Market CloseNº 45·5Friday, Nov 6, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
Gold Closes Down 0.4% at $4,070.59 as Strong Jobs Data Lifts Fed Hike Odds to 81%
The October jobs report set the day. Employers added 165,000 jobs, gold fell $30 to $4,029.83, and December hike odds rose to 81% from 69%. Gold won back $41 as stocks bounced. Silver rose 0.3% to $51.94.
By the Ausecure Trading Desk · 7 min read
Gold
$4,070.59
−0.43% from $4,088.28 Thursday
+5.0% from $3,875.65 Oct 30 close
+5.0% from $3,875.65 Oct 30 close
−5.2% from $4,341.10 Dec 31, futures
Silver
$51.94
+0.30% from $51.79 Thursday
+5.7% from $49.13 Oct 30 close
+5.7% from $49.13 Oct 30 close
−25.5% from $70.13 Dec 31, futures
Fed odds from fed funds futures (our calculation); next Fed decision Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET. The YTD tab uses COMEX futures daily closes. For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 6, 2026. For the overnight chip sell-off in Asia and the first read of the jobs report, see the pre-market note.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $4,070.59 an ounce at the 5:00 PM ET close, down $17.69 (0.43%) from Thursday’s $4,088.28.
- The jobs report moved the market: employers added 165,000 jobs in October, against a 65,000 forecast. Gold fell $30 in the next hour, to $4,029.83 at 9:30 AM ET, as the dollar hit its high of the day.
- The Fed: the report pushed December hike odds to 81% at the close, from 69% on Thursday, in fed funds futures. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.05 point to 4.51%.
- The rebound: gold won back $41 from the low as stocks bounced. It still closed lower, because it had already lost about $29 overnight in Asia.
- Silver price today: $51.94, up $0.16 (0.30%). The gold/silver ratio fell to 78.4 from 78.9.
- Data today: consumer sentiment rose to 51.0 from 48.0, and year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3% from 4.7%. Consumer credit jumped $27.8 billion in September.
Why is gold down today?
The jobs report drove gold in New York. It gave the session its biggest drop and lifted Fed hike odds by 12 points on the day. Our pre-market note had gold at $4,047.88 at 8:45 AM ET. It named a close below $4,032.92 as the level that would break the morning’s floor. Gold closed the 9:15 AM ET bar at $4,031.76, $1.16 below it, and won it back by 10:00 AM ET. It never got to the $4,081 London high that the note said would change the picture.
- Overnight, Asia. Gold lost about $52 while Japanese and Korean chip stocks sold off, as the pre-market note set out. That is most of the day’s loss.
- The jobs report. Gold was $4,059.63 when the report came out at 8:30 AM ET. By 9:30 AM ET it was $4,031.76, and it touched $4,029.83 minutes later. The dollar index rose to 102.36, its high of the day, and the 2-year yield held near 4.53%. Stock futures were flat, so this leg was rates and the dollar.
- The stock market open. Gold reached $4,029.83 at 9:30 AM ET and then rose $25 to $4,056.47 by 10:15 AM ET. In those 45 minutes S&P 500 futures rose 63 points, the VIX fell from 26.8 to 23.8 and the dollar index slipped to 102.13.
- Late morning to 2:00 PM ET. Gold climbed another $28 to $4,078.65 while stocks drifted. The 2-year yield eased to 4.49% at 12:45 PM ET and the dollar held near 102.2.
- The close. After COMEX futures settled at 1:30 PM ET, gold slipped $14 to $4,063.71 by 2:45 PM ET. It closed at $4,070.59.
On the day, the jobs report’s push on rates and the dollar weighed on gold. The dollar index ended up 0.68% and the 2-year yield up 0.05 point. The rebound came from the stock bounce at the open and the easier 2-year after it. Gold rose another $7 in the 15 minutes to 2:00 PM ET, when Brent jumped on Iran headlines.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
Stocks bounced, led by chips
The S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86, up 0.31%. The Nasdaq rose 1.09% and the Russell 2000 0.89%, while the Dow fell 0.46%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 4.21%, a day after a 12.25% drop. The VIX closed at 25.64, down 2.54 points. Europe closed lower: the STOXX 600 fell 1.00% and Germany’s DAX 1.92%.
Chip stocks opened higher after Thursday’s drop, and the index was up 5.9% at the open. AMD and Cloudflare had beaten forecasts on Thursday evening, and memory makers rose before the open. At 10:55 AM ET White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC that planned data centers aren’t affected by the new state ballot measures. The chip index faded from the open. Gold’s rebound came in the same 45 minutes as the stock market’s. Gold miners rose 3.0% against gold on the day, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners 3.5% against silver.
