Gold Price Today: Gold Falls 1.1% to $4,025 as Overnight Selling Breaks the Fed-Day Low

This pre-market note uses spot prices as of 8:41 AM ET on Oct 29, 2026. For how gold swung around the Fed decision on Wednesday, read the market close note.

Why is gold down today?

Gold is down $42.78 because of selling during Asian trading hours that we cannot tie to the dollar, interest rates, oil or a headline. Our measure of the dollar’s effect explains almost none of the move: the U.S. Dollar Index is 0.03% higher than at Wednesday’s close, the 10-year Treasury yield is 0.01 point lower and the 2-year 0.006 point lower. Fed funds futures now put the odds of a December 9 hike at about 83%, down from about 85% at Wednesday’s close. On those numbers, rates and the dollar would have helped gold a little.

1. A light evening dip (6:00 to 8:45 PM ET Wednesday). Gold slipped $30 from its $4,067.29 close to $4,037 on below-normal volume. The biggest 15 minutes, −$9.81 at 8:00 PM ET, came as the dollar index rose 0.1% and the 2-year yield rose 0.02 point.
2. A $29 rebound as Asian markets opened (9:00 to 9:25 PM ET). Gold futures rose from $4,048.50 to $4,081 and spot gold reached its overnight high of $4,068.88, on more than twice normal volume. The dollar index fell 0.14% and Treasury prices rose in the same minutes. It started at 9:00 AM in Beijing; we found no headline.
3. Selling from 9:30 to 11:15 PM ET. Gold fell $29 to $4,039.52 and silver $1.05 to $53.18, on 1.4 to 1.9 times normal volume. The dollar index stayed between 102.09 and 102.18 and the 2-year yield fell to 4.67%. This was selling of the metals themselves.
4. A second burst at 1:30 to 2:00 AM ET. Gold futures fell $20, from $4,055.60 to $4,033.40, in 25 minutes, with 1,163 and 1,367 contracts in the last two five-minute bars, among the heaviest of the night. The dollar, Treasury futures and Brent crude were flat. Spot gold closed the 1:45 AM ET bar at $4,024.87. The timing matches the reopening of Shanghai’s afternoon session (1:30 PM in Shanghai); that is timing, not a cause we can see.
5. A low before London and a flat morning. Gold traded between $4,015.76 and $4,036 from 2:00 AM ET. The low came at 4:45 AM ET. The Lagarde news at 7:00 AM ET and the U.S. data at 8:30 AM ET each lifted gold futures $7 to $8 for a few minutes.

Gold is on course for a second straight monthly fall, with two trading days left in October. That is context; we can see when the selling came and how heavy it was, not who sold. Reuters described gold as slipping on lingering Fed hike bets; our numbers do not support that for the overnight move, since December hike odds fell 2 points and the 2-year yield slipped.

Gold spot (XAU/USD), past two weeks

Today’s economic data and what it means

The U.S. released three reports at 8:30 AM ET: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September’s personal income and spending, with the PCE price index, both from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and weekly jobless claims from the Labor Department.

GDP (Bureau of Economic Analysis): the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in July through September, above the 3.2% forecast and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. BEA said investment, consumer spending and government spending drove it, partly offset by lower exports; inventories and information-processing equipment led investment. Sales to private domestic buyers, which strip out trade, inventories and government, grew 4.9%, up from 4.6%. Prices in the quarter cooled: the PCE price index rose at a 2.1% annual rate, down from 5.0% in the second quarter, and core PCE at 2.5%, down from 3.3%. Growth this strong supports the Fed’s description of the economy as “strong” on Wednesday and does not argue for easing.

PCE inflation (Bureau of Economic Analysis): core PCE prices, which leave out food and energy and are the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.3% in September, as forecast and the same as August. From a year earlier core prices are up 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August, still well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Headline PCE prices rose 0.5% in the month and 3.6% from a year earlier, up from 3.4%; the gap with core points to energy, with Brent crude above $110. A monthly core pace of 0.3% works out to more than 3.5% a year (our arithmetic), so this report keeps inflation as the Fed’s main concern, though it adds no new surprise.

Income and spending (Bureau of Economic Analysis): personal income rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, and spending rose 0.5% in dollars, below the 0.6% forecast and down from 0.9% in August. After inflation, spending was flat in September (0.0%) after rising 0.5% in August, and the saving rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0%; it was 5.6% in January. Households are spending more than their income growth, and higher prices are taking all of September’s spending increase. That is the softest part of this morning’s data.

Jobless claims (Labor Department): first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 194,000 in the week to Oct 24, below the 198,000 forecast, and the prior week was revised up by 1,000 to 195,000. Continuing claims, people still receiving benefits, fell to 1.70 million in the week to Oct 17 from 1.72 million. Claims have stayed between 194,000 and 212,000 since early August. Layoffs are low, so the job market gives the Fed no reason to ease.

