Gold Closes Up 0.7% at $4,088.28 as Stock Selling Trims an Overnight Gain

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 5, 2026. For the overnight rally in Asia and the Bank of England’s rate hike, read the pre-market note.

Why is gold up today?

Our pre-market note had gold at $4,121.81 at 8:45 AM ET. It named a close below $4,100 as the level that would undo the morning’s gain. Gold closed below $4,100 twice in the morning, recovered, and closed below it again from 4:00 PM ET.

1. Overnight, Asia. Gold futures rose $31 after Tokyo opened and $41 after Shanghai opened, as the pre-market note set out. That is where the day’s gain came from.
2. The 8:30 AM ET data. Gold rose $6 in the 15 minutes after the productivity and jobless claims reports.
3. The stock market open. Gold reached its U.S. high of $4,135.98 at 9:30 AM ET, and closed that 15-minute bar at $4,096.48. S&P 500 futures fell 63 points in that time and the VIX rose from 17.7 to 20.0.
4. The stock low. Gold fell to $4,076.30 at 10:45 AM ET, its low of the day in New York. S&P 500 futures hit their morning low at 10:50 AM ET with the VIX at 27.3. Futures traded 21,505 gold contracts in the 50 minutes to 10:55 AM ET.
5. The pause. When stocks stopped falling, gold rose $43 to $4,127.40 by 11:45 AM ET. The dollar and the 2-year yield eased.
6. The second stock leg. Stocks fell again into 1:00 PM ET, and gold fell $29 in futures with them.
7. The close. Gold rose $12 in futures around 2:40 PM ET on a Reuters report about Iran’s nuclear proposal. From 3:00 PM ET stocks sold off into their close, and gold fell $26 to $4,088.35 by 4:00 PM ET.

It wasn’t rates or the dollar. The 2-year yield fell all day and the dollar index ended up 0.06%. Silver fell about twice as far as gold in each down leg. Our read is that funds sold gold to raise cash and meet margin calls as stocks fell. We can see the timing and the volume, not who sold.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

The stock sell-off

The S&P 500 closed at 7,353.73, down 4.36%. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, the Dow 3.44% and the Russell 2000 4.45%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 12.25%. The VIX closed at 28.18, up from 16.61. Europe’s STOXX 600 fell 0.38%.

Before the open

Chip stocks were already lower. Qualcomm reported on Wednesday evening, with handset revenue down 26% from a year earlier and a weaker outlook, its filing shows. Arm also reported. Korean chip stocks fell overnight. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.5% before the open while S&P 500 futures were flat.

At the open

The selling spread to the whole market at 9:30 AM ET. We found no single headline at that time.

The election

News reports tied part of the selling to Democrats’ wins, citing campaign promises to limit data-center building. There is no new law or rule behind that.

Gold and stocks fell together in New York. Gold miners gained 0.5% against gold, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners fell 1.2% against silver. Both ratios hit their lows at 10:45 AM ET with the stock market.

Ausecure’s Peter Thomas on Asharq Bloomberg

Peter Thomas, Ausecure’s chairman, spoke live from Chicago on Asharq Bloomberg from about 11:35 to 11:41 AM ET (10:35 to 10:41 AM CT). Spot gold was $4,116.66 in the 15 minutes to 11:45 AM ET, mid-interview, on our 15-minute data. The interview was in Arabic; his main points:

Stocks and AI

Much of the money in the market went into AI stocks. After the election, he said, Washington looks less friendly to AI, and some investors are moving from those stocks into gold and silver.

$4,000

The question is whether gold holds $4,000 into next quarter and next year. If it does, he sees higher prices on the charts. That is his view, not an Ausecure forecast.

Central banks

They are the ones buying and storing gold. The only physical selling he sees is Russia’s, during the war years.

Rates

Inflation matters too. He pointed to the quarter-point hike expected from the Fed. Gold pays no interest or dividend, so pressure from rates shows up in its price.

Spending

Democrats won, but he expects lower government spending next quarter, and markets have a lot to absorb before inflation comes down.

The full interview is on our page of more of Pete’s interviews.

Today’s economic data and what it means

The 8:30 AM ET reports showed fast productivity growth, falling labor costs and few layoffs. The stock market set the tone after that.

Jobless claims (Labor Department)

Initial claims fell 6,000 to 189,000 in the week to Oct 31, against a 197,000 forecast. The prior week was revised up to 195,000. Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million in the week to Oct 24. Few layoffs keep the job market firm, which supports the Fed officials who want to keep raising rates.

Productivity and labor costs (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Output per hour rose at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter, against a 2.8% forecast. The second quarter was revised up to 2.1% from 1.4%. Unit labor costs fell at a 0.7% rate, against a forecast of a 0.3% rise; the second quarter was revised to 1.9%. Faster productivity lets wages rise without pushing up prices as much, which eases one source of inflation. Spot gold rose $6.05 in the 15 minutes after the release.

Job cuts (Challenger, Gray & Christmas)

U.S. employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, up from 43,281 in September and down 71% from a year earlier.

Natural gas (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Storage rose 77 billion cubic feet in the week to Oct 30, a smaller build than the 81 forecast. Gold moved with stocks, not with the report.