Today’s economic data and what it means
The jobs report came out before the pre-market note. The University of Michigan survey at 10:00 AM ET showed easing inflation worries, and consumer credit at 3:00 PM ET showed heavy card borrowing.
| Report | Forecast | Actual | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payrolls | 65K | 165K | October, 8:30 AM ET, BLS. Two-month revisions +84K |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | October, 8:30 AM ET, BLS |
| Hourly pay | +0.3% | +0.4% | October, average hourly earnings, BLS. Up 3.1% from a year earlier |
| Sentiment | 48.1 | 51.0 | November, first reading, 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan. October 48.0 |
| Inflation, 1-yr | n/a | 4.3% | Year-ahead inflation expected by consumers, University of Michigan. October 4.7% |
| Consumer credit | $13.4B | $27.8B | September, 3:00 PM ET, Federal Reserve. Mostly credit cards; August revised to $8.2B |
- Jobs (Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported)
- Payrolls rose 165,000 in October, against a 65,000 forecast. September was revised to 60,000 and August to 186,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and hourly pay rose 0.4% on the month. Gold futures fell $32 in the first minutes and won most of it back. Spot gold then slid $28 more by 9:30 AM ET as the dollar rose.
- Consumer sentiment (University of Michigan)
- The first November reading rose to 51.0 from 48.0 in October, against a 48.1 forecast. Current conditions rose to 51.0 and expectations to 50.9. Consumers expect 4.3% inflation over the next year, down from 4.7%, and 3.4% over five to 10 years, down from 3.5%. Survey director Joanne Hsu said 57% of consumers mentioned high prices unprompted, the most since May. Gold futures rose about $9 in the 10 minutes after the release.
- Consumer credit (Federal Reserve)
- Credit rose $27.8 billion in September, against a $13.4 billion forecast, a 6.4% annual rate. Credit cards made up $16.3 billion. August was revised to $8.2 billion. Gold held between $4,063 and $4,066 after the 3:00 PM ET release.
- Canada (Ivey PMI)
- The October index rose to 58.3, against 57.7 forecast. It had no visible effect on gold.
What it adds up to: strong hiring and faster pay pushed December hike odds to 81% at the close, from 72% after the report this morning and 69% on Thursday. Lower inflation expectations in the Michigan survey didn’t change that. The next big release is October consumer prices, due Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET.
How much was the dollar?
The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 102.28, up 0.68% from Thursday. It reached 102.36 at 9:15 AM ET, its high of the day, and then held between 102.10 and 102.33. In New York it ended near where it was at 8:45 AM ET, so the dollar didn’t drive gold’s rebound. Over the past two weeks gold is up 2.1% and the dollar 0.6%.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% and the 30-year at 5.27%, up 0.02 and 0.01 point from Thursday. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 2-year at 4.51%, up 0.05 point, the 10-year at 4.86% and the 30-year at 5.26%. The 10-year real yield rose 0.03 point to 2.63%, and the 10-year breakeven fell 0.01 point to 2.23%, its lowest in a month. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks
Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.
Oil, Iran and world news
Brent crude ended near $97.90, down 1.4% from Thursday. Brent settled near $97.76, down 0.5% from Thursday’s settlement, and is down about $20 on the week. It fell to $96.83 at 10:45 AM ET as reports of progress in U.S.–Iran talks spread, rose $1.20 from 1:50 PM ET, and eased after President Trump spoke at 3:15 PM ET. Gold rose $7 in the oil jump and held flat in the decline.
- Qeshm Island: Iranian state media IRNA reported at 4:55 PM ET that two projectiles hit the Susa area of Qeshm Island, and Tasnim repeated it at 5:07 PM ET. There were no official details by our cut-off. Gold rose about $5 in the last 15 minutes before the close.
- Trump on Iran: at about 3:15 PM ET he told reporters the U.S. is “talking to” Iran’s representatives and is “doing very well with Iran.” Axios later reported that he met his national security team and said a decision on Iran would come “soon” (headline; we didn’t read the article).
- Qatar: Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman said the U.S. and Iran should take a “good” deal, because “you can’t wait for that perfect moment,” Al Jazeera reported. Iran sent a new proposal through Qatar on Thursday.
- Tanker attack: the manager of the products tanker Velos said one seafarer was killed when two projectiles hit the ship off Qatar on Thursday. The attacker hasn’t been named.
- Sanctions: the U.S. Treasury put Iran-related sanctions on eight Canadian money-services firms.
- Ukraine: President Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia–U.S.–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi next Tuesday.
- Positioning: in the week to Tuesday, money managers’ net long in COMEX gold futures fell 1.8% to 103,614 contracts, the CFTC said. Their silver net long rose 21.5% to 4,035 contracts, a small base. The data predates the jobs report.
