Gold Closes Down 0.3% at $4,165.20 as Oil and Fed Hike Bets Rise Before CPI
Gold’s overnight bounce faded once U.S. trading began. It slipped to $4,147 by early afternoon, just above the support area we flagged this morning, as oil and rate-hike bets rose. Silver fell harder. Here’s how metals closed, the levels in play, and what’s next before Wednesday’s inflation report.
For general information only, not investment advice. Ausecure is a precious-metals dealer and sells the products discussed.
The short version
- How gold closed today: $4,165.20 an ounce (Ausecure’s ask at the 5:00 PM ET close), down $10.60 (0.3%) from Monday’s close of $4,175.80 and down $24.40 from our 8:37 AM ET price of $4,189.60. Spot’s range since Monday evening was $4,147.00 to $4,200.63.
- Silver price today: $59.31, down $1.13 (1.9%). The gold/silver ratio rose to about 70.3, the highest in our three-week data window.
- After the open: gold fell from $4,189.70 at 9:30 AM ET to $4,147.00 at 1:45 PM ET, then recovered to about $4,161. It made only one 15-minute close below $4,150 and none below $4,143.
- The Fed: CME FedWatch shows a 23.8% chance of a hike on Oct 28 as of 4:50 PM ET, up from 19.4% this morning and 21.0% at Monday’s close.
Why did gold fall after the open?
Gold started the day well. Overnight it held above $4,150 and rose to $4,200.63 at 1:15 AM ET as yields and oil eased, as we covered in our pre-market note. That gain did not survive U.S. trading.
From the 9:30 AM ET open gold drifted lower for four hours, from $4,189.70 to $4,147.00 at 1:45 PM ET. That low sat inside the $4,143–$4,150 support area we flagged this morning. Buyers held it: gold made just one 15-minute close below $4,150, on lighter-than-usual volume, and rose back to about $4,163 by 2:00 PM ET. It finished the session near $4,161 on spot.
There was no major U.S. economic release today, so the move came from rates and oil rather than a data surprise.
Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks
Why did rate-hike bets rise?
Treasury yields and oil rose together during the U.S. session. The 10-year Treasury yield went from 5.19% this morning to 5.22%, and the 2-year from 4.77% to 4.80%, with the 2-year peaking at 4.82% at 9:45 AM ET. Brent crude rose from $104.94 to as high as $106.75.
Rate-futures traders added to hike bets. CME FedWatch put the chance of no change on Oct 28 at 76.2% and a hike at 23.8% as of 4:50 PM ET (3:50 PM CT), compared with 80.6% and 19.4% at 8:25 AM ET this morning. Higher odds of a hike tend to weigh on gold, which pays no interest.
How much of today’s move was the dollar?
None of it. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.38% on the day to 102.20, which by our estimate would point to a gold gain of about 0.7%. Gold fell 0.26% on spot instead, about 0.9% worse than the dollar alone would suggest.
Since this morning the dollar was flat (−0.04%), while gold fell 0.56% on spot. Gold measured against a basket of major currencies (gold × DXY) was 0.6% lower than at 8:30 AM ET. Today’s drop was about gold itself, driven by rates and oil.
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, rebased to 100
Live bid and ask for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Every order is priced off the live market and confirmed when you place it.
Oil, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the day’s news
- Oil: Brent crude eased to about $104.51 early this morning, then climbed to $106.75 at 4:15 PM ET and was $106.30 at 5:00 PM ET, up 1.3% from this morning’s pull. Brent futures settled at $105.69, down 96 cents on the day, according to CNBC, as hopes for more Russian diesel supply offset the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis. Later, InvestingLive reported loud booms near Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran.
- Why oil matters for gold right now: higher oil has lifted inflation worries and rate-hike bets, which has weighed on gold. Overnight, gold rose as oil eased; this afternoon it fell as oil climbed back.
- Fed speakers: Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she expects the Fed will need to raise rates again before the end of 2026, and named energy costs, tariffs and AI investment as forces that could keep inflation above 2%, according to InvestingLive’s report of her remarks. We did not find a full report of Richmond Fed President Barkin’s remarks.
Silver price today: down 1.9%, lagging gold
Silver ended at $59.31 on our ask, down $1.13. On spot it fell from $60.74 overnight to a low of $58.90 at 1:45 PM ET, the same time as gold’s low, and closed near $59.17. It made no 15-minute close below $58.90. The gold/silver ratio rose to 70.3 on spot, the highest reading in our three-week data window.