Treasury bills (TreasuryDirect)

The 4-week bill sold at 3.890% with 2.46 bids for each dollar offered, and the 8-week at 3.975% with 2.68.

What it adds up to: the data showed a firm job market and easing labor costs. The stock sell-off did more to the Fed picture: December hike odds fell to 69% from 92% this morning. Next is the October jobs report on Friday at 8:30 AM ET.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 101.59, up 0.06% from Wednesday. Its low was 101.20 at 11:00 PM ET Wednesday and its high 101.71 at 9:30 AM ET. In New York it fell while gold fell, so the dollar did not drive gold lower. Over the past two weeks gold is up 1.4% and the dollar is flat.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.84% and the 30-year 5.26% at the close, down 0.05 and 0.02 point from Wednesday. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 10-year at 4.84%, the 30-year at 5.25% and the 2-year at 4.46%, down 0.12 point. The 10-year real yield fell 0.04 point to 2.60%, its lowest in a month. The 10-year breakeven fell 0.02 point to 2.24%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s new weekly survey (Nov 5), down 0.06 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.57%.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Oil, Iran and Washington

Brent crude ended near $99.20, up 4.8% from Wednesday. It climbed from about 12:10 PM ET with no single headline. Gold didn’t follow oil today: it held flat from 1:00 to 2:35 PM ET while Brent rose $1.20. One Iran headline moved gold.

Iran’s proposal

Reuters reported, citing a senior Iranian official, that Iran sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar (headline and summary; the story is behind a paywall). Gold futures rose $12 in the five minutes from 2:40 PM ET, as stocks rose and oil slipped.

Trump

At about 4:31 PM ET he told reporters, “I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I’ll have to.” Brent rose to its high of the day; gold didn’t move.

Tankers

Iran’s navy said two more tankers hit mines near Hormuz, Iranian state media reported at 10:05 AM ET. No shipping authority has confirmed it. Gold and oil didn’t move on it.

Talks

The New York Times reported at 11:34 AM ET that Iran is reviewing “concrete proposals” on its nuclear program (headline only; the story is behind a paywall). Gold rose $6 in five minutes, inside a rebound already under way.

Hegseth

NBC News reported that President Trump may replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He had not been fired by 5:00 PM ET.

Other central banks

The Bank of England raised its rate to 4.00% this morning, covered in the pre-market note. In the minutes Governor Andrew Bailey wrote, “I can see the argument for a further increase in rates.”

Silver price today: down 0.9%, below $52

Spot silver closed at $51.79, down $0.45 from Wednesday’s close of $52.24. Its night high was $53.48 at 9:45 PM ET Wednesday. In New York it reached $53.14 at 9:30 AM ET and fell to $51.59 at 10:45 AM ET, in the same bar as gold’s low. It has closed below $52 since 4:00 PM ET.

From 8:45 AM ET silver fell 1.92% and gold 0.81%. The ratio rose from 78.06 to 78.94, near its high of the day of 78.96. Silver fell about twice as far as gold in each of the stock-led drops, and rose further in the rebound. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 7 to Nov 5 (64 trading days):

Today broke the pattern. Gold futures rose 0.6% and silver futures fell 0.6%, so the ratio rose 0.92 on an up day for gold. Gold’s gain came overnight; in New York silver fell harder in each stock-led drop.

Gold/silver ratio: where 78.9 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high, before the past two weeks, was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Nov 4, 2025) the ratio was 84.0, with gold at $3,960.50 and silver at $47.13. To Wednesday’s close, gold futures were up 2.8% over the year and silver up 10.6%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 23.4% and silver 54.7%, to Wednesday’s close.

Dovish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield fell 0.05 point or more on 22 days. Gold rose on 14 of them, by 0.5% on average, and the ratio fell on 16. Today the 2-year fell 0.12 point. Gold rose, but the ratio rose too, against that pattern.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78.5 after weeks well below it five times before this run (February 2003, October 2008, July 2017, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower in four of the five. Five cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has risen on most of gold’s big down days. Today it rose on a small up day, because silver fell harder in New York. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $89.09, from $4,057.83 at 6:00 PM ET Wednesday to $4,146.92. That is 1.5 times the $60 median day over the past month. Gold closed $58.64 below its high and $11.98 above its New York low.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals have been in a bear reading since the end of October. At today’s futures price, gold’s live reading is back to a bear: its 12-month return is 0.3% below zero, after cash returns, and a 0.3% rise would turn it up again. Silver’s live reading is a correction. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 69% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 5:02 PM ET. That is down from 86% at Wednesday’s close and 92% this morning. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 16%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 74% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

Most of the drop came between 9:30 and 10:50 AM ET, as stocks fell. Two Fed officials said the opposite this morning. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who votes on policy this year, said in a speech in Zurich, “I expect that monetary policy will need to move to a restrictive stance to bring inflation back to 2 percent in a timely manner.” Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told CNBC that “the path is pretty straightforward. The question, of course, is pace,” and that “gradual makes sense.”

On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 4:30 AM ET and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem at 9:10 AM ET, the Forex Factory calendar shows. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 12:15 PM ET.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed $27.92 higher than Wednesday and silver $0.45 lower. Our ask at the close was $4,092.00 for gold and $51.93 for silver.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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