- Pete on X: Ausecure’s Peter Thomas talked metals live on X today, in a broadcast hosted by Quasar Markets.
- Other items didn’t move gold: an IRGC claim that it shot down a U.S. drone over Qeshm, a Houthi claim of strikes on two Saudi tankers, and Kazakhstan’s five-ton gold purchase.
Silver price today: up 0.3%, just under $52
Spot silver closed at $51.94, up $0.16 from Thursday’s close of $51.79. Its low was $51.19 at 1:00 AM ET and its high $52.38 at 8:15 AM ET. After the jobs report it fell to $51.37 at 9:15 AM ET. It rose to $52.23 at 1:45 PM ET and closed below $52.
From 8:45 AM ET gold rose 0.56% and silver fell 0.07%, so the ratio rose from 77.87 to 78.36. Over the whole day silver did better: it held up in Asia and London, as the pre-market note set out. We found no silver-specific news.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days
Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 10 to Nov 6 (64 trading days):
Gold/silver ratio, daily futures close
Biggest one-day risesBiggest one-day falls
- Aug 20Ratio −1.95 as gold rose 0.6% and silver rose 3.5%.
- Sep 9Ratio −1.31 to 65.65, the 90-day low, as gold rose 0.5% and silver rose 2.5%.
- Sep 10Ratio +2.91 as gold fell 1.2% and silver 5.4%.
- Oct 14Ratio +3.34, the biggest one-day rise, as gold fell 1.7% and silver 6.1%.
- Oct 22Ratio +1.87 as gold fell 2.2% and silver 4.6%.
- Oct 30Ratio +2.17 as gold fell 3.3% and silver 5.9%.
Each dot is one day in the 90 days. Across: gold’s change. Up: silver’s.
Black line: silver’s average move against gold’s over 90 days. Dashed: a move the same size as gold’s. 1 month: 1.7×. 1 year: 1.9×.
| Level | Ratio | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year high | 83.51 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| 1-month and 90-day high | 79.46 | Nov 3 |
| Today’s close | 78.49 | Nov 6 |
| 1-month low | 68.45 | Oct 6 |
| 90-day low | 65.65 | Sep 9 |
| 1-year low | 44.16 | Jan 26, the day of silver’s highest close in the year |
1 month: since the Oct 6 close. 90 days: since Aug 10. 1 year: since Nov 6, 2025. All to today’s close, from daily COMEX futures closes.
Today broke the pattern. Gold futures fell 0.82% and silver futures 0.50%, so the ratio fell 0.26 on a down day for gold. Silver held up overnight and in London, and gold made its loss there.
Gold/silver ratio: where 78.4 sits in the longer history
From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:
- The last time the ratio was this high
- The last time the ratio was this high, before the past two weeks, was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.
- A year ago
- A year ago (Nov 5, 2025) the ratio was 83.4, with gold at $3,992.90 and silver at $47.86. To Thursday’s close, gold futures were up 3.0% over the year and silver up 9.1%.
- Before gold’s record
- The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.
- Since the record
- Gold futures are down 22.7% and silver 54.6%, to Thursday’s close.
- Hawkish days
- Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, by 1.1% on average, and the ratio rose on 19. Today the 2-year rose 0.05 point. Gold fell, but the ratio fell too, against that pattern.
- Other jumps to this level
- Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78 after weeks well below it five times before this run (February 2003, October 2008, July 2017, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower each time. Five cases is a small sample.
| Ratio level | Ratio | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| A year ago | 83.4 | Nov 5, 2025 futures close |
| 90-day high | 79.46 | Tuesday’s futures close |
| Night high | 79.22 | 6:00 PM ET Thursday |
| Thu close | 78.94 | Spot, where today’s move started |
| Last this high | 78.7 | Nov 26, 2025, before silver’s run to $115 |
| Today’s close | 78.36 | 5:00 PM ET |
| Round number | 78.0 | Below it from 2:00 to 9:00 AM ET |
| This morning | 77.87 | 8:45 AM ET, in the pre-market note |
| Day’s low | 77.77 | 8:15 AM ET, before the jobs report |
| 90-day median | 68.5 | Daily futures closes since Aug 10 |
| At gold’s record | 46.6 | Jan 29, 2026, gold’s record close |
In the past 90 days, the ratio has risen on most of gold’s big down days. Today it fell on a down day, because silver held up while gold lost ground overnight. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day’s highs | $4,107.09 | $52.38 | Gold’s at 7:30 PM ET Thursday, silver’s at 8:15 AM ET. No close near since |
| Thu close | $4,088.28 | $51.79 | 5:00 PM ET Thursday. Gold is below it, silver above |
| London high | $4,081.22 | $52.23 | Gold’s at 4:15 AM ET. Its U.S. high stopped at $4,078.65. Silver’s is its U.S. high, 1:45 PM ET |
| Round number | $4,050 | $52.00 | Gold has closed above $4,050 since 10:30 AM ET. Silver closed just below $52 |
| Morning floor | $4,032.92 | $51.45 | The jobs-bar lows in the pre-market note. Both broke for 30 minutes and recovered |
| U.S. lows | $4,029.83 | $51.37 | Gold’s at 9:30 AM ET, silver’s at 9:15 AM ET |
| Round number | $4,000 | $50.00 | Gold broke below it on Oct 30. Not tested today |
Gold’s range today was $77.26, from $4,029.83 to $4,107.09. That is 1.3 times the $59 median day over the past month. Gold closed $36.50 below its overnight high and $40.76 above its New York low.
