Gold Price Today: Gold Slips 0.2% to $4,054 as Oil Climbs Before the Fed Decision
Gold fell $42 overnight, from $4,070.84 to $4,028.19, as Brent crude rose about $1.50 after a Houthi claim of a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery. Buyers returned at the London open and lifted it back to $4,054, $6 below Tuesday’s close. Silver is down 0.4% at $54.19. The Fed decides at 2:00 PM ET.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:44 AM ET on Oct 28, 2026. For how gold broke above $4,034 on Tuesday, read the market close note.
The short version
- Gold price today: spot gold is $4,053.88 an ounce at 8:44 AM ET, down $6.45 (0.16%) from Tuesday’s 5:00 PM ET close of $4,060.33. It is $111.54 (2.7%) below its Oct 16 close.
- The overnight round trip: gold slid from $4,070.84 at 8:00 PM ET to $4,028.19 at 2:30 AM ET as oil and short-term Treasury yields rose. From the London open at 3:00 AM ET it climbed back $28 in 90 minutes, then another $11 just before the U.S. data.
- Silver price today: spot silver is $54.19, down $0.23 (0.42%). It fell with gold overnight but did not join the London rally, setting its low of $53.63 at 6:15 AM ET. The gold/silver ratio is 74.8.
- Data: the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September from $132.1 billion, the Census Bureau said at 8:30 AM ET, against a forecast of $130.4 billion. Gold futures fell $1.80 in the next five minutes.
- Fed: fed funds futures put the odds of a rate hike at today’s 2:00 PM ET decision at about 9%, unchanged from Tuesday’s close, and the odds of a hike on Dec 9 at about 85%, up from about 83%.
Why is gold down today?
Gold is slightly lower because it gave back $42 overnight while oil rose, and then won most of it back in the London and early New York morning. The dollar did not drive it: the U.S. Dollar Index is 0.05% lower than at Tuesday’s close.
- A slide as oil rose (8:00 to 10:15 PM ET). Gold peaked at $4,070.84 at 8:00 PM ET. At 9:00 PM ET, Brent crude jumped $0.75 in five minutes and kept rising, about $1.50 in all by 10:10 PM ET, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose about 0.02 point. Gold futures had their heaviest five minutes of the evening in that bar, and spot gold fell $22 to $4,045 by 10:15 PM ET. Reuters linked oil’s rise to a claim by Yemen’s Houthis that they had hit Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery with a missile; Saudi authorities had not confirmed it. Higher oil raises inflation risk, and futures now price a December Fed hike at about 85%, up from about 83% at Tuesday’s close.
- Slow selling in Asian hours (10:15 PM to 2:30 AM ET). Gold drifted down another $17 to $4,028.19 on below-normal volume, as the dollar edged up. We found no headline behind this leg. Gold closed six 15-minute bars below Friday’s high of $4,034.09, the level it broke through on Tuesday, between 1:15 and 2:45 AM ET.
- A $28 rebound from the London open (3:00 to 4:30 AM ET). Buying picked up as London opened. The dollar eased, the 2-year yield fell back about 0.015 point, and at 3:55 AM ET Brent dropped $0.78 in five minutes while gold futures rose $5. Gold reached $4,056 by 4:30 AM ET. We could not match the oil drop to a headline.
- More buying before the data. Gold traded between $4,044 and $4,058 until 8:00 AM ET, then rose $11 by 8:25 AM ET on the heaviest futures volume since the evening, as the dollar slipped. The trade report at 8:30 AM ET moved it about $2.
The Houthi claim was made on Tuesday, and gold did not react when it first crossed. The oil market moved on it overnight, after Brent fell $1.33 on Tuesday. Stocks are calm: S&P 500 futures were up 0.24% at 8:32 AM ET and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, was 17.4.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
Today’s economic data and what it means
The U.S. released three reports at 8:30 AM ET, and two foreign releases came out overnight. Gold moved about $2 on the U.S. reports.
