Gold Price Today: Gold Rises 1.5% to $4,122 as Asia Extends the Election Rally

This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:45 AM ET on Nov 5, 2026. For Wednesday’s session, when gold closed up $130.03 at $4,060.36, read the market close note.

Why is gold up today?

Gold rose in Asia. The two big steps came as Tokyo and Shanghai opened. The dollar slipped and oil fell to its low of the night. We found no headline timed to either step.

1. Tokyo open (7:10 to 7:45 PM ET). Gold futures rose $31. Volume in one 5-minute bar was nearly seven times the night’s normal. The dollar index fell 0.09 and the yen firmed after hawkish Bank of Japan minutes.
2. Shanghai open (8:05 to 9:05 PM ET). Gold futures rose another $41, the largest leg of the night. The biggest 5-minute gain, $18, came at 8:10 PM ET, as the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened. China’s central bank set a stronger yuan fix at 8:15 PM ET. Brent crude fell to $93.44.
3. The high (9:00 to 10:45 PM ET). Spot gold drifted up to $4,146.92 at 10:45 PM ET. The dollar index reached its low of 101.20 at 11:10 PM ET.
4. London and the Bank of England (2:00 to 8:45 AM ET). The dollar recovered to 101.63 and Brent rose $4 to $97.71. Gold futures fell $7 in the five minutes after the Bank of England’s 7:00 AM ET hike. Spot gold fell from $4,138 at 6:15 AM ET to $4,111.44 at 8:30 AM ET.

Our read is that buyers in Asia added to Wednesday’s election move. We can see the timing and the volume, not who bought.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

The Bank of England decided at 7:00 AM ET. U.S. jobless claims came out at 8:30 AM ET.

Bank of England

It raised its rate to 4.00% from 3.75%, its first hike in this cycle. Eight members voted for a quarter point, and Catherine Mann voted for half a point. The bank now expects UK inflation to rise to about 5% by the middle of next year, from 3.5% in September. It said policy is “not on a pre-set path.” Gold futures fell $7 in the next five minutes, and the pound rose 0.2%.

Jobless claims (Labor Department)

Initial claims fell 6,000 to 189,000 in the week to Oct 31, against a 197,000 forecast. The prior week was revised up to 195,000. Continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million. The four-week average fell to 194,750. Few layoffs support the Fed’s case for a December hike. Spot gold dipped to $4,111.44 in the 8:30 AM ET bar and closed it at $4,121.81.

What it adds up to: a second big central bank raised rates into the oil shock, and U.S. layoffs stayed low. Both point to tighter policy, and gold eased on each. Friday’s October jobs report, forecast at 65,000, is the next big test.

How much was the dollar?

The U.S. Dollar Index is 101.63, up 0.10% from Wednesday’s close. It fell to 101.20 at 11:10 PM ET, a five-week low, then recovered through the European morning. Over the past two weeks gold is up 1.6% and the dollar is down 0.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.90%, up 0.01 point from Wednesday. The 30-year is 5.28%, up 0.01 point. The 2-year is 4.62%, up 0.03 point. The 10-year fell to 4.84% overnight before rising back. Treasury’s Wednesday figures had the 10-year at 4.90% and the 30-year at 5.28%. The 10-year real yield was 2.64% on Wednesday, down 0.01 point, the Treasury said. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 29), down 0.08 point from a week earlier. The 15-year was 6.60%. Freddie Mac publishes its new survey at noon today.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Prices keep moving through the morning. Our live metal prices page has bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, updated as the market moves.

Iran, Hormuz and oil

The Gulf headlines overnight lifted oil, not gold. Gold’s gains came before them, at the Asian opens.

Hormuz tankers

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire near the strait and that they took control of two U.S. drones, Al Jazeera reported at 11:15 PM ET, citing Fars. Iran’s navy later said a third tanker hit a mine east of the strait, Tasnim reported. Only Iranian media carried these claims, and no ship was named. Gold fell $6 in the 15 minutes after the first report, then recovered.

Confirmed attack

The UK Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker was hit by two projectiles 50 nautical miles north of Qatar at 6:20 PM ET Wednesday.

Houthi missile

The Saudi-led coalition said its air defenses shot down a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at the Medina region. Houthi media said air strikes hit the Hamdan district of Sanaa this morning. Neither moved gold.

Talks

Oman’s foreign minister spoke with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi about reopening Hormuz to shipping and ending the war, Oman’s foreign ministry said.

Hegseth

Rep. Thomas Massie called for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to resign, and Al Jazeera reported a House impeachment vote could come next week. President Trump said this morning he has “every intention” of keeping Hegseth.