Trend check
On our monthly trend model, both metals have been in a bear reading since the end of October. At today’s futures price, gold’s live reading is still a bear: its 12-month return is 1.6% below zero, after cash returns. Silver’s live reading is a correction. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.
What the Fed is expected to do next
Fed funds futures imply about 81% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 4:00 PM ET. That is up from 69% at Thursday’s close and 72% after the jobs report this morning. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 18%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 85% odds of at least one hike by January 27.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC, “My expectation is, we’re going to have to tighten policy further,” Reuters reported. She said the Fed should be “deliberate but more gradual” given the market swings. Daly doesn’t vote on policy this year. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem called inflation “a regressive tax” and said AI investment will keep adding to it, Reuters reported. On Monday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on community banking at 8:40 AM ET. Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook on Tuesday at 4:00 AM ET.
Economic calendar: what’s next for gold
- Sun Nov 8, 6:00 PM ET
- Gold and silver reopen. Tokenized gold traded 24/7 near $4,050 after the close (Tether Gold $4,050.40, PAX Gold $4,053.71 at about 5:10 PM ET), a thin, approximate reference.
- Sun Nov 8, 8:30 PM ET
- China’s October consumer and producer prices. China’s October reserve and gold-holding data is due over the weekend.
- Mon Nov 9, 8:40 AM ET
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on community banking. 3-year Treasury note auction ($58 billion), results at 1:00 PM ET.
- Tue Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET
- October consumer prices (CPI). Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 4:00 AM ET. 10-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET. Russia–U.S.–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi.
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What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold closed $17.69 lower than Thursday and silver $0.16 higher. Our ask at the close was $4,070.00 for gold and $52.08 for silver.
- Your price
- Gold moved $49 inside the New York session. The price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
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- We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
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Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Spot gold closed at $4,070.59 an ounce at 5:00 PM ET on Nov 6, 2026, down $17.69 (0.43%) from Thursday. It traded between $4,029.83 and $4,107.09. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.
Why did gold fall after the jobs report?
Employers added 165,000 jobs against a 65,000 forecast, and pay rose 0.4%. That made a December rate hike more likely: odds reached 81% by the close. The dollar rose and gold fell $30 to $4,029.83 in the hour after the release.
Why did gold recover later in the day?
Gold’s low came at 9:30 AM ET, as the stock market opened. In the next 45 minutes S&P 500 futures rose 63 points and gold rose $25. It kept climbing to 2:00 PM ET as the 2-year yield eased.
Why did silver rise while gold fell?
Silver held up overnight while gold fell about $52 in Asia. In New York the two moved together, and from 8:45 AM ET silver was flat while gold rose 0.56%. On the day silver gained 0.30% and gold lost 0.43%.
Is a jobs-day dip like this a good time to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Gold bounced $41 from its low but closed $36.50 below its overnight high, and markets are shut until Sunday evening. Some buyers wait; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:00 PM ET on Nov 6, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: OANDA spot gold and silver, TVC dollar index, Treasury yields and Brent crude via TradingView; CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employment Situation, Oct 2026, as reported); University of Michigan (Surveys of Consumers, Nov 2026 preliminary); Federal Reserve (G.19 Consumer Credit, Sep 2026); Ivey Business School (Ivey PMI); CFTC (Commitments of Traders, Nov 3 2026); Reuters (Daly, Musalem); CNBC (Hassett); Al Jazeera; IRNA; Tasnim; Axios; U.S. Treasury (sanctions); ICE Brent via Yahoo Finance; U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); Federal Reserve Board (calendar); Forex Factory economic calendar; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED (2-year Treasury yield); Tether Gold and PAX Gold via TradingView; COMEX gold and silver futures, stock index futures and index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX front-month futures and T-bill rates via Yahoo Finance).
How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