| Report | Forecast | Actual | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goods trade gap | −130.4 | −134.9 | September, 8:30 AM ET, in $ billions. Wider than forecast; August was −132.1 |
| Wholesale stocks | +0.5% | +0.6% | September inventories, 8:30 AM ET. Slightly above forecast; up 7.4% from a year earlier |
| Retail stocks | n/a | +0.3% | September inventories, 8:30 AM ET. Same pace as August’s revised +0.3% |
| Australia CPI | 4.2% | 4.3% | September, from a year earlier, 8:30 PM ET Tuesday. Hotter than forecast |
| NZ rate | 3.00% | 2.75% | Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 9:00 PM ET Tuesday. A surprise hold |
Goods trade (U.S. Census Bureau): the deficit in goods trade widened by $2.8 billion to $134.9 billion in September, about $4.5 billion more than forecast. Exports rose $5.3 billion to $209.2 billion and imports rose $8.1 billion to $344.1 billion. A wider gap subtracts from growth, so it is a small negative for Thursday’s first estimate of third-quarter GDP. Gold futures dipped $1.80 in the five minutes after the release.
Inventories (U.S. Census Bureau): wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in September and retail inventories 0.3%. Inventories also feed into GDP. Neither moved gold.
Overnight, abroad: Australia’s consumer prices rose 4.3% in the year to September, up from 4.0%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said; gold did not move on it. Thirty minutes later the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its cash rate at 2.75% when a hike had been expected, and the New Zealand dollar fell. Oil’s jump came in the same five minutes, so we can’t separate the two in gold’s price.
What it adds up to: a wider trade gap trims third-quarter growth a little, and inventories add to it; gold moved about $2. Rate expectations moved overnight on oil instead, with December hike odds up about 2 points. Thursday brings the bigger tests: third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, at 8:30 AM ET.
How much was the dollar?
The dollar did not drive gold’s move. The U.S. Dollar Index is 102.33, down 0.05% from Tuesday’s close, after touching 102.49 in the early hours. Measured over the night, the dollar’s moves should have added about 0.1% to gold; gold fell 0.16%. Over the past two weeks gold is down about 1.1% and the dollar about 0.4%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.99% and the 30-year is 5.30%, both within 0.015 point of Tuesday’s close, while the 2-year is 4.75%. Treasury’s Tuesday figures had the 10-year at 4.99% and the 30-year at 5.30%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 22), down 0.08 point from a week earlier, and the 15-year was 6.68%. The next survey is Thursday.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks
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The Iran war, oil and the other news this morning
- Saudi refinery claim: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had hit Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, a 550,000-barrel-a-day plant, with a missile, Reuters reported; Saudi authorities had not confirmed it. Gold did not react when the claim first crossed on Tuesday morning. Oil traded it overnight: Brent for January delivery rose about $1.50 from 9:00 PM ET and is about $111.4, up 1.4% from Tuesday afternoon, and gold fell $22 in the same stretch.
- Shipping through the Gulf: Iran’s strait authority said on Tuesday that all vessels of South Korea’s Sinokor will face “legal action” from Nov 1, Reuters reported. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that the flow of refined products through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. Neither moved gold.
- Diplomacy: on Tuesday Iran’s president met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and China said it would send an envoy to the region. Brent fell $1.33 on the day, most sharply between 10:20 and 10:35 AM ET, and gold rose 1.1%. Overnight brought no new diplomatic headline we could match to a gold move.
- How gold has traded the war this week: against oil. Gold fell when Brent rose, in Tuesday’s London morning and again overnight, and rose when Brent fell in New York on Tuesday. The link runs through rates: overnight, higher oil came with a higher 2-year yield and December hike odds up about 2 points.
- Israel’s election: with votes still being counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was level with or slightly ahead of Gadi Eisenkot’s, but neither is near the 61 seats needed for a majority, CNN reported. Final results are expected late Wednesday or early Thursday. We found no gold reaction to the overnight count.
- The dollar and the UK budget: the dollar held near a two-week high before the Fed, and the pound slipped about 0.2% to $1.328 ahead of Britain’s budget, Reuters reported. The New Zealand dollar fell as much as 1.4% after its central bank’s surprise hold.
- China: Beijing’s state-backed funds and brokers have been buying stocks to steady markets as investors turn away from AI shares, the Financial Times reported. Shanghai stocks rose 0.9% today after falling 1.3% on Tuesday. We saw no matching move in gold during Asian hours.
- Ukraine: President Zelensky said on Oct 27 that Moscow wants a separate deal with NATO or the U.S. that it calls “security guarantees” for Russia, and that such talks should come after the war ends, the Kyiv Independent reported. No gold reaction found.