How traders read it

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, told Al Jazeera that markets look to be pricing in an end to the war. He added that a further U.S. strike is “still very likely.”

Oil

Brent crude was $96.99 at 8:45 AM ET, up 2.5% from Wednesday’s close. It fell to $93.44 at 9:00 PM ET, then rose with each tanker report and after the Bank of England.

Other central banks and markets

European Central Bank

Board member Isabel Schnabel said consumer inflation expectations over the medium to longer term have risen since the energy shock. She gave no signal on the next rate move.

Bank of Japan

Minutes of its September meeting confirmed most members backed the hike to about 1.25%.

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were up 0.10% at 8:22 AM ET, Dow futures up 0.62% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.78%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.79% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 3.67%.

World Gold Council: ETFs added $2.7bn in October

Global gold ETFs added US$2.7bn in October, according to the World Gold Council, the fourth straight month of inflows. Holdings rose 19 tonnes to a month-end record of 4,275 tonnes. European funds led with US$1.8bn and Asian funds added US$1.3bn. North American funds had outflows of US$512mn. The council’s monthly commentary said gold ended October at US$3,913, down 6.3% for the month.

Silver price today: up 1.1%, near $52.80

Spot silver is $52.80, up $0.56 from Wednesday’s close of $52.24. It rose with gold in Asia and reached $53.48 at 9:45 PM ET. It closed above $53 from 9:00 to 11:45 PM ET, then fell back. Its low this morning was $52.45 at 7:30 AM ET.

Silver rose 1.1% to gold’s 1.5%, so the gold/silver ratio rose to 78.1 from 77.7. Silver kept pace with gold in the two Asian legs. The ratio rose after 12:15 AM ET, when silver fell faster than gold as Shanghai’s afternoon session reopened. It reached 78.47 at 7:15 AM ET. We found no silver-specific news.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Silver has moved with gold and further. From daily COMEX futures closes, Aug 6 to Nov 4 (64 trading days):

Overnight broke the pattern for an up day: gold rose 1.5% and the ratio rose 0.3. The intraday view shows silver kept up in Asia and fell behind after midnight ET.

Gold/silver ratio: where 78.1 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

The last time the ratio was this high

Before the past week, it was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.71 with gold at $4,165 and silver at $52.92. Silver’s run to its record followed. A month later the ratio was 62.2, with silver up 32% and gold up 4%. That is one episode, not a forecast.

A year ago

On Nov 4, 2025 the ratio was 84.0, with gold at $3,960.50 and silver at $47.13. To Wednesday’s close, gold futures were up 2.8% over the year and silver up 10.6%.

Before gold’s record

The ratio was 87.7 six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026. It was 84.5 three months before, 62.2 a month before and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26 with the ratio at 44.2.

Since the record

Gold futures are down 23.4% and silver 54.7%, to Wednesday’s close.

Rate days

Since gold’s record, the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more on 29 days. Gold fell on 22 of them, and the ratio rose on 19. Today’s 2-year move is 0.03 point, below that line.

Other jumps to this level

Since 2000 the ratio has jumped to about 78 after weeks well below it in February 2003, October 2008, July 2017 and September 2020. Three months later it was lower each time. Four cases is a small sample.

In the past 90 days, the ratio has fallen on most of gold’s big up days. Overnight it rose instead. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels we’re watching

Gold’s range since the reopen is $89.09, about 1.4 times a typical full day over the past month. Gold is $25 below its night high.

Trend check

On our monthly trend model, both metals read bear as of the Oct 30 month-end. Their 12-month and one-month returns, after cash returns, were both down. Since 2002, gold rose in the month after a bear month 49% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. At this morning’s futures price, gold’s live reading has moved to a correction: its 12-month return is 0.4% above zero, so a 0.4% fall would turn it back. Silver’s live reading is also a correction.

What the Fed is expected to do next

Fed funds futures imply about 92% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 8:36 AM ET, up from 86% at Wednesday’s close. The December contract’s price didn’t change; the shift came from the November contract, which sets the starting rate. Counting the January 27 meeting, futures price about 94% odds of at least one hike.

Futures price at least one hike by March 17 at about 98%. Today’s claims and the Bank of England’s hike point the same way.

No Fed releases or speeches came out overnight. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was due to speak at 8:50 AM ET, and Richmond’s Tom Barkin speaks at 9:10 AM ET.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold is about $61 above Wednesday’s close and silver about 56 cents above it. Overnight, gold traded in an $89 range.

Your price

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Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

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