How gold reacted: gold futures rose from $4,035.70 to $4,043.50 in the five minutes after 8:30 AM ET on 1,740 contracts, the heaviest five minutes since Wednesday afternoon, and were $4,042 at 8:35 AM ET. The 2-year Treasury yield fell from 4.73% to 4.69% and the dollar index slipped 0.07%. Spot gold was back at $4,024.52 by 8:41 AM ET, where it stood before the release. Fed funds futures for December did not move: the odds of a December 9 hike were about 83% before and after.

What it adds up to: strong growth, a tight job market and core inflation steady at 3.1% keep a December hike the base case in futures, at about 83%; the soft spending numbers and the cooler quarterly price figures pulled the 2-year yield down rather than up, which is why gold did not fall further on the data. For gold, the reports changed little. Next: the employment cost index, a measure of wage growth, on Friday at 8:30 AM ET (forecast 0.8% for the third quarter).

How much was the dollar?

The dollar did not drive gold’s move. The U.S. Dollar Index is 102.15, up 0.03% from Wednesday’s close, in a range of 102.06 to 102.33 overnight. Measured over the night, the dollar’s moves account for almost none of gold’s 1.05% fall. Over the past two weeks gold is down about 3.1% and the dollar is up about 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.01% and the 30-year 5.33%, both within 0.011 point of Wednesday’s close, and the 2-year is 4.69%. Treasury’s Wednesday figures had the 10-year at 5.05% and the 30-year at 5.37%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.32% in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey (Oct 22), down 0.08 point from a week earlier, and the 15-year was 6.68%; the new survey comes out today at 12:00 PM ET.

Gold vs. the U.S. dollar, % change over two weeks

Israel’s vote, the Iran war, oil and the ECB

• Israel’s election and Iran: Israel’s Oct 27 election left no majority. Projections gave Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 53 of 120 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc 48 and Arab parties 19, the Irish Times reported on Wednesday. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister during coalition talks, with powers that include the war with Iran, and on election night he raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran with President Trump. The Financial Times headline on Thursday: “Israel vote leaves door open to Iran attack.” We found no gold move tied to it overnight.
• Oil: Brent crude for January delivery was $110.52, up $0.07 from Wednesday afternoon, in a range of $109.53 to $111.00 overnight. Oil did not move gold this time. In recent weeks gold has tended to fall when oil rose, through higher yields and Fed hike odds.
• Lagarde to leave the ECB early: the European Central Bank said at 7:00 AM ET that President Christine Lagarde has told its Governing Council she will step down on Feb 7, 2027, before her term ends in October 2027; European Union leaders will appoint her successor. The release gave no reason. Gold futures rose $8 in the next ten minutes and gave it back within the hour; the euro moved less than 0.05%. The ECB’s rate decision is at 9:15 AM ET, and a hold is expected.
• Stocks: S&P 500 futures were down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures 1.1% at 8:31 AM ET, with Alphabet shares about 11% lower before the open. Europe’s STOXX 600 was up 0.6% and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, was 17.2. Gold’s fall started hours before the tech weakness and stocks elsewhere were higher, so we do not read it as a broad flight from risk.
• “We don’t understand the gold price”: that was the headline of an FT Alphaville column on Tuesday, subtitled “Maybe we never did.” This morning is an example: gold fell 1% while the dollar was flat, Treasury yields were a little lower and Fed hike odds dipped.

Silver price today: down 2.7%, low at $52.35

Spot silver is $52.50, down $1.47 from Wednesday’s close of $53.97. It fell in each of gold’s selling bursts and further each time: from its overnight high of $54.39 at 9:15 PM ET to $53.18 by 11:15 PM ET, below $53 from 1:45 AM ET, and to its low of $52.35 at 7:45 AM ET. It broke its Wednesday low of $53.30 at 11:00 PM ET and has not closed a 15-minute bar back above $53 since. Silver is 7.8% below its Oct 16 close of $56.97, against gold’s 3.4%.

The gold/silver ratio (how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys) is 76.7, up from 75.4 at Wednesday’s close. It reached 76.73 at 7:45 AM ET, at silver’s low. Silver’s fall was 2.6 times gold’s in percentage terms, more than its usual 1.4 to 1.8 times (see below). We found no silver-specific news; the selling came at the same times as gold’s.