Mining shares fell too. Gold miners lost 1.3% against gold (GDX/GLD), and junior silver miners fell 1.2% against silver (SILJ/SLV). Weaker silver and weaker miners on a down day for gold mean the rest of the metals complex did not show strength.
Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks
Gold and silver price levels after the close
| Level | Gold | Silver | What happened today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Failed breakout | $4,208 | — | Not reached today |
| Overnight high | $4,200.63 | $60.74 | Set after midnight ET; no 15-minute close above either |
| U.S.-session high | $4,189.70 | $60.19 | Set at the 9:30 AM ET open, then sold |
| Day’s low | $4,147.00 | $58.90 | Both set at 1:45 PM ET; gold recovered about $14 by the close |
| Support | $4,143–$4,150 | $58.90 | Gold tested the top of the zone and held; one close below $4,150, none below $4,143 |
Gold covered about $54 from high to low since Monday evening. Over the past few weeks the typical day covered about $63, and 80% of days stayed inside $80, so this was a slightly quieter day than usual.
What’s next: Wednesday and Thursday
Weekly Market Notes
The week in one email
Every weekend: how gold and silver closed each day, what moved them, and the levels for the week ahead.
See the latest weekly emailThis weekAusecure closing ask
| Day | Gold | Change | Silver | Silver change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonOct 12 | $4,175.80 | −0.5% | $60.44 | −0.8% |
| TueOct 13 | $4,165.20 | −0.3% | $59.31 | −1.9% |
| WeekendWeekly email | The week’s wrap-up → | |||
You’re subscribed.Our emails will go to .
Buying metal too? A free account lets you order at live prices and track every shipment.
What today means if you buy physical gold or silver
Gold dipped to a support area and held it, while silver fell nearly 2%, and Wednesday’s CPI report could move both. For buyers of coins and bars, the practical questions are what you pay over spot and when your price is set:
- Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market, so an order placed tonight, or before or after Wednesday’s CPI report, uses that moment’s price.
- Compare the premium over spot. Most products show their “% over spot” under the price, so a coin and a bar can be compared on equal terms. With the gold/silver ratio near 70, each ounce of gold costs about 70 ounces of silver today.
- Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
- Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
- Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.
Auto-Buy places a recurring order for American Eagles or a 10 oz silver bar, weekly to every two months, priced at the live market on each order date. Every Auto-Buy order ships free and insured, you get a reminder before each one, and you can skip, pause or cancel anytime.
Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks
Coins and bars from the U.S. Mint, Royal Canadian Mint, PAMP, Valcambi and more. Every order is 100% insured, tracked and shipped discreetly.
Open a free account to buy at live prices. A+ BBB rated, trusted since 2009, and every order 100% insured.
Frequently asked questions
How did gold close today?
Gold closed Oct 13, 2026 at $4,165.20 an ounce on Ausecure’s ask at 5:00 PM ET, down $10.60 (0.3%) from Monday’s $4,175.80. Spot ranged from $4,147.00 to $4,200.63 since Monday evening.
Why is gold down today when the dollar fell?
Rates and oil. The dollar index fell 0.38%, which on its own would have pointed to a higher gold price. Instead, Treasury yields and Brent crude rose during U.S. hours, and CME FedWatch hike odds for Oct 28 climbed from 19.4% to 23.8%. Gold fell from $4,189.70 at the open to $4,147.00 at 1:45 PM ET.
Did gold hold the $4,143–$4,150 support today?
Yes. Gold’s low was $4,147.00 at 1:45 PM ET. It made one 15-minute close below $4,150 and none below $4,143, then recovered to about $4,161 on spot by the close.
What is the silver price today?
Silver closed Oct 13, 2026 at $59.31 on Ausecure’s ask, down $1.13 (1.9%) from Monday. Its spot low was $58.90 at 1:45 PM ET, and the gold/silver ratio rose to about 70.3.
Is a dip to support the night before CPI a good time to buy gold?
We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows, especially hours before an inflation report that could move prices either way. Some buyers add on down days; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.
This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 5:08 PM ET on Oct 13, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.
Sources: Ausecure live prices (closing ask); CME FedWatch; remarks by Boston Fed President Susan Collins as reported by InvestingLive; CNBC and InvestingLive (oil); Forex Factory economic calendar; OANDA, TVC (incl. Brent) and BATS data via TradingView.
How this note is made: drafted with automated tools from Ausecure’s own prices and the market data listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.
