Gold Closes Up 3.3% at $4,060.36 as the Election and Falling Oil Lift Prices

This market close note uses spot prices at the 5:00 PM ET close on Nov 4, 2026. For the overnight move as the election results came in, read the pre-market note.

Why is gold up today?

Our pre-market note had gold at $4,039.15 at 8:30 AM ET. It flagged the overnight high of $4,051.62 as the level above. Gold first closed a 15-minute bar above it at 11:30 AM ET and stayed above it into the close.

1. Overnight, the election. Gold rose $108.82 by 8:30 AM ET in two steps, as the pre-market note set out. The dollar and the 2-year yield fell in the first step. The second came after the Senate call, led by buying in Shanghai.
2. The morning data. Gold slipped to its U.S. low of $4,029.12 in the 15 minutes after the ISM services report at 10:00 AM ET. The 2-year yield rose 0.02 point in that bar.
3. The Vance post. At 10:38 AM ET Vance wrote on X: “The reason we lost is the war.” Brent began to fall seven minutes later and dropped $2 by 11:00 AM ET. Gold rose $9 in that bar.
4. The second oil drop. Between 11:15 and noon ET Brent fell another $4, and U.S. crude fell below $90. Gold rose $25 to $4,066.45 on the heaviest futures volume of the New York day. No single headline lines up with it. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said “we are going to end the war,” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries put ending it first on his agenda, and Donald Trump Jr. backed Vance’s post at 11:32 AM ET.
5. The afternoon. Gold held between $4,055 and $4,070 on light volume. President Trump told reporters around 1:10 PM ET that it was “largely true” the war cost the election, and that “we continue to do it.” Brent rose 41 cents in the next 15 minutes, and gold futures fell $1.90.

It wasn’t the dollar in New York. The dollar index rose 0.4% from its 8:15 AM ET low while gold climbed. Our read is that lower oil lowered inflation worries and longer-term yields, and gold rose with that. We can see the timing and the volume, not who bought.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

Two services reports came out at 9:45 and 10:00 AM ET, and both came in under forecasts. The oil inventory report followed at 10:30 AM ET.

ISM services

The index fell to 54.5 in October from 54.9, the Institute for Supply Management said. Above 50 means growth, and all ten sub-indexes were above it for the first time since February. New orders fell to 55.9 from 59.8. Employment rose to 51.4 from 50.1. Prices paid eased to 73.0 from 74.0, still above 70 for the seventh time in eight months. Backlogs rose to 58.0, the highest since July 2022. Firm prices and a steady job market keep a December hike on the table. Gold fell $4.90 in futures in the 15 minutes after the release, and the 10-year yield rose 0.03 point.

S&P Global services

The final October index was 56.1, down from the 57.9 flash reading and 58.8 in September, Dow Jones reported. The composite was 55.9. Gold futures fell $14 in the 30 minutes after it.

Oil stocks

U.S. commercial crude stocks fell 865,000 barrels in the week to Oct 30, the Energy Information Administration said, a smaller draw than the 1.7 million forecast. Distillate stocks fell 3.57 million barrels. Brent moved 19 cents in the next 15 minutes.

Treasury bills

The 17-week bill sold at 4.090% with 3.26 bids for each dollar offered, TreasuryDirect said. Last week’s sold at 4.140%.

What it adds up to: the data was softer than forecast but not weak enough to change the Fed picture. December hike odds ended at 86%, up from 84% at Tuesday’s close. Next are jobless claims on Thursday and the October jobs report on Friday.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 101.53, down 0.32% from Tuesday. All of the drop came overnight: it reached a one-month low of 101.10 at 8:15 AM ET and rose 0.43% from there. Over the past two weeks gold is down 1.3% and the dollar down 0.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.89% and the 30-year 5.28% at the close, down 0.08 and 0.06 point from Tuesday. The Treasury’s figures for today had the 10-year at 4.90%, the 30-year at 5.28% and the 2-year at 4.58%. The 10-year real yield fell 0.01 point to 2.64%. The 10-year breakeven fell 0.04 point to 2.26%, its lowest in a month, as oil fell. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.60%. The next survey is out Thursday.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices have moved since the close. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Oil, Iran and Washington after the vote

Brent crude ended near $94.60, down about 9%, and U.S. crude near $88.40. Brent was below $100 for the first time in a month. The other Iran headlines today did not move gold by more than $6.