Silver price today: down 0.4%, low at $53.63
Spot silver is $54.19, down $0.23 from Tuesday’s close of $54.42. It fell with gold in the evening, from $54.54 at 8:00 PM ET to below $54 by 10:45 PM ET, and stayed under $54 for most of the night. When gold rallied from the London open, silver did not follow: the ratio kept rising, and silver set its low of $53.63 at 6:15 AM ET while gold held above $4,046. Silver has been back above $54 since 8:15 AM ET, rising about $0.55 from its low with gold’s pre-data move.
The gold/silver ratio (how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys) is 74.8, up from 74.6 at Tuesday’s close. It reached 75.40 at 6:15 AM ET. Silver is 4.9% below its Oct 16 close of $56.97, against gold’s 2.7%.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days
Using daily COMEX futures closes for the 90 days from July 29 to Oct 27 (63 trading days), here is how the ratio behaves when gold moves:
- Silver moves with gold, but further. Daily gold and silver moves had a correlation of 0.82, and silver’s daily move was about 1.4 times gold’s. Over the past 20 trading days it has been about 1.8 times.
- The ratio usually moves against gold. On the 24 days when gold moved more than 1%, the ratio went the other way on 19. Gold rose more than 1% on 10 days, and the ratio fell on 7 of them; gold fell more than 1% on 14 days, and the ratio rose on 12.
- Lately, silver has lagged on the way up. In the past month the ratio rose by about 0.47 on an average day when gold fell, and fell by only 0.04 on an average day when gold rose.
- Overnight followed the recent pattern. As gold fell $42 in the evening, the ratio rose from 74.6 to 74.9. During gold’s $28 London rally the ratio still rose, to 75.0, and it reached 75.40 at 6:15 AM ET. From 8:00 AM ET silver caught up, and the ratio eased to 74.8.
- Where it sits: Tuesday’s futures close of 75.05 was the highest in the 90 days. The low was 65.65 on Sep 9 and the middle value 68.5.
| Ratio level | Ratio | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Monday overnight high | 75.86 | Made at 2:30 AM ET Tuesday as silver hit $52.67; the highest in our 15-minute data, which starts Sep 23 |
| Overnight high | 75.40 | Made at 6:15 AM ET today, at silver’s low |
| Round number | 75.0 | Crossed both ways overnight; the ratio is just below it now |
| Tuesday’s close | 74.62 | Where today’s move started |
| Overnight low | 74.55 | Made at 7:30 PM ET Tuesday, before gold’s slide |
| Oct 22 close | 73.72 | After the day silver fell twice as much as gold |
| 90-day middle | 68.5 | Median of daily futures closes since July 29 |
In past data, a rise in gold has usually come with silver doing better and the ratio falling, and a drop in gold with silver doing worse. The past month has been tilted against silver on both kinds of day. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast; today’s Fed decision can move both metals.
Gold and silver price levels we’re watching
| Level | Gold | Silver | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round number | $4,100 | $55.00 | Neither has traded there since the sell-off on Oct 22 |
| Overnight high | $4,070.84 | $54.54 | Both made at 8:00 PM ET Tuesday, before oil rose. Gold’s is above Tuesday’s New York high of $4,065.70 |
| Round number | $4,050 | $54.00 | Gold has closed above $4,050 since 8:00 AM ET; silver above $54 since 8:15 AM ET |
| Friday’s high | $4,034.09 | $54.27 | Gold’s breakout level from Tuesday; it dipped below for six 15-minute closes overnight, then recovered. Silver is just under its Friday high |
| Overnight low | $4,028.19 | $53.63 | Gold’s at 2:30 AM ET, silver’s at 6:15 AM ET |
| Round number | $4,000 | $53.00 | Not tested overnight. Silver last traded below $53 early Tuesday |
Gold’s overnight range was about $43, smaller than the typical day of about $58 over the past month.
Trend check: on our monthly trend model, both metals are in a correction: their 12-month trend, after cash returns, is still up and September was a down month (readings as of Sep 30). Since 2002, gold has risen in the month after a correction month about 60% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. With three trading days left in October, gold’s live reading is weaker: if the month ended at this level, the model would read bear for gold, and gold futures would need to rise about 2.5% by Oct 30 to avoid that. Silver’s live reading is still a correction.