Gold/silver ratio, past two weeks

Gold/silver ratio: how it has moved with gold over 90 days

Using daily COMEX futures closes for the 90 days from July 31 to Oct 28 (63 trading days), here is how the ratio behaves when gold moves:

• Silver moves with gold, but further. Daily gold and silver moves had a correlation of 0.83, and silver’s daily move was about 1.4 times gold’s. Over the past 20 trading days it has been about 1.8 times.
• The ratio usually moves against gold. On the 23 days when gold moved more than 1%, the ratio went the other way on 18. Gold rose more than 1% on 9 days, and the ratio fell on 6 of them; gold fell more than 1% on 14 days, and the ratio rose on 12.
• Lately, silver has lagged on the way down and not caught up on the way up. In the past month the ratio rose by about 0.49 on an average day when gold fell, and was unchanged (−0.02) on an average day when gold rose.
• Overnight followed the pattern, and then some. The ratio fell to 74.88 at 9:00 PM ET during gold’s Asian-open rebound, then rose in each selling burst: 75.95 at 11:00 PM ET, 76.22 at 1:45 AM ET, 76.73 at 7:45 AM ET. It has stayed above 76 since 1:45 AM ET.
• Where it sits: Wednesday’s futures close of 75.79 was the highest in the 90 days, and this morning’s futures ratio, about 76.8, is above it. The 90-day low was 65.65 on Sep 9 and the middle value 68.5.

Gold/silver ratio: where 76.7 sits in the longer history

From daily COMEX futures closes since 2000, and the 2-year Treasury yield from the Federal Reserve:

• The last time the ratio was this high was Nov 26, 2025, when it closed at 78.7 with gold at $4,165 and silver at $52.92. What followed was silver’s run to its record: a month later the ratio was 62.2, and three months later 60.2, with silver up 67% and gold up 28% from Nov 26. That is one episode, during an unusual silver rally, not a forecast.
• A year ago (Oct 28, 2025) the ratio was 84.5, with gold at $3,983 and silver at $47.12. Since then gold futures are up 1.7% and silver 13.5%, so the ratio is 8.7 points lower than a year ago even after this autumn’s rise.
• Before gold’s record: the ratio was 87.7 in late July 2025, six months before gold’s record close of $5,318.40 on Jan 29, 2026; 84.5 three months before; 62.2 a month before; and 46.6 on the day. Silver’s record close, $115.08, came on Jan 26, with the ratio at 44.2, its low for that run. In that rally, silver outpaced gold and a falling ratio came with gold making new highs.
• Since the record: gold futures are down 23.8% and silver 53.5%, and the ratio has risen from 44 to 76. Over the same stretch the 2-year Treasury yield, the market rate most tied to Fed expectations, rose from 3.53% to 4.70%.
• Hawkish days have hit silver harder. Since gold’s record, on the 29 days when the 2-year yield rose 0.05 point or more, gold fell on 22, by 1.1% on average; silver fell 2.0% on average and fell further than gold on 19; the ratio rose on 19. On the 20 days when the 2-year yield fell 0.05 point or more, gold and silver both rose about 0.75% and the ratio was flat on average. So in this stretch, hawkish rate moves have pushed gold down with silver falling harder, while dovish moves have not brought silver back faster. That one-way pattern is how the ratio has climbed. Overnight did not fit it: both metals fell while the 2-year yield slipped and December hike odds dipped.
• Other times the ratio jumped to this level: since 2000 it has crossed above 76.5 after spending weeks below 72 three times (January 2003, October 2008, August 2021). Three months later the ratio was lower each time, by 1 to 3.5 points, and gold was down 9.4%, flat and up 4.9%. Three cases is a small sample.

In past data, a fall in gold has usually come with silver doing worse and the ratio rising, and since January’s record that has been strongest on days when rate expectations rose. Overnight, the ratio rose with no rate move behind it. That is a description of recent trading, not a forecast.

Gold and silver price levels we’re watching

Gold’s overnight range was $53, a little smaller than the typical day of about $58 over the past month. Gold is 0.6% above $4,000.

Trend check: on our monthly trend model, both metals are in a correction: their 12-month trend, after cash returns, is still up and September was a down month (readings as of Sep 30). Since 2002, gold has risen in the month after a correction month about 60% of the time; that is history, not a forecast. With two trading days left in October, gold’s live reading is weaker: if the month ended at this level, the model would read bear for gold, and gold futures would need to rise about 2.4% by Friday’s close to avoid that. Silver’s live reading is still a correction, though its 12-month cushion has narrowed to about 7%.

What the Fed is expected to do next

The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday on a 10–2 vote, with two officials voting for a hike. Fed funds futures now imply about 83% odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 9 meeting, as of 8:36 AM ET, down from about 85% at Wednesday’s close. For January 27, futures price about 37% odds of a hike at that meeting, and about 89% odds of at least one hike by then.

