. Two moves did it. At the Shanghai open, between 9:00 and 10:15 PM ET, spot silver fell from $54.68 to $53.46 along with gold. Then, from 1:30 to 8:30 AM ET, silver slid from $54.41 to $53.85 while gold recovered to where it started. We found no silver-specific news in those hours.
In New York trading the order reversed. Silver fell 4 cents from our 8:39 AM ET price while gold fell $32.70. Silver went through the same 10:00 AM ET flush, from $54.08 to a low of $53.03 at about 10:15 AM ET, but held above $53.00 and was back near $54.00 within 45 minutes. Over the week silver fell 5.4%, more than gold’s 4.1%, and Thursday did most of the damage. Silver prices in Shanghai stayed well above New York’s, so Chinese buyers were not the sellers.
The gold/silver ratio ended near 74.1, which means an ounce of gold buys about 74.1 ounces of silver. That is down from 74.8 this morning, the highest in our data since late September, and up from 73.7 at Thursday’s close.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | What happened today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today’s high | $4,034.09 | $54.27 | Gold’s at 9:15 AM ET, before the flush; silver’s at 11:15 AM ET, in the rebound. Neither was retested |
| Round number | $4,000.00 | $54.00 | Gold closed 18 of 33 fifteen-minute bars below it since 8:45 AM ET, including the last one; silver closed above $54 for most of the late morning and early afternoon and ended just below |
| Overnight low | $3,986.73 | $53.46 | Set at the Shanghai open; gold closed one 15-minute bar below it at 10:15 AM ET and reclaimed it the next bar; silver broke its overnight low in the same minutes |
| Today’s low | $3,975.65 | $53.03 | Gold’s at about 10:30 AM ET, silver’s at about 10:15 AM ET; neither has been retested |
| Next round number | $3,950.00 | $53.00 | Not reached; silver held above $53.00 all day; prices often pause near round numbers |
Gold covered about $58 from high to low since Thursday evening, about the same as a typical day in recent weeks ($59). Our 5:00 PM ET closing ask of $3,999.90 is the first below $4,000 in these notes.
Trend check: On our monthly trend model, gold and silver both ended September in a correction: the 12-month trend was still up (gold +4.2%, silver +25.3% after cash returns) while September itself fell. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a correction month 60% of the time; history, not a forecast. With five trading days left in October, gold’s trailing 12-month return is −4.9% after cash returns: if October ended at today’s level, the model would read bear for gold, and gold would need to rise about 5.2% by Oct 30 to avoid that. Silver’s 12-month trend is still up.
What’s next: the weekend and next week
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What today means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold ended the week at $3,999.90 after falling $169.70, and it crossed $4,000 nine times in 15-minute closes today. For buyers of coins and bars, the practical questions are what you pay over spot and when your price is set:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so an order placed at 10:00 AM ET today and one placed at 10:30 AM ET could be priced about $45 an ounce apart in gold.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products show their “% over spot” under the price, so a coin and a bar can be compared on equal terms. With the ratio near 74, an ounce of gold buys about 74 ounces of silver.
- Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
- Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
- Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Gold closed Oct 23, 2026 at $3,999.90 an ounce on Ausecure’s ask at 5:00 PM ET, down $28.50 (0.7%) from Thursday’s $4,028.40 and down $169.70 (4.1%) from the previous Friday’s close of $4,169.60. Spot’s low today was $3,975.65 at about 10:30 AM ET.
Why did gold drop below $4,000 today?
Just after 10:00 AM ET gold broke $4,000 and the overnight low of $3,986.73, and stop orders below those levels fired. Futures volume jumped to about four times normal and spot fell $47 in 30 minutes, while S&P 500 futures hit their low of the day. The slide began minutes after the University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations at the highest since May. The dollar index and the 10-year yield stayed in narrow ranges. Gold was back above $4,000 by 10:45 AM ET.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December?
As of 5:07 PM ET, fed funds futures imply about a 74% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec 9 meeting and about 76% odds of at least one hike by then. They rose to about 82% overnight as oil climbed, then fell back to about Thursday’s 77% in New York trading. A week ago they were about 86%. For the Oct 28 meeting futures imply about an 8% chance of a hike.
Did oil at $117 move gold today?
Overnight, yes: gold’s drop to $3,986.73 at the Shanghai open came as Brent jumped about $1.40, and this week gold tended to fall when oil rose. In New York trading the link broke. Brent reached $117.45 around 11:30 AM ET and settled at $116.72, its highest settlement since April 29, while gold rose about $8 in that hour. The 10:00 AM ET drop came with Brent flat, and stop orders below $4,000 drove it.
Is gold below $4,000 a good time to buy?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Today gold crossed $4,000 nine times in 15-minute closes; the drop took 30 minutes and the rebound 15. Some buyers wait for the market to settle; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time it, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:15 PM ET on Oct 23, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure live prices (closing ask); University of Michigan (Surveys of Consumers); S&P Global (flash U.S. PMI); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves and real yield curves); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commitments of Traders); CNBC (oil settlements); Saudi-led coalition statements via Arab News and Saudi Gazette; Reuters (Goldman Sachs prime brokerage note); Financial Times (Waltz interview); CBS News (Trump and Barrack remarks); Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps statement via Iran International (unverified claim); Kyiv Independent (Zelensky); Federal Reserve; index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); OANDA, TVC (incl. Brent), COMEX and BATS data via TradingView; Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX gold and silver futures and 3-month T-bill data via Yahoo Finance).
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