What the Fed is expected to do today
The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET (1:00 PM CT), and Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Fed funds futures imply about 9% odds of a quarter-point hike today and about 91% that it holds at 3.75%–4.00%, as of 8:32 AM ET, unchanged from Tuesday’s close. For the December 9 meeting, futures price a quarter-point hike at about 85%, up from about 83% at Tuesday’s close, and the odds of at least one hike by then at about 86%.
The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, was 2.64% at Tuesday’s close, down 0.02 point on the day and at the bottom of its range over the past month, according to the U.S. Treasury. No Fed releases or speeches came out overnight; officials are in their quiet period until the decision. Our chairman Peter Thomas will discuss the decision on Asharq Bloomberg at 3:20 PM ET.
Futures price a hold at about 91%, so what can move gold is the language around it: how the Fed describes inflation and the economy, whether it leaves the door open to more hikes, and how Chair Warsh answers questions afterward. Here is what we will be listening for, and how we will measure the market’s reading:
- A hike would be the surprise. Futures put it at about 9%.
- The statement’s tone on inflation. Inflation is above the Fed’s goal and oil is near $111. Wording that stresses upside inflation risk, or keeps signaling that more tightening may be needed, would read as hawkish. Wording that leans on slower growth or softer hiring would read as dovish.
- December. Futures price a December 9 hike at about 85%. Whether the statement and the press conference treat December as live is the main question. We will compare that number after the statement and after the press conference with 85% now.
- Dissents. Reuters reported that some regional Fed presidents could dissent in favor of a hike. Dissents toward a hike would add to the hawkish read; a unanimous hold would soften it.
- The economy and the war. How the Fed describes growth, jobs and the effect of higher energy prices from the war with Iran. Questions on oil are likely in the press conference.
- How we will judge the reaction. The yardsticks this morning: the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.75%, the dollar index at 102.33, December hike odds at 85% and gold at $4,054. In recent weeks gold has tended to fall when the 2-year yield and the dollar rise, as it did overnight when oil pushed hike odds higher. Our Market Close note will compare the statement and Chair Warsh’s answers with these numbers.
Economic calendar: what’s next for gold
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What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold is back above $4,050 after a $42 overnight dip, and silver is a little cheaper than at Tuesday’s close. The Fed decides this afternoon, and gold moved $42 overnight before any Fed news, so prices can move quickly today. A few practical points:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market. Around a Fed decision, the price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $4,053.88 an ounce at 8:44 AM ET on Oct 28, 2026, down $6.45 (0.16%) from Tuesday’s 5:00 PM ET close of $4,060.33. Overnight it traded between $4,028.19 and $4,070.84. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.
Why did gold fall overnight?
Gold fell $42 from 8:00 PM ET to 2:30 AM ET. The first $22 came as Brent crude rose about $1.50 after a Houthi claim of a missile strike on a Saudi refinery and the 2-year Treasury yield rose; the rest was slow selling in Asian hours with no clear trigger. Gold won back $39 from the London open, so it is down only $6 from Tuesday’s close.
Why is silver down more than gold?
Silver fell with gold in the evening but did not join gold’s rally from the London open. It set its low of $53.63 at 6:15 AM ET while gold held above $4,046, so the gold/silver ratio rose to 75.40 before easing to 74.8. Over the past month silver has lagged gold on up days as well as down days.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike today?
As of 8:32 AM ET, fed funds futures put the odds of a quarter-point hike today at about 9%, unchanged from Tuesday’s close. A December 9 hike is priced at about 85%, up from about 83%. The decision is due at 2:00 PM ET.
Should I wait until after the Fed decision to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term moves. Gold moved $42 overnight without any Fed news, and the decision at 2:00 PM ET could move it either way. Some buyers wait for the announcement; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 8:44 AM ET on Oct 28, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: OANDA spot gold and silver, TVC dollar index, Treasury yields and Brent crude via TradingView; U.S. Census Bureau (advance economic indicators report, Sep 2026); Australian Bureau of Statistics (Consumer Price Index, Sep 2026); Reserve Bank of New Zealand (OCR decision, Oct 28, 2026); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); Reuters (oil and Houthi refinery claim, via CNBC; dollar and UK budget; Fed preview; Sinokor); CNN (Israel election count); Financial Times (China market support); Kyiv Independent (Zelensky remarks, Oct 27); COMEX gold, silver and Brent futures and index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Federal Reserve Board calendar; Forex Factory economic calendar; Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX front-month futures and T-bill rates via Yahoo Finance).
How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