No Fed releases or speeches came out overnight, and none are on the Fed’s calendar through Monday. The 10-year TIPS yield, a common measure of real interest rates, was 2.67% at Wednesday’s close, up 0.03 point on the day, according to the U.S. Treasury. This morning’s data were the first test after the decision: growth and jobs were strong and core inflation steady, which keeps December in play, while the softer spending figures nudged the 2-year yield down. Friday’s wage data are next.

Economic calendar: what’s next for gold

What today’s move means if you buy physical gold or silver

Gold is about $43 cheaper than at Wednesday’s close and silver about $1.47 cheaper. Silver has fallen further, so one ounce of gold is now worth about 76.7 ounces of silver, more than at any daily close in the past 90 days. A few practical points:

• Your price is confirmed when you order. Our prices follow the live market. With the ECB at 9:15 AM ET and gold moving $53 overnight, the price you lock in is the one on screen when you place the order.
• Compare the premium over spot. Most products on our site show their “% over spot” under the price, so you can compare a coin with a bar on equal terms.
• Listed price or card price. Wire, paper check and crypto via Uphold pay the listed price. Credit or debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay pay the card price. Domestic orders paid by wire qualify for free insured shipping.
• Buying for retirement? See which coins and bars meet the fineness rules on our IRA-eligible metals page.
• Selling? We make two-way markets. Call the desk at 1-855-528-4653 for a live bid, or see how selling works.

Silver spot (XAG/USD), past two weeks

Frequently asked questions

What is the gold price today?

Spot gold was $4,024.52 an ounce at 8:41 AM ET on Oct 29, 2026, down $42.78 (1.05%) from Wednesday’s 5:00 PM ET close of $4,067.29. Overnight it traded between $4,015.76 and $4,068.88. For the current bid and ask, see our live metal prices page.

Why did gold fall overnight?

Gold fell in two bursts of selling during Asian trading hours: $29 between 9:30 and 11:15 PM ET, and $20 on gold futures between 1:30 and 2:00 AM ET. The dollar index was flat, Treasury yields edged lower and December hike odds dipped from about 85% to about 83%, so rates and the dollar did not cause it, and we found no news at those times. Gold broke Wednesday’s low of $4,024.67 and reached $4,015.76 at 4:45 AM ET.

Why is silver down so much more than gold?

Silver fell at the same times as gold but further each time: 2.72% against gold’s 1.05%, or 2.6 times as much, compared with about 1.4 to 1.8 times on a typical day over the past three months. It broke its Wednesday low of $53.30 at 11:00 PM ET and set a low of $52.35 at 7:45 AM ET. Since gold’s January record, silver has fallen harder than gold on down days and has not made up the difference on up days, which is why the gold/silver ratio has climbed to 76.7.

What did GDP and PCE inflation show, and did they move gold?

GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, above the 3.2% forecast. Core PCE prices rose 0.3% in September, as forecast, and 3.1% from a year earlier. Jobless claims fell to 194,000. Gold futures rose $7 to $8 for a few minutes as the 2-year Treasury yield fell, then spot gold returned to where it was before the release. December hike odds stayed at about 83%.

Is a 1% drop in gold a good time to buy?

We don’t give investment advice, and no one can reliably call short-term lows. Gold has fallen 1% overnight and silver 2.7%, and the ECB decision and Friday’s month-end can move prices further either way. Some buyers add on down days; others buy a fixed amount on a schedule so they don’t have to time the market, which our Auto-Buy program does automatically. Whatever you choose, compare the premium over spot and buy from a dealer that confirms your price when you order.

This note is general market commentary from the Ausecure trading desk, based on data available at 8:41 AM ET on Oct 29, 2026. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax or financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any product. Ausecure is a dealer in physical precious metals and earns revenue from the products discussed. Precious-metal prices can go down as well as up, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances, and speak with a qualified adviser if you need one, before you buy.

Sources: OANDA spot gold and silver, TVC dollar index, Treasury yields and Brent crude via TradingView; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP advance estimate, third quarter 2026; Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026); U.S. Department of Labor (weekly unemployment insurance claims, via FRED); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED (PCE price indexes, 2-year Treasury yield); CBOT 30-day fed funds futures (Ausecure calculation); U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves); Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey); European Central Bank (press release, Oct 29, 2026); Irish Times (Israel election, Oct 28); Financial Times (headlines, Oct 27 and Oct 29); Reuters (gold market report); COMEX gold and silver futures, Treasury futures, Brent futures, currencies and index data via Yahoo Finance (delayed); Federal Reserve Board calendar; Forex Factory economic calendar; Ausecure monthly trend model (COMEX front-month futures and T-bill rates via Yahoo Finance).

How this note is made: based on Ausecure’s own prices and data and the market sources listed above, then checked and approved by Ausecure before it was published.