Vance

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” he wrote on X at 10:38 AM ET. Oil’s first drop began within minutes.

Democratic leaders

Schumer told reporters “we are going to end the war” and pointed to Congress’s power of the purse, AFP reported. Jeffries said the House will pass a bill to stop tariffs and end the Iran war.

Trump

At 8:55 AM ET, Bloomberg reported that he played down the prospect of more strikes (headline only; the story is behind a paywall). Around 1:10 PM ET he said the war “we had to do and we continue to do it.” He also said he will veto bills he called “insane.”

Sanctions

The Treasury sanctioned an India-based network that supplied false flags and fake certificates to Iran’s shadow fleet of tankers.

Iran

The Revolutionary Guards said four tankers were destroyed by mines near Hormuz. No shipping authority has confirmed it. A report of “significant progress” in U.S.–Iran talks, from Lebanon’s Al-Jadeed citing anonymous sources, is also unconfirmed.

The count

The Mississippi and Alaska Senate races were still uncalled at 4:00 PM ET, and AP had 59 House races uncalled. House Speaker Mike Johnson won’t seek reelection as Republican leader, AP reported.

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 1.58% and the Dow 3.03%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.13%. The VIX closed at 16.61, down 4.22. Gold and stocks rose together.

Other central banks

The Bank of England decides on Thursday at 7:00 AM ET, and a hike to 4.00% is forecast.

Silver price today: up 4.9%, above $52

Spot silver closed at $52.24, up $2.43 from Tuesday’s close of $49.80. Its overnight low was $48.96 at 10:00 PM ET Tuesday. In New York it reached $52.46 at 1:00 PM ET, in the same bar as gold’s high. It has closed every 15-minute bar above $52 since 11:30 AM ET.

From 8:30 AM ET silver rose 0.75% and gold 0.53%. The ratio’s low of the day was 77.44 at 9:30 AM ET, and it closed at 77.73. Mining shares rose faster than the metals. Gold miners gained 5.1% against gold, measured by the GDX/GLD ratio, and silver miners 3.6% against silver. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 6 to Nov 4 (64 trading days):

Today fit the pattern. Gold futures rose 3.3%, silver futures 5.5%, and the futures ratio fell 1.63. In the spot market most of the ratio’s drop came overnight; in New York it held between 77.4 and 77.9.

Gold/silver ratio: where 77.7 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

The last time the ratio was this high, before the past two weeks, was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7 with gold at $4,165 and silver at $52.92. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

A year ago (Nov 3, 2025) the ratio was 83.8, with gold at $4,014 and silver at $47.89. To Tuesday’s close, gold futures were down 1.8% over the year and silver up 3.5%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 25.9% and silver 56.9%, to Tuesday’s close.

Dovish days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield fell 0.05 point or more on 22 days. Gold rose on 14 of them, by 0.5% on average. Silver rose 0.3% on average and the ratio fell on 16. Today the 2-year fell 0.03 point on the Treasury’s figures, short of that line. Gold, silver and the ratio still moved the way they have on those days, by much more.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 77.5 after weeks well below it four times before this run (February 2003, October 2008, September 2020, September 2021). Three months later it was lower in three of the four. Four cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has fallen on most of gold’s big up days, and it did so today. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels after the close

Gold’s range today was $150.53, from $3,919.90 at 7:30 PM ET Tuesday to $4,070.43. That is more than twice the $59 median day over the past month. Gold closed $10 below its high.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals have been in a bear reading since the end of October. At today’s futures price, silver’s live reading is a correction: its 12-month return is 5.2% above zero, after cash returns. Gold would need to rise about 2.3% for its 12-month return to turn up. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 86% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 5:01 PM ET. That is up from 84% at Tuesday’s close. The odds of a hike at the January 27 meeting itself are about 23%. Counting both meetings, futures price about 89% odds of at least one hike by January 27.

This morning’s note gave 77% for December. The December futures price ended the day where it was at 8:20 AM ET, so the morning figure overstated the election’s effect on the odds. Yields fell today, but the market still expects the Fed to raise rates next month.

No Fed releases or speeches came out today. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at 8:50 AM ET and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 9:10 AM ET, the Forex Factory calendar shows. Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Friday.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold closed $130 higher than Tuesday and silver $2.43 higher. Our ask at the close was $4,064.30 for gold and $52.35 for silver.